Elevated inflation remains the dominant driver behind the 71.5% market-implied probability of at least one Federal Reserve rate hike in 2026. The Fed’s preferred PCE measure has climbed to around 4.1% year-over-year through May, with core readings near 3.4%, well above the 2% target, prompting Chair Kevin Warsh and a near-majority of FOMC participants to signal tighter policy in the June dot plot. A resilient labor market, highlighted by August’s 162,000 payroll gain and steady 4.1% unemployment, has reduced urgency for easing while geopolitical supply shocks continue to support energy prices. Traders are now pricing a September hike at roughly 60% odds ahead of the mid-month FOMC meeting and fresh CPI data, reflecting aggregated capital-at-risk consensus on the inflation trajectory rather than any certainty of action.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated72% chance
$8,751,468 Vol.
$8,751,468 Vol.
Dec 8, 2026
72% chance
$8,751,468 Vol.
$8,751,468 Vol.
Dec 8, 2026
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is increased at any point between January 1, 2026 and the Fed's December 2026 meeting, currently scheduled for December 8-9, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may not resolve to "No" until the Fed has released its rate change decision following its December meeting.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Elevated inflation remains the dominant driver behind the 71.5% market-implied probability of at least one Federal Reserve rate hike in 2026. The Fed’s preferred PCE measure has climbed to around 4.1% year-over-year through May, with core readings near 3.4%, well above the 2% target, prompting Chair Kevin Warsh and a near-majority of FOMC participants to signal tighter policy in the June dot plot. A resilient labor market, highlighted by August’s 162,000 payroll gain and steady 4.1% unemployment, has reduced urgency for easing while geopolitical supply shocks continue to support energy prices. Traders are now pricing a September hike at roughly 60% odds ahead of the mid-month FOMC meeting and fresh CPI data, reflecting aggregated capital-at-risk consensus on the inflation trajectory rather than any certainty of action.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is increased at any point between January 1, 2026 and the Fed's December 2026 meeting, currently scheduled for December 8-9, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may not resolve to "No" until the Fed has released its rate change decision following its December meeting.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market may not resolve to "No" until the Fed has released its rate change decision following its December meeting.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Market Opened: Dec 10, 2025, 4:09 PM ET
Volume
$8,751,468End Date
Dec 9, 2026Market Opened
Dec 10, 2025, 4:09 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is increased at any point between January 1, 2026 and the Fed's December 2026 meeting, currently scheduled for December 8-9, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may not resolve to "No" until the Fed has released its rate change decision following its December meeting.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Elevated inflation remains the dominant driver behind the 71.5% market-implied probability of at least one Federal Reserve rate hike in 2026. The Fed’s preferred PCE measure has climbed to around 4.1% year-over-year through May, with core readings near 3.4%, well above the 2% target, prompting Chair Kevin Warsh and a near-majority of FOMC participants to signal tighter policy in the June dot plot. A resilient labor market, highlighted by August’s 162,000 payroll gain and steady 4.1% unemployment, has reduced urgency for easing while geopolitical supply shocks continue to support energy prices. Traders are now pricing a September hike at roughly 60% odds ahead of the mid-month FOMC meeting and fresh CPI data, reflecting aggregated capital-at-risk consensus on the inflation trajectory rather than any certainty of action.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is increased at any point between January 1, 2026 and the Fed's December 2026 meeting, currently scheduled for December 8-9, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may not resolve to "No" until the Fed has released its rate change decision following its December meeting.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market may not resolve to "No" until the Fed has released its rate change decision following its December meeting.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volume
$8,751,468End Date
Dec 9, 2026Market Opened
Dec 10, 2025, 4:09 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Elevated inflation remains the dominant driver behind the 71.5% market-implied probability of at least one Federal Reserve rate hike in 2026. The Fed’s preferred PCE measure has climbed to around 4.1% year-over-year through May, with core readings near 3.4%, well above the 2% target, prompting Chair Kevin Warsh and a near-majority of FOMC participants to signal tighter policy in the June dot plot. A resilient labor market, highlighted by August’s 162,000 payroll gain and steady 4.1% unemployment, has reduced urgency for easing while geopolitical supply shocks continue to support energy prices. Traders are now pricing a September hike at roughly 60% odds ahead of the mid-month FOMC meeting and fresh CPI data, reflecting aggregated capital-at-risk consensus on the inflation trajectory rather than any certainty of action.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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