Market-implied odds for Federal Reserve policy decisions from September through December reflect a closely contested outlook, with Pause-Pause-Pause holding a modest 27.5% lead as traders weigh persistent inflation pressures against cooling labor market signals. Recent economic releases, including the latest CPI and nonfarm payrolls data, have kept the implied rate path uncertain, with markets pricing in a narrow range of possibilities rather than a decisive easing or tightening cycle. Key swing factors include upcoming FOMC communications, Treasury yield movements, and any revisions to growth or inflation forecasts that could shift the balance toward additional hikes or sustained pauses. The distribution across multiple scenarios underscores the wisdom of crowds in this real-money venue, where participants incorporate forward-looking benchmarks like the Fed funds rate and historical policy responses to similar data environments.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedPause–Pause–Pause 28%
Hike–Pause–Pause 19%
Pause–Hike–Hike 11%
Other 10%
$10,996 Vol.
$10,996 Vol.
Dec 9, 2026
Hike–Pause–Hike
9%
Hike–Pause–Pause
19%
Hike–Hike–Hike
5%
Hike–Hike–Pause
6%
Pause–Pause–Hike
7%
Pause–Pause–Pause
28%
Pause–Hike–Hike
11%
Pause–Hike–Pause
6%
Other
10%
Pause–Pause–Pause 28%
Hike–Pause–Pause 19%
Pause–Hike–Hike 11%
Other 10%
$10,996 Vol.
$10,996 Vol.
Dec 9, 2026
Hike–Pause–Hike
$314 Vol.
9%
Hike–Pause–Pause
$301 Vol.
19%
Hike–Hike–Hike
$216 Vol.
5%
Hike–Hike–Pause
$237 Vol.
6%
Pause–Pause–Hike
$253 Vol.
7%
Pause–Pause–Pause
$8,975 Vol.
28%
Pause–Hike–Hike
$237 Vol.
11%
Pause–Hike–Pause
$214 Vol.
6%
Other
$249 Vol.
10%
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds rate. The decisions on the target federal funds rate are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: September 15-16; October 27-28; and December 8-9.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate cut will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate changes outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htmMarket-implied odds for Federal Reserve policy decisions from September through December reflect a closely contested outlook, with Pause-Pause-Pause holding a modest 27.5% lead as traders weigh persistent inflation pressures against cooling labor market signals. Recent economic releases, including the latest CPI and nonfarm payrolls data, have kept the implied rate path uncertain, with markets pricing in a narrow range of possibilities rather than a decisive easing or tightening cycle. Key swing factors include upcoming FOMC communications, Treasury yield movements, and any revisions to growth or inflation forecasts that could shift the balance toward additional hikes or sustained pauses. The distribution across multiple scenarios underscores the wisdom of crowds in this real-money venue, where participants incorporate forward-looking benchmarks like the Fed funds rate and historical policy responses to similar data environments.
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds rate. The decisions on the target federal funds rate are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: September 15-16; October 27-28; and December 8-9.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate cut will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate changes outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: September 15-16; October 27-28; and December 8-9.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate cut will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate changes outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm
Market Opened: Sep 2, 2026, 4:24 PM ET
Volume
$10,996End Date
Dec 9, 2026Market Opened
Sep 2, 2026, 4:24 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds rate. The decisions on the target federal funds rate are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: September 15-16; October 27-28; and December 8-9.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate cut will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate changes outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htmMarket-implied odds for Federal Reserve policy decisions from September through December reflect a closely contested outlook, with Pause-Pause-Pause holding a modest 27.5% lead as traders weigh persistent inflation pressures against cooling labor market signals. Recent economic releases, including the latest CPI and nonfarm payrolls data, have kept the implied rate path uncertain, with markets pricing in a narrow range of possibilities rather than a decisive easing or tightening cycle. Key swing factors include upcoming FOMC communications, Treasury yield movements, and any revisions to growth or inflation forecasts that could shift the balance toward additional hikes or sustained pauses. The distribution across multiple scenarios underscores the wisdom of crowds in this real-money venue, where participants incorporate forward-looking benchmarks like the Fed funds rate and historical policy responses to similar data environments.
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds rate. The decisions on the target federal funds rate are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: September 15-16; October 27-28; and December 8-9.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate cut will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate changes outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: September 15-16; October 27-28; and December 8-9.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate cut will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate changes outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm
Volume
$10,996End Date
Dec 9, 2026Market Opened
Sep 2, 2026, 4:24 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Market-implied odds for Federal Reserve policy decisions from September through December reflect a closely contested outlook, with Pause-Pause-Pause holding a modest 27.5% lead as traders weigh persistent inflation pressures against cooling labor market signals. Recent economic releases, including the latest CPI and nonfarm payrolls data, have kept the implied rate path uncertain, with markets pricing in a narrow range of possibilities rather than a decisive easing or tightening cycle. Key swing factors include upcoming FOMC communications, Treasury yield movements, and any revisions to growth or inflation forecasts that could shift the balance toward additional hikes or sustained pauses. The distribution across multiple scenarios underscores the wisdom of crowds in this real-money venue, where participants incorporate forward-looking benchmarks like the Fed funds rate and historical policy responses to similar data environments.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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