Recent multiple landfalls and official forecasts for above-average activity through September have positioned greater than eight tropical cyclones making landfall in China as the leading market outcome at 69% implied probability. As of early September 2026, several systems including Noul, Saudel, Dolphin, and others have already struck coastal provinces, with the National Meteorological Center projecting two to three additional landfalls or significant impacts this month alone. Developing El Niño conditions and a positive Indian Ocean Dipole are steering more westward tracks toward China’s southern and eastern coasts, consistent with historical patterns of elevated landfall frequency during such phases. With the peak season extending into October and model guidance indicating continued genesis over the western North Pacific, traders are weighting the potential for totals exceeding the long-term average of roughly eight to nine events.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHow many tropical cyclones will make landfall in China during 2026?
How many tropical cyclones will make landfall in China during 2026?
Greater than 8 69%
8 12%
6 6.6%
7 1%
$20,387 Vol.
$20,387 Vol.
Jun 30, 2027
Fewer than 5
<1%
5
<1%
6
7%
7
1%
8
12%
Greater than 8
69%
Greater than 8 69%
8 12%
6 6.6%
7 1%
$20,387 Vol.
$20,387 Vol.
Jun 30, 2027
Fewer than 5
$1,241 Vol.
<1%
5
$4,227 Vol.
<1%
6
$2,730 Vol.
7%
7
$2,228 Vol.
1%
8
$2,703 Vol.
12%
Greater than 8
$7,258 Vol.
69%
This market will resolve based on the total number of tropical cyclones recorded making landfall in China during the calendar year 2026 as published on the China Meteorological Administration (CMA) Tropical Cyclone Data Center "Landfalling TCs" page (https://tcdata.typhoon.org.cn/en/dlrdqx.html) in the annual Best Track Dataset update for 2026.
All landfalling tropical cyclones listed by the CMA on that page count toward the total, regardless of their intensity category at landfall (tropical depression, tropical storm, severe tropical storm, typhoon, severe typhoon, or super typhoon). What constitutes a landfall in China (including which mainland and island locations qualify) is determined solely by the CMA's records on that page. Each tropical cyclone is counted once toward the total, regardless of how many separate times it makes landfall.
One bracket will resolve "Yes" and all others "No".
If the CMA "Landfalling TCs" page is inaccessible or the 2026 Best Track Dataset has not been updated by June 30, 2027, resolution will instead be based on the number of tropical cyclones reported by China as making landfall for the 2026 season - counted on the same all-intensity basis - in the ESCAP/WMO Typhoon Committee Annual Session final report for the 2026 season (https://www.typhooncommittee.org).Recent multiple landfalls and official forecasts for above-average activity through September have positioned greater than eight tropical cyclones making landfall in China as the leading market outcome at 69% implied probability. As of early September 2026, several systems including Noul, Saudel, Dolphin, and others have already struck coastal provinces, with the National Meteorological Center projecting two to three additional landfalls or significant impacts this month alone. Developing El Niño conditions and a positive Indian Ocean Dipole are steering more westward tracks toward China’s southern and eastern coasts, consistent with historical patterns of elevated landfall frequency during such phases. With the peak season extending into October and model guidance indicating continued genesis over the western North Pacific, traders are weighting the potential for totals exceeding the long-term average of roughly eight to nine events.
This market will resolve based on the total number of tropical cyclones recorded making landfall in China during the calendar year 2026 as published on the China Meteorological Administration (CMA) Tropical Cyclone Data Center "Landfalling TCs" page (https://tcdata.typhoon.org.cn/en/dlrdqx.html) in the annual Best Track Dataset update for 2026.
All landfalling tropical cyclones listed by the CMA on that page count toward the total, regardless of their intensity category at landfall (tropical depression, tropical storm, severe tropical storm, typhoon, severe typhoon, or super typhoon). What constitutes a landfall in China (including which mainland and island locations qualify) is determined solely by the CMA's records on that page. Each tropical cyclone is counted once toward the total, regardless of how many separate times it makes landfall.
One bracket will resolve "Yes" and all others "No".
If the CMA "Landfalling TCs" page is inaccessible or the 2026 Best Track Dataset has not been updated by June 30, 2027, resolution will instead be based on the number of tropical cyclones reported by China as making landfall for the 2026 season - counted on the same all-intensity basis - in the ESCAP/WMO Typhoon Committee Annual Session final report for the 2026 season (https://www.typhooncommittee.org).
All landfalling tropical cyclones listed by the CMA on that page count toward the total, regardless of their intensity category at landfall (tropical depression, tropical storm, severe tropical storm, typhoon, severe typhoon, or super typhoon). What constitutes a landfall in China (including which mainland and island locations qualify) is determined solely by the CMA's records on that page. Each tropical cyclone is counted once toward the total, regardless of how many separate times it makes landfall.
One bracket will resolve "Yes" and all others "No".
If the CMA "Landfalling TCs" page is inaccessible or the 2026 Best Track Dataset has not been updated by June 30, 2027, resolution will instead be based on the number of tropical cyclones reported by China as making landfall for the 2026 season - counted on the same all-intensity basis - in the ESCAP/WMO Typhoon Committee Annual Session final report for the 2026 season (https://www.typhooncommittee.org).
