Moonshot AI’s July 2026 release of the 2.8-trillion-parameter Kimi K3 model, which posted 56% accuracy on Humanity’s Last Exam with tools and 43.5% without, has anchored trader sentiment near the top of public leaderboards. This open-weights release, featuring a 1-million-token context window and strong agentic reasoning, followed earlier Kimi variants and positioned Moonshot competitively against Anthropic’s Claude Fable 5.1 (59–65%) and select OpenAI GPT-5.5/6 entries. HLE’s 2,500 expert-authored questions across math, science, and multimodal domains make incremental gains difficult, yet Moonshot’s open strategy supports further tool-use optimization and fine-tuning through year-end. Key upcoming catalysts include potential new Kimi iterations or community-driven improvements before the December 31 resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated$41,480 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
45%+
91%
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50%
55%+
26%
60%+
15%
65%+
8%
$41,480 Vol.
45%+
$9,340 Vol.
91%
50%+
$15,395 Vol.
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55%+
$5,845 Vol.
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$9,309 Vol.
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$1,591 Vol.
8%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any Moonshot Kimi model achieves at least the specified accuracy on Humanity’s Last Exam by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For resolution, “accuracy” refers solely to the value labeled “HLE Accuracy” or a clear equivalent metric if the data’s presentation or terminology is restructured, regardless of the model’s Calibration Error or any other displayed metric.
The resolution source will be the official Humanity’s Last Exam leaderboard at https://agi.safe.ai/. If the resolution source becomes unavailable during the listed timeframe, this market will remain open to allow the relevant data to become available again. If the source remains unavailable after the end of the listed timeframe or is otherwise confirmed to be permanently unavailable, official Humanity’s Last Exam results published elsewhere may be used. If no official alternative source is available, this market will resolve to "No".Moonshot AI’s July 2026 release of the 2.8-trillion-parameter Kimi K3 model, which posted 56% accuracy on Humanity’s Last Exam with tools and 43.5% without, has anchored trader sentiment near the top of public leaderboards. This open-weights release, featuring a 1-million-token context window and strong agentic reasoning, followed earlier Kimi variants and positioned Moonshot competitively against Anthropic’s Claude Fable 5.1 (59–65%) and select OpenAI GPT-5.5/6 entries. HLE’s 2,500 expert-authored questions across math, science, and multimodal domains make incremental gains difficult, yet Moonshot’s open strategy supports further tool-use optimization and fine-tuning through year-end. Key upcoming catalysts include potential new Kimi iterations or community-driven improvements before the December 31 resolution.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any Moonshot Kimi model achieves at least the specified accuracy on Humanity’s Last Exam by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For resolution, “accuracy” refers solely to the value labeled “HLE Accuracy” or a clear equivalent metric if the data’s presentation or terminology is restructured, regardless of the model’s Calibration Error or any other displayed metric.
The resolution source will be the official Humanity’s Last Exam leaderboard at https://agi.safe.ai/. If the resolution source becomes unavailable during the listed timeframe, this market will remain open to allow the relevant data to become available again. If the source remains unavailable after the end of the listed timeframe or is otherwise confirmed to be permanently unavailable, official Humanity’s Last Exam results published elsewhere may be used. If no official alternative source is available, this market will resolve to "No".
For resolution, “accuracy” refers solely to the value labeled “HLE Accuracy” or a clear equivalent metric if the data’s presentation or terminology is restructured, regardless of the model’s Calibration Error or any other displayed metric.
The resolution source will be the official Humanity’s Last Exam leaderboard at https://agi.safe.ai/. If the resolution source becomes unavailable during the listed timeframe, this market will remain open to allow the relevant data to become available again. If the source remains unavailable after the end of the listed timeframe or is otherwise confirmed to be permanently unavailable, official Humanity’s Last Exam results published elsewhere may be used. If no official alternative source is available, this market will resolve to "No".
