Recent U.S. labor market resilience, highlighted by August payroll gains of 162,000 and a steady 4.1% unemployment rate, has elevated market-implied odds of Federal Reserve tightening through year-end, balancing the 44.5% probabilities assigned to no change versus a 25 basis point hike at the December 8-9 FOMC meeting. Elevated inflation—core PCE near 3.3% year-over-year amid energy shocks and supply pressures—supports the hawkish tilt under Chair Kevin Warsh, who has shifted away from easing guidance. Traders weigh these factors against moderating three-month core inflation trends and upcoming September CPI and PPI releases, which could shift the closely contested pricing ahead of the September 15-16 policy decision and subsequent meetings.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedNo change 45%
25 bps increase 45%
25 bps decrease 6.6%
50+ bps increase 1.6%
$534,961 Vol.
$534,961 Vol.
Dec 9, 2026
50+ bps decrease
2%
25 bps decrease
7%
No change
45%
25 bps increase
45%
50+ bps increase
2%
No change 45%
25 bps increase 45%
25 bps decrease 6.6%
50+ bps increase 1.6%
$534,961 Vol.
$534,961 Vol.
Dec 9, 2026
50+ bps decrease
$84,993 Vol.
2%
25 bps decrease
$136,485 Vol.
7%
No change
$86,064 Vol.
45%
25 bps increase
$138,626 Vol.
45%
50+ bps increase
$88,794 Vol.
2%
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's December 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for December 8-9, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their December meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.Recent U.S. labor market resilience, highlighted by August payroll gains of 162,000 and a steady 4.1% unemployment rate, has elevated market-implied odds of Federal Reserve tightening through year-end, balancing the 44.5% probabilities assigned to no change versus a 25 basis point hike at the December 8-9 FOMC meeting. Elevated inflation—core PCE near 3.3% year-over-year amid energy shocks and supply pressures—supports the hawkish tilt under Chair Kevin Warsh, who has shifted away from easing guidance. Traders weigh these factors against moderating three-month core inflation trends and upcoming September CPI and PPI releases, which could shift the closely contested pricing ahead of the September 15-16 policy decision and subsequent meetings.
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's December 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for December 8-9, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their December meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's December 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for December 8-9, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their December meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
Market Opened: Jul 29, 2026, 8:38 PM ET
Volume
$534,961End Date
Dec 9, 2026Market Opened
Jul 29, 2026, 8:38 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's December 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for December 8-9, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their December meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.Recent U.S. labor market resilience, highlighted by August payroll gains of 162,000 and a steady 4.1% unemployment rate, has elevated market-implied odds of Federal Reserve tightening through year-end, balancing the 44.5% probabilities assigned to no change versus a 25 basis point hike at the December 8-9 FOMC meeting. Elevated inflation—core PCE near 3.3% year-over-year amid energy shocks and supply pressures—supports the hawkish tilt under Chair Kevin Warsh, who has shifted away from easing guidance. Traders weigh these factors against moderating three-month core inflation trends and upcoming September CPI and PPI releases, which could shift the closely contested pricing ahead of the September 15-16 policy decision and subsequent meetings.
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's December 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for December 8-9, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their December meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's December 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for December 8-9, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their December meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
Volume
$534,961End Date
Dec 9, 2026Market Opened
Jul 29, 2026, 8:38 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent U.S. labor market resilience, highlighted by August payroll gains of 162,000 and a steady 4.1% unemployment rate, has elevated market-implied odds of Federal Reserve tightening through year-end, balancing the 44.5% probabilities assigned to no change versus a 25 basis point hike at the December 8-9 FOMC meeting. Elevated inflation—core PCE near 3.3% year-over-year amid energy shocks and supply pressures—supports the hawkish tilt under Chair Kevin Warsh, who has shifted away from easing guidance. Traders weigh these factors against moderating three-month core inflation trends and upcoming September CPI and PPI releases, which could shift the closely contested pricing ahead of the September 15-16 policy decision and subsequent meetings.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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