Market Opened: Aug 5, 2026, 2:44 PM ET
Volume
$20,387End Date
Jun 30, 2027Market Opened
Aug 5, 2026, 2:44 PM ETResolution Source
https://tcdata.typhoon.org.cn/en/dlrdqx.htmlResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve based on the total number of tropical cyclones recorded making landfall in China during the calendar year 2026 as published on the China Meteorological Administration (CMA) Tropical Cyclone Data Center "Landfalling TCs" page (https://tcdata.typhoon.org.cn/en/dlrdqx.html) in the annual Best Track Dataset update for 2026.
All landfalling tropical cyclones listed by the CMA on that page count toward the total, regardless of their intensity category at landfall (tropical depression, tropical storm, severe tropical storm, typhoon, severe typhoon, or super typhoon). What constitutes a landfall in China (including which mainland and island locations qualify) is determined solely by the CMA's records on that page. Each tropical cyclone is counted once toward the total, regardless of how many separate times it makes landfall.
One bracket will resolve "Yes" and all others "No".
If the CMA "Landfalling TCs" page is inaccessible or the 2026 Best Track Dataset has not been updated by June 30, 2027, resolution will instead be based on the number of tropical cyclones reported by China as making landfall for the 2026 season - counted on the same all-intensity basis - in the ESCAP/WMO Typhoon Committee Annual Session final report for the 2026 season (https://www.typhooncommittee.org).Recent multiple landfalls and official forecasts for above-average activity through September have positioned greater than eight tropical cyclones making landfall in China as the leading market outcome at 69% implied probability. As of early September 2026, several systems including Noul, Saudel, Dolphin, and others have already struck coastal provinces, with the National Meteorological Center projecting two to three additional landfalls or significant impacts this month alone. Developing El Niño conditions and a positive Indian Ocean Dipole are steering more westward tracks toward China’s southern and eastern coasts, consistent with historical patterns of elevated landfall frequency during such phases. With the peak season extending into October and model guidance indicating continued genesis over the western North Pacific, traders are weighting the potential for totals exceeding the long-term average of roughly eight to nine events.
This market will resolve based on the total number of tropical cyclones recorded making landfall in China during the calendar year 2026 as published on the China Meteorological Administration (CMA) Tropical Cyclone Data Center "Landfalling TCs" page (https://tcdata.typhoon.org.cn/en/dlrdqx.html) in the annual Best Track Dataset update for 2026.
All landfalling tropical cyclones listed by the CMA on that page count toward the total, regardless of their intensity category at landfall (tropical depression, tropical storm, severe tropical storm, typhoon, severe typhoon, or super typhoon). What constitutes a landfall in China (including which mainland and island locations qualify) is determined solely by the CMA's records on that page. Each tropical cyclone is counted once toward the total, regardless of how many separate times it makes landfall.
One bracket will resolve "Yes" and all others "No".
If the CMA "Landfalling TCs" page is inaccessible or the 2026 Best Track Dataset has not been updated by June 30, 2027, resolution will instead be based on the number of tropical cyclones reported by China as making landfall for the 2026 season - counted on the same all-intensity basis - in the ESCAP/WMO Typhoon Committee Annual Session final report for the 2026 season (https://www.typhooncommittee.org).
All landfalling tropical cyclones listed by the CMA on that page count toward the total, regardless of their intensity category at landfall (tropical depression, tropical storm, severe tropical storm, typhoon, severe typhoon, or super typhoon). What constitutes a landfall in China (including which mainland and island locations qualify) is determined solely by the CMA's records on that page. Each tropical cyclone is counted once toward the total, regardless of how many separate times it makes landfall.
One bracket will resolve "Yes" and all others "No".
If the CMA "Landfalling TCs" page is inaccessible or the 2026 Best Track Dataset has not been updated by June 30, 2027, resolution will instead be based on the number of tropical cyclones reported by China as making landfall for the 2026 season - counted on the same all-intensity basis - in the ESCAP/WMO Typhoon Committee Annual Session final report for the 2026 season (https://www.typhooncommittee.org).
Volume
$20,387End Date
Jun 30, 2027Market Opened
Aug 5, 2026, 2:44 PM ETResolution Source
https://tcdata.typhoon.org.cn/en/dlrdqx.htmlResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent multiple landfalls and official forecasts for above-average activity through September have positioned greater than eight tropical cyclones making landfall in China as the leading market outcome at 69% implied probability. As of early September 2026, several systems including Noul, Saudel, Dolphin, and others have already struck coastal provinces, with the National Meteorological Center projecting two to three additional landfalls or significant impacts this month alone. Developing El Niño conditions and a positive Indian Ocean Dipole are steering more westward tracks toward China’s southern and eastern coasts, consistent with historical patterns of elevated landfall frequency during such phases. With the peak season extending into October and model guidance indicating continued genesis over the western North Pacific, traders are weighting the potential for totals exceeding the long-term average of roughly eight to nine events.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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