Persistent geopolitical tensions and direct attacks on vessels have kept visible commercial transits through the Strait of Hormuz at sharply reduced levels into early September 2026, positioning the 20-39 weekly total as the dominant market-implied outcome. Shipping data from Kpler and IMF PortWatch show daily commodity-vessel movements often limited to single digits or low teens during late August, with the week of August 31 marked by further incidents including projectile strikes, U.S. strikes on Iranian positions near Larak Island, and Iranian responses that prompted operators to favor dark transits or avoidance. This environment reflects elevated war-risk premiums, route uncertainty under Iranian unilateral schemes, and a shift toward smaller or sanctioned vessels, well below the pre-crisis baseline of roughly 100 daily transits. Trader consensus priced in these near-term disruptions while assigning low probability to a complete shutdown or rapid rebound, consistent with observed patterns of sporadic but constrained activity.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHow many ships transit the Strait of Hormuz week of August 31?
How many ships transit the Strait of Hormuz week of August 31?
20-39 80%
<20 19%
40-59 3.2%
60-79 <1%
$43,439 Vol.
$43,439 Vol.
Sep 6, 2026
<20
19%
20-39
80%
40-59
3%
60-79
1%
80+
1%
20-39 80%
<20 19%
40-59 3.2%
60-79 <1%
$43,439 Vol.
$43,439 Vol.
Sep 6, 2026
<20
$11,681 Vol.
19%
20-39
$23,902 Vol.
80%
40-59
$4,539 Vol.
3%
60-79
$1,870 Vol.
1%
80+
$1,447 Vol.
1%
This market will resolve according to the total number of transit calls that IMF Portwatch reports for the Strait of Hormuz for all days from August 31, 2026, through September 6, 2026, inclusive.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as all relevant data has been published. If the relevant data is not published within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
Only revisions to previously published data points made before all relevant data has been published will be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.Persistent geopolitical tensions and direct attacks on vessels have kept visible commercial transits through the Strait of Hormuz at sharply reduced levels into early September 2026, positioning the 20-39 weekly total as the dominant market-implied outcome. Shipping data from Kpler and IMF PortWatch show daily commodity-vessel movements often limited to single digits or low teens during late August, with the week of August 31 marked by further incidents including projectile strikes, U.S. strikes on Iranian positions near Larak Island, and Iranian responses that prompted operators to favor dark transits or avoidance. This environment reflects elevated war-risk premiums, route uncertainty under Iranian unilateral schemes, and a shift toward smaller or sanctioned vessels, well below the pre-crisis baseline of roughly 100 daily transits. Trader consensus priced in these near-term disruptions while assigning low probability to a complete shutdown or rapid rebound, consistent with observed patterns of sporadic but constrained activity.
This market will resolve according to the total number of transit calls that IMF Portwatch reports for the Strait of Hormuz for all days from August 31, 2026, through September 6, 2026, inclusive.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as all relevant data has been published. If the relevant data is not published within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
Only revisions to previously published data points made before all relevant data has been published will be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as all relevant data has been published. If the relevant data is not published within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
Only revisions to previously published data points made before all relevant data has been published will be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.
Market Opened: Aug 28, 2026, 6:00 PM ET
Volume
$43,439End Date
Sep 6, 2026Market Opened
Aug 28, 2026, 6:00 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the total number of transit calls that IMF Portwatch reports for the Strait of Hormuz for all days from August 31, 2026, through September 6, 2026, inclusive.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as all relevant data has been published. If the relevant data is not published within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
Only revisions to previously published data points made before all relevant data has been published will be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.Persistent geopolitical tensions and direct attacks on vessels have kept visible commercial transits through the Strait of Hormuz at sharply reduced levels into early September 2026, positioning the 20-39 weekly total as the dominant market-implied outcome. Shipping data from Kpler and IMF PortWatch show daily commodity-vessel movements often limited to single digits or low teens during late August, with the week of August 31 marked by further incidents including projectile strikes, U.S. strikes on Iranian positions near Larak Island, and Iranian responses that prompted operators to favor dark transits or avoidance. This environment reflects elevated war-risk premiums, route uncertainty under Iranian unilateral schemes, and a shift toward smaller or sanctioned vessels, well below the pre-crisis baseline of roughly 100 daily transits. Trader consensus priced in these near-term disruptions while assigning low probability to a complete shutdown or rapid rebound, consistent with observed patterns of sporadic but constrained activity.
This market will resolve according to the total number of transit calls that IMF Portwatch reports for the Strait of Hormuz for all days from August 31, 2026, through September 6, 2026, inclusive.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as all relevant data has been published. If the relevant data is not published within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
Only revisions to previously published data points made before all relevant data has been published will be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as all relevant data has been published. If the relevant data is not published within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
Only revisions to previously published data points made before all relevant data has been published will be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.
Volume
$43,439End Date
Sep 6, 2026Market Opened
Aug 28, 2026, 6:00 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Persistent geopolitical tensions and direct attacks on vessels have kept visible commercial transits through the Strait of Hormuz at sharply reduced levels into early September 2026, positioning the 20-39 weekly total as the dominant market-implied outcome. Shipping data from Kpler and IMF PortWatch show daily commodity-vessel movements often limited to single digits or low teens during late August, with the week of August 31 marked by further incidents including projectile strikes, U.S. strikes on Iranian positions near Larak Island, and Iranian responses that prompted operators to favor dark transits or avoidance. This environment reflects elevated war-risk premiums, route uncertainty under Iranian unilateral schemes, and a shift toward smaller or sanctioned vessels, well below the pre-crisis baseline of roughly 100 daily transits. Trader consensus priced in these near-term disruptions while assigning low probability to a complete shutdown or rapid rebound, consistent with observed patterns of sporadic but constrained activity.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
Beware of external links.
Beware of external links.
Frequently Asked Questions