OpenAI's infrastructure has faced repeated strain in recent months, with ChatGPT logging dozens of incidents since mid-2025 and a notable global degradation on September 3, 2026, that hit 15 components including conversations, logins, file uploads, image generation, and voice mode just as the company teased its GPT-6 Astra model. Official status data shows roughly 99.6% uptime over the past 90 days, equating to about eight hours of partial or full disruption, while similar issues have affected competing services like Claude. Traders are watching whether rapid scaling, new agentic features, and the Astra rollout—now in limited testing—will trigger a complete outage before year-end resolution dates, especially given historical patterns of elevated errors during high-traffic periods.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated$13,813 Vol.
Sep 30, 2026
September 30
39%
$13,813 Vol.
September 30
$4,330 Vol.
39%
This market will resolve to “Yes” if OpenAI's ChatGPT experiences any incident classified as 'Full Outage' as of the time it is marked as “Resolved” between market creation and the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Only incidents listing ChatGPT under 'Affected components' will be considered. Incidents labeled as affecting 'APIs,' 'Codex,' 'FedRamp,' or 'Ads Platform,' but not ChatGPT, will have no bearing on the resolution of this market.
Classifications of an incident while it is ongoing will have no bearing on the resolution of this market. Only classifications of events that are resolved will be considered.
Qualifying incidents include outages and other issues classified as 'Full Outage' when they are resolved, during this market's above-specified timeframe.
An incident resolved outside this market’s timeframe will only qualify if ongoing at this market’s resolution time, in which case the market will remain open until that incident is marked as “Resolved,” and resolution will be based on the first impact classification thereafter, regardless of subsequent revisions or corrections.
Revisions that upgrade an incident’s impact classification to 'Full Outage' will qualify if the incident was resolved and the revision is published within this market’s timeframe.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official system status information published by OpenAI on status.openai.com; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.OpenAI's infrastructure has faced repeated strain in recent months, with ChatGPT logging dozens of incidents since mid-2025 and a notable global degradation on September 3, 2026, that hit 15 components including conversations, logins, file uploads, image generation, and voice mode just as the company teased its GPT-6 Astra model. Official status data shows roughly 99.6% uptime over the past 90 days, equating to about eight hours of partial or full disruption, while similar issues have affected competing services like Claude. Traders are watching whether rapid scaling, new agentic features, and the Astra rollout—now in limited testing—will trigger a complete outage before year-end resolution dates, especially given historical patterns of elevated errors during high-traffic periods.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if OpenAI's ChatGPT experiences any incident classified as 'Full Outage' as of the time it is marked as “Resolved” between market creation and the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Only incidents listing ChatGPT under 'Affected components' will be considered. Incidents labeled as affecting 'APIs,' 'Codex,' 'FedRamp,' or 'Ads Platform,' but not ChatGPT, will have no bearing on the resolution of this market.
Classifications of an incident while it is ongoing will have no bearing on the resolution of this market. Only classifications of events that are resolved will be considered.
Qualifying incidents include outages and other issues classified as 'Full Outage' when they are resolved, during this market's above-specified timeframe.
An incident resolved outside this market’s timeframe will only qualify if ongoing at this market’s resolution time, in which case the market will remain open until that incident is marked as “Resolved,” and resolution will be based on the first impact classification thereafter, regardless of subsequent revisions or corrections.
Revisions that upgrade an incident’s impact classification to 'Full Outage' will qualify if the incident was resolved and the revision is published within this market’s timeframe.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official system status information published by OpenAI on status.openai.com; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Only incidents listing ChatGPT under 'Affected components' will be considered. Incidents labeled as affecting 'APIs,' 'Codex,' 'FedRamp,' or 'Ads Platform,' but not ChatGPT, will have no bearing on the resolution of this market.
Classifications of an incident while it is ongoing will have no bearing on the resolution of this market. Only classifications of events that are resolved will be considered.
Qualifying incidents include outages and other issues classified as 'Full Outage' when they are resolved, during this market