Recent weather models for Panama City, Panama, show persistent cloud cover, scattered thunderstorms, and high humidity associated with the wet season and proximity to the Intertropical Convergence Zone, which are capping daytime heating and positioning 30–31°C as the most likely maximum. These conditions align with typical September patterns where frequent precipitation and reduced solar insolation prevent temperatures from reaching the 32°C+ thresholds that occur under clearer skies. Trader-implied probabilities reflect this consensus from official forecasts, with lower odds on extremes driven by the low historical frequency of significant deviations on similar dates. Updated model runs and afternoon observations will determine final resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in Panama City on September 6?
Highest temperature in Panama City on September 6?
31°C 35%
30°C 24%
32°C 19%
33°C or higher 7%
NEW
NEW
Sep 6, 2026
23°C or below
<1%
24°C
<1%
25°C
<1%
26°C
<1%
27°C
1%
28°C
3%
29°C
5%
30°C
24%
31°C
35%
32°C
19%
33°C or higher
7%
31°C 35%
30°C 24%
32°C 19%
33°C or higher 7%
NEW
NEW
Sep 6, 2026
23°C or below
$2,334 Vol.
<1%
24°C
$309 Vol.
<1%
25°C
$309 Vol.
<1%
26°C
$214 Vol.
<1%
27°C
$115 Vol.
1%
28°C
$452 Vol.
3%
29°C
$200 Vol.
5%
30°C
$842 Vol.
24%
31°C
$421 Vol.
35%
32°C
$1,010 Vol.
19%
33°C or higher
$336 Vol.
7%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Marcos A. Gelabert Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 6 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=mpmg
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent weather models for Panama City, Panama, show persistent cloud cover, scattered thunderstorms, and high humidity associated with the wet season and proximity to the Intertropical Convergence Zone, which are capping daytime heating and positioning 30–31°C as the most likely maximum. These conditions align with typical September patterns where frequent precipitation and reduced solar insolation prevent temperatures from reaching the 32°C+ thresholds that occur under clearer skies. Trader-implied probabilities reflect this consensus from official forecasts, with lower odds on extremes driven by the low historical frequency of significant deviations on similar dates. Updated model runs and afternoon observations will determine final resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Marcos A. Gelabert Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 6 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=mpmg
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=mpmg
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Sep 4, 2026, 8:56 AM ET
Volume
$6,539End Date
Sep 6, 2026Market Opened
Sep 4, 2026, 8:56 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=mpmgResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Marcos A. Gelabert Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 6 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=mpmg
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent weather models for Panama City, Panama, show persistent cloud cover, scattered thunderstorms, and high humidity associated with the wet season and proximity to the Intertropical Convergence Zone, which are capping daytime heating and positioning 30–31°C as the most likely maximum. These conditions align with typical September patterns where frequent precipitation and reduced solar insolation prevent temperatures from reaching the 32°C+ thresholds that occur under clearer skies. Trader-implied probabilities reflect this consensus from official forecasts, with lower odds on extremes driven by the low historical frequency of significant deviations on similar dates. Updated model runs and afternoon observations will determine final resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Marcos A. Gelabert Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 6 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=mpmg
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=mpmg
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$6,539End Date
Sep 6, 2026Market Opened
Sep 4, 2026, 8:56 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=mpmgResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent weather models for Panama City, Panama, show persistent cloud cover, scattered thunderstorms, and high humidity associated with the wet season and proximity to the Intertropical Convergence Zone, which are capping daytime heating and positioning 30–31°C as the most likely maximum. These conditions align with typical September patterns where frequent precipitation and reduced solar insolation prevent temperatures from reaching the 32°C+ thresholds that occur under clearer skies. Trader-implied probabilities reflect this consensus from official forecasts, with lower odds on extremes driven by the low historical frequency of significant deviations on similar dates. Updated model runs and afternoon observations will determine final resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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