Market Opened: Jul 23, 2026, 6:43 PM ET
Volume
$41,480End Date
Jan 1, 2027Market Opened
Jul 23, 2026, 6:43 PM ETResolution Source
https://agi.safe.ai/Resolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if any Moonshot Kimi model achieves at least the specified accuracy on Humanity’s Last Exam by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For resolution, “accuracy” refers solely to the value labeled “HLE Accuracy” or a clear equivalent metric if the data’s presentation or terminology is restructured, regardless of the model’s Calibration Error or any other displayed metric.
The resolution source will be the official Humanity’s Last Exam leaderboard at https://agi.safe.ai/. If the resolution source becomes unavailable during the listed timeframe, this market will remain open to allow the relevant data to become available again. If the source remains unavailable after the end of the listed timeframe or is otherwise confirmed to be permanently unavailable, official Humanity’s Last Exam results published elsewhere may be used. If no official alternative source is available, this market will resolve to "No".Moonshot AI’s July 2026 release of the 2.8-trillion-parameter Kimi K3 model, which posted 56% accuracy on Humanity’s Last Exam with tools and 43.5% without, has anchored trader sentiment near the top of public leaderboards. This open-weights release, featuring a 1-million-token context window and strong agentic reasoning, followed earlier Kimi variants and positioned Moonshot competitively against Anthropic’s Claude Fable 5.1 (59–65%) and select OpenAI GPT-5.5/6 entries. HLE’s 2,500 expert-authored questions across math, science, and multimodal domains make incremental gains difficult, yet Moonshot’s open strategy supports further tool-use optimization and fine-tuning through year-end. Key upcoming catalysts include potential new Kimi iterations or community-driven improvements before the December 31 resolution.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any Moonshot Kimi model achieves at least the specified accuracy on Humanity’s Last Exam by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For resolution, “accuracy” refers solely to the value labeled “HLE Accuracy” or a clear equivalent metric if the data’s presentation or terminology is restructured, regardless of the model’s Calibration Error or any other displayed metric.
The resolution source will be the official Humanity’s Last Exam leaderboard at https://agi.safe.ai/. If the resolution source becomes unavailable during the listed timeframe, this market will remain open to allow the relevant data to become available again. If the source remains unavailable after the end of the listed timeframe or is otherwise confirmed to be permanently unavailable, official Humanity’s Last Exam results published elsewhere may be used. If no official alternative source is available, this market will resolve to "No".
For resolution, “accuracy” refers solely to the value labeled “HLE Accuracy” or a clear equivalent metric if the data’s presentation or terminology is restructured, regardless of the model’s Calibration Error or any other displayed metric.
The resolution source will be the official Humanity’s Last Exam leaderboard at https://agi.safe.ai/. If the resolution source becomes unavailable during the listed timeframe, this market will remain open to allow the relevant data to become available again. If the source remains unavailable after the end of the listed timeframe or is otherwise confirmed to be permanently unavailable, official Humanity’s Last Exam results published elsewhere may be used. If no official alternative source is available, this market will resolve to "No".
Volume
$41,480End Date
Jan 1, 2027Market Opened
Jul 23, 2026, 6:43 PM ETResolution Source
https://agi.safe.ai/Resolver
0x65070BE91...Moonshot AI’s July 2026 release of the 2.8-trillion-parameter Kimi K3 model, which posted 56% accuracy on Humanity’s Last Exam with tools and 43.5% without, has anchored trader sentiment near the top of public leaderboards. This open-weights release, featuring a 1-million-token context window and strong agentic reasoning, followed earlier Kimi variants and positioned Moonshot competitively against Anthropic’s Claude Fable 5.1 (59–65%) and select OpenAI GPT-5.5/6 entries. HLE’s 2,500 expert-authored questions across math, science, and multimodal domains make incremental gains difficult, yet Moonshot’s open strategy supports further tool-use optimization and fine-tuning through year-end. Key upcoming catalysts include potential new Kimi iterations or community-driven improvements before the December 31 resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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