**Elevated inflation pressures and a hawkish shift under new Fed Chair Kevin Warsh are the main forces supporting the 71.5% market-implied probability of at least one federal funds rate hike in 2026.** The target range stands at 3.50-3.75%, with June 2026 SEP projections marking up year-end PCE inflation to 3.6% amid energy and supply shocks from Middle East tensions, while nine of 19 policymakers penciled in higher rates by year-end. Resilient labor data, including August nonfarm payrolls of +162,000 and a steady 4.1% unemployment rate, have reinforced the case for tighter policy. Recent communications, including Warsh’s Jackson Hole remarks emphasizing the need for price stability, have lifted near-term hike odds, with futures markets assigning roughly 60% probability to a September 16 move. Key upcoming catalysts include the September FOMC decision and subsequent inflation and employment releases through year-end.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated72% chance
$8,753,792 Vol.
$8,753,792 Vol.
Dec 8, 2026
72% chance
$8,753,792 Vol.
$8,753,792 Vol.
Dec 8, 2026
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is increased at any point between January 1, 2026 and the Fed's December 2026 meeting, currently scheduled for December 8-9, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may not resolve to "No" until the Fed has released its rate change decision following its December meeting.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.**Elevated inflation pressures and a hawkish shift under new Fed Chair Kevin Warsh are the main forces supporting the 71.5% market-implied probability of at least one federal funds rate hike in 2026.**
The target range stands at 3.50-3.75%, with June 2026 SEP projections marking up year-end PCE inflation to 3.6% amid energy and supply shocks from Middle East tensions, while nine of 19 policymakers penciled in higher rates by year-end. Resilient labor data, including August nonfarm payrolls of +162,000 and a steady 4.1% unemployment rate, have reinforced the case for tighter policy. Recent communications, including Warsh’s Jackson Hole remarks emphasizing the need for price stability, have lifted near-term hike odds, with futures markets assigning roughly 60% probability to a September 16 move. Key upcoming catalysts include the September FOMC decision and subsequent inflation and employment releases through year-end.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is increased at any point between January 1, 2026 and the Fed's December 2026 meeting, currently scheduled for December 8-9, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may not resolve to "No" until the Fed has released its rate change decision following its December meeting.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market may not resolve to "No" until the Fed has released its rate change decision following its December meeting.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Market Opened: Dec 10, 2025, 4:09 PM ET
Volume
$8,753,792End Date
Dec 9, 2026Market Opened
Dec 10, 2025, 4:09 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is increased at any point between January 1, 2026 and the Fed's December 2026 meeting, currently scheduled for December 8-9, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may not resolve to "No" until the Fed has released its rate change decision following its December meeting.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.**Elevated inflation pressures and a hawkish shift under new Fed Chair Kevin Warsh are the main forces supporting the 71.5% market-implied probability of at least one federal funds rate hike in 2026.**
The target range stands at 3.50-3.75%, with June 2026 SEP projections marking up year-end PCE inflation to 3.6% amid energy and supply shocks from Middle East tensions, while nine of 19 policymakers penciled in higher rates by year-end. Resilient labor data, including August nonfarm payrolls of +162,000 and a steady 4.1% unemployment rate, have reinforced the case for tighter policy. Recent communications, including Warsh’s Jackson Hole remarks emphasizing the need for price stability, have lifted near-term hike odds, with futures markets assigning roughly 60% probability to a September 16 move. Key upcoming catalysts include the September FOMC decision and subsequent inflation and employment releases through year-end.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is increased at any point between January 1, 2026 and the Fed's December 2026 meeting, currently scheduled for December 8-9, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may not resolve to "No" until the Fed has released its rate change decision following its December meeting.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market may not resolve to "No" until the Fed has released its rate change decision following its December meeting.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volume
$8,753,792End Date
Dec 9, 2026Market Opened
Dec 10, 2025, 4:09 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...**Elevated inflation pressures and a hawkish shift under new Fed Chair Kevin Warsh are the main forces supporting the 71.5% market-implied probability of at least one federal funds rate hike in 2026.** The target range stands at 3.50-3.75%, with June 2026 SEP projections marking up year-end PCE inflation to 3.6% amid energy and supply shocks from Middle East tensions, while nine of 19 policymakers penciled in higher rates by year-end. Resilient labor data, including August nonfarm payrolls of +162,000 and a steady 4.1% unemployment rate, have reinforced the case for tighter policy. Recent communications, including Warsh’s Jackson Hole remarks emphasizing the need for price stability, have lifted near-term hike odds, with futures markets assigning roughly 60% probability to a September 16 move. Key upcoming catalysts include the September FOMC decision and subsequent inflation and employment releases through year-end.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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