Democratic House primaries in 2026 have produced an unusually high number of incumbent defeats driven by progressive challengers, generational turnover demands, and redistricting that forced direct confrontations between sitting members. At least seven Democrats have already lost renomination, including Reps. Dan Goldman and Adriano Espaillat in New York to candidates backed by Mayor Zohran Mamdani, Rep. Diana DeGette in Colorado, Rep. Shri Thanedar in Michigan, and others in Texas amid district pairings. These outcomes reflect organized left-wing efforts capitalizing on voter frustration with long-tenured representatives and internal party divisions over issues such as foreign policy and institutional priorities. With additional contested races scheduled through September in states including California and Massachusetts, trader consensus has settled on the 10-12 range as the most probable final tally, consistent with the elevated pace of upsets observed to date.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated10-12 76.0%
13-15 20.0%
7-9 2.6%
$50,816 Vol.
$50,816 Vol.
7-9
3%
10-12
76%
13-15
20%
10-12 76.0%
13-15 20.0%
7-9 2.6%
$50,816 Vol.
$50,816 Vol.
7-9
$14,495 Vol.
3%
10-12
$10,958 Vol.
76%
13-15
$4,911 Vol.
20%
The 2026 midterm elections are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026, with congressional primaries running from March through September.
This market will resolve according to the number of Democratic House incumbents who do not win their nominating election to move on to the general election as a result of the 2026 midterm primary elections.
An incumbent will be considered not to have won their election if they are not declared the winner of the election they sought, including if they withdraw, suspend, or otherwise leave the race at any point after officially registering as a candidate, regardless of the reason. Incumbents who do not officially register as candidates for reelection will not be considered.
This market will resolve based on the results of all House nominating elections, including party primaries, top-two or jungle primaries, and primaries for special elections, that are scheduled to occur between March 1 and September 30, 2026. If a required runoff for any such election or a subsequent qualifying round in a non-partisan primary system could change the market’s outcome, the market will remain open until that contest is conclusively called by this market’s resolution sources.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time of their nominating election.
Members of the House of Representatives who are "delegates” or “resident commissioners” not chosen by the people of a state are not included for purposes of resolving this market.
The resolution source for this market will be the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources have conclusively called all relevant nominating elections. If all three sources do not achieve consensus in calling the relevant races for this market, it will resolve based on official state certification of the nominating election results.Democratic House primaries in 2026 have produced an unusually high number of incumbent defeats driven by progressive challengers, generational turnover demands, and redistricting that forced direct confrontations between sitting members. At least seven Democrats have already lost renomination, including Reps. Dan Goldman and Adriano Espaillat in New York to candidates backed by Mayor Zohran Mamdani, Rep. Diana DeGette in Colorado, Rep. Shri Thanedar in Michigan, and others in Texas amid district pairings. These outcomes reflect organized left-wing efforts capitalizing on voter frustration with long-tenured representatives and internal party divisions over issues such as foreign policy and institutional priorities. With additional contested races scheduled through September in states including California and Massachusetts, trader consensus has settled on the 10-12 range as the most probable final tally, consistent with the elevated pace of upsets observed to date.
The 2026 midterm elections are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026, with congressional primaries running from March through September.
This market will resolve according to the number of Democratic House incumbents who do not win their nominating election to move on to the general election as a result of the 2026 midterm primary elections.
An incumbent will be considered not to have won their election if they are not declared the winner of the election they sought, including if they withdraw, suspend, or otherwise leave the race at any point after officially registering as a candidate, regardless of the reason. Incumbents who do not officially register as candidates for reelection will not be considered.
This market will resolve based on the results of all House nominating elections, including party primaries, top-two or jungle primaries, and primaries for special elections, that are scheduled to occur between March 1 and September 30, 2026. If a required runoff for any such election or a subsequent qualifying round in a non-partisan primary system could change the market’s outcome, the market will remain open until that contest is conclusively called by this market’s resolution sources.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time of their nominating election.
Members of the House of Representatives who are "delegates” or “resident commissioners” not chosen by the people of a state are not included for purposes of resolving this market.
The resolution source for this market will be the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources have conclusively called all relevant nominating elections. If all three sources do not achieve consensus in calling the relevant races for this market, it will resolve based on official state certification of the nominating election results.
This market will resolve according to the number of Democratic House incumbents who do not win their nominating election to move on to the general election as a result of the 2026 midterm primary elections.
An incumbent will be considered not to have won their election if they are not declared the winner of the election they sought, including if they withdraw, suspend, or otherwise leave the race at any point after officially registering as a candidate, regardless of the reason. Incumbents who do not officially register as candidates for reelection will not be considered.
This market will resolve based on the results of all House nominating elections, including party primaries, top-two or jungle primaries, and primaries for special elections, that are scheduled to occur between March 1 and September 30, 2026. If a required runoff for any such election or a subsequent qualifying round in a non-partisan primary system could change the market’s outcome, the market will remain open until that contest is conclusively called by this market’s resolution sources.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time of their nominating election.
Members of the House of Representatives who are "delegates” or “resident commissioners” not chosen by the people of a state are not included for purposes of resolving this market.
