**Oregon's all-mail voting system and record May primary turnout of 1.28 million ballots continue to shape expectations for November participation in the U.S. Senate contest.** With roughly 3.1 million active registered voters, historical midterm rates near 60% of eligible voters point to totals clustered around 1.7–1.9 million, keeping multiple brackets competitive. The uncompetitive Senate race—incumbent Democrat Jeff Merkley favored by double digits over Republican David Brock Smith—limits mobilization compared with battlegrounds, while the absence of high-profile statewide measures like the primary's gas tax proposal further tempers enthusiasm. Recent Secretary of State statements highlighting the primary milestone and urging another record provide a modest upward bias, but the lack of general-election polls and typical midterm drop-off from presidential-year levels sustain the spread across lower-to-mid ranges. Late registration drives or national political developments could still shift final certified totals.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedOregon Senate Election: Turnout
Oregon Senate Election: Turnout
2M-2.1M 29%
1.5M-1.6M 18.0%
1.7M-1.8M 14%
2.1M-2.2M 14%
NEW
NEW
Nov 3, 2026
<1.5M
28%
1.5M-1.6M
18%
1.6M-1.7M
6%
1.7M-1.8M
26%
1.8M-1.9M
8%
1.9M-2M
9%
2M-2.1M
16%
2.1M-2.2M
14%
2.2M+
11%
2M-2.1M 29%
1.5M-1.6M 18.0%
1.7M-1.8M 14%
2.1M-2.2M 14%
NEW
NEW
Nov 3, 2026
<1.5M
$153 Vol.
28%
1.5M-1.6M
$102 Vol.
18%
1.6M-1.7M
$70 Vol.
6%
1.7M-1.8M
$138 Vol.
26%
1.8M-1.9M
$57 Vol.
8%
1.9M-2M
$60 Vol.
9%
2M-2.1M
$165 Vol.
16%
2.1M-2.2M
$53 Vol.
14%
2.2M+
$81 Vol.
11%
This market will resolve according to the total number of valid votes cast in the 2026 midterm election for Senator from Oregon.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the results of the specified election are not definitively known by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
All votes certified for candidates or non-candidate options in the specified election are included. Invalidated or blank votes are not included. In ranked-choice or preferential systems, the first-round vote total will be used.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official results of the 2026 midterm election for Senator from Oregon, as published by the state electoral authority responsible for certifying the results of the election; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.**Oregon's all-mail voting system and record May primary turnout of 1.28 million ballots continue to shape expectations for November participation in the U.S. Senate contest.** With roughly 3.1 million active registered voters, historical midterm rates near 60% of eligible voters point to totals clustered around 1.7–1.9 million, keeping multiple brackets competitive. The uncompetitive Senate race—incumbent Democrat Jeff Merkley favored by double digits over Republican David Brock Smith—limits mobilization compared with battlegrounds, while the absence of high-profile statewide measures like the primary's gas tax proposal further tempers enthusiasm. Recent Secretary of State statements highlighting the primary milestone and urging another record provide a modest upward bias, but the lack of general-election polls and typical midterm drop-off from presidential-year levels sustain the spread across lower-to-mid ranges. Late registration drives or national political developments could still shift final certified totals.
This market will resolve according to the total number of valid votes cast in the 2026 midterm election for Senator from Oregon.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the results of the specified election are not definitively known by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
All votes certified for candidates or non-candidate options in the specified election are included. Invalidated or blank votes are not included. In ranked-choice or preferential systems, the first-round vote total will be used.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official results of the 2026 midterm election for Senator from Oregon, as published by the state electoral authority responsible for certifying the results of the election; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the results of the specified election are not definitively known by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
All votes certified for candidates or non-candidate options in the specified election are included. Invalidated or blank votes are not included. In ranked-choice or preferential systems, the first-round vote total will be used.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official results of the 2026 midterm election for Senator from Oregon, as published by the state electoral authority responsible for certifying the results of the election; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Market Opened: Aug 18, 2026, 10:23 AM ET
Volume
$879End Date
Nov 3, 2026Market Opened
Aug 18, 2026, 10:23 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the total number of valid votes cast in the 2026 midterm election for Senator from Oregon.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the results of the specified election are not definitively known by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
All votes certified for candidates or non-candidate options in the specified election are included. Invalidated or blank votes are not included. In ranked-choice or preferential systems, the first-round vote total will be used.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official results of the 2026 midterm election for Senator from Oregon, as published by the state electoral authority responsible for certifying the results of the election; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.**Oregon's all-mail voting system and record May primary turnout of 1.28 million ballots continue to shape expectations for November participation in the U.S. Senate contest.** With roughly 3.1 million active registered voters, historical midterm rates near 60% of eligible voters point to totals clustered around 1.7–1.9 million, keeping multiple brackets competitive. The uncompetitive Senate race—incumbent Democrat Jeff Merkley favored by double digits over Republican David Brock Smith—limits mobilization compared with battlegrounds, while the absence of high-profile statewide measures like the primary's gas tax proposal further tempers enthusiasm. Recent Secretary of State statements highlighting the primary milestone and urging another record provide a modest upward bias, but the lack of general-election polls and typical midterm drop-off from presidential-year levels sustain the spread across lower-to-mid ranges. Late registration drives or national political developments could still shift final certified totals.
This market will resolve according to the total number of valid votes cast in the 2026 midterm election for Senator from Oregon.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the results of the specified election are not definitively known by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
All votes certified for candidates or non-candidate options in the specified election are included. Invalidated or blank votes are not included. In ranked-choice or preferential systems, the first-round vote total will be used.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official results of the 2026 midterm election for Senator from Oregon, as published by the state electoral authority responsible for certifying the results of the election; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the results of the specified election are not definitively known by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
All votes certified for candidates or non-candidate options in the specified election are included. Invalidated or blank votes are not included. In ranked-choice or preferential systems, the first-round vote total will be used.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official results of the 2026 midterm election for Senator from Oregon, as published by the state electoral authority responsible for certifying the results of the election; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volume
$879End Date
Nov 3, 2026Market Opened
Aug 18, 2026, 10:23 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...**Oregon's all-mail voting system and record May primary turnout of 1.28 million ballots continue to shape expectations for November participation in the U.S. Senate contest.** With roughly 3.1 million active registered voters, historical midterm rates near 60% of eligible voters point to totals clustered around 1.7–1.9 million, keeping multiple brackets competitive. The uncompetitive Senate race—incumbent Democrat Jeff Merkley favored by double digits over Republican David Brock Smith—limits mobilization compared with battlegrounds, while the absence of high-profile statewide measures like the primary's gas tax proposal further tempers enthusiasm. Recent Secretary of State statements highlighting the primary milestone and urging another record provide a modest upward bias, but the lack of general-election polls and typical midterm drop-off from presidential-year levels sustain the spread across lower-to-mid ranges. Late registration drives or national political developments could still shift final certified totals.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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