The resolution source for this market will be the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources have conclusively called all relevant nominating elections. If all three sources do not achieve consensus in calling the relevant races for this market, it will resolve based on official state certification of the nominating election results.
Market Opened: Jan 14, 2026, 2:55 PM ET
Volume
$50,816Market Opened
Jan 14, 2026, 2:55 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...The 2026 midterm elections are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026, with congressional primaries running from March through September.
This market will resolve according to the number of Democratic House incumbents who do not win their nominating election to move on to the general election as a result of the 2026 midterm primary elections.
An incumbent will be considered not to have won their election if they are not declared the winner of the election they sought, including if they withdraw, suspend, or otherwise leave the race at any point after officially registering as a candidate, regardless of the reason. Incumbents who do not officially register as candidates for reelection will not be considered.
This market will resolve based on the results of all House nominating elections, including party primaries, top-two or jungle primaries, and primaries for special elections, that are scheduled to occur between March 1 and September 30, 2026. If a required runoff for any such election or a subsequent qualifying round in a non-partisan primary system could change the market’s outcome, the market will remain open until that contest is conclusively called by this market’s resolution sources.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time of their nominating election.
Members of the House of Representatives who are "delegates” or “resident commissioners” not chosen by the people of a state are not included for purposes of resolving this market.
The resolution source for this market will be the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources have conclusively called all relevant nominating elections. If all three sources do not achieve consensus in calling the relevant races for this market, it will resolve based on official state certification of the nominating election results.Democratic House primaries in 2026 have produced an unusually high number of incumbent defeats driven by progressive challengers, generational turnover demands, and redistricting that forced direct confrontations between sitting members. At least seven Democrats have already lost renomination, including Reps. Dan Goldman and Adriano Espaillat in New York to candidates backed by Mayor Zohran Mamdani, Rep. Diana DeGette in Colorado, Rep. Shri Thanedar in Michigan, and others in Texas amid district pairings. These outcomes reflect organized left-wing efforts capitalizing on voter frustration with long-tenured representatives and internal party divisions over issues such as foreign policy and institutional priorities. With additional contested races scheduled through September in states including California and Massachusetts, trader consensus has settled on the 10-12 range as the most probable final tally, consistent with the elevated pace of upsets observed to date.
The 2026 midterm elections are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026, with congressional primaries running from March through September.
This market will resolve according to the number of Democratic House incumbents who do not win their nominating election to move on to the general election as a result of the 2026 midterm primary elections.
An incumbent will be considered not to have won their election if they are not declared the winner of the election they sought, including if they withdraw, suspend, or otherwise leave the race at any point after officially registering as a candidate, regardless of the reason. Incumbents who do not officially register as candidates for reelection will not be considered.
This market will resolve based on the results of all House nominating elections, including party primaries, top-two or jungle primaries, and primaries for special elections, that are scheduled to occur between March 1 and September 30, 2026. If a required runoff for any such election or a subsequent qualifying round in a non-partisan primary system could change the market’s outcome, the market will remain open until that contest is conclusively called by this market’s resolution sources.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time of their nominating election.
Members of the House of Representatives who are "delegates” or “resident commissioners” not chosen by the people of a state are not included for purposes of resolving this market.
The resolution source for this market will be the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources have conclusively called all relevant nominating elections. If all three sources do not achieve consensus in calling the relevant races for this market, it will resolve based on official state certification of the nominating election results.
This market will resolve according to the number of Democratic House incumbents who do not win their nominating election to move on to the general election as a result of the 2026 midterm primary elections.
An incumbent will be considered not to have won their election if they are not declared the winner of the election they sought, including if they withdraw, suspend, or otherwise leave the race at any point after officially registering as a candidate, regardless of the reason. Incumbents who do not officially register as candidates for reelection will not be considered.
This market will resolve based on the results of all House nominating elections, including party primaries, top-two or jungle primaries, and primaries for special elections, that are scheduled to occur between March 1 and September 30, 2026. If a required runoff for any such election or a subsequent qualifying round in a non-partisan primary system could change the market’s outcome, the market will remain open until that contest is conclusively called by this market’s resolution sources.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time of their nominating election.
Members of the House of Representatives who are "delegates” or “resident commissioners” not chosen by the people of a state are not included for purposes of resolving this market.
The resolution source for this market will be the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources have conclusively called all relevant nominating elections. If all three sources do not achieve consensus in calling the relevant races for this market, it will resolve based on official state certification of the nominating election results.
Volume
$50,816Market Opened
Jan 14, 2026, 2:55 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Democratic House primaries in 2026 have produced an unusually high number of incumbent defeats driven by progressive challengers, generational turnover demands, and redistricting that forced direct confrontations between sitting members. At least seven Democrats have already lost renomination, including Reps. Dan Goldman and Adriano Espaillat in New York to candidates backed by Mayor Zohran Mamdani, Rep. Diana DeGette in Colorado, Rep. Shri Thanedar in Michigan, and others in Texas amid district pairings. These outcomes reflect organized left-wing efforts capitalizing on voter frustration with long-tenured representatives and internal party divisions over issues such as foreign policy and institutional priorities. With additional contested races scheduled through September in states including California and Massachusetts, trader consensus has settled on the 10-12 range as the most probable final tally, consistent with the elevated pace of upsets observed to date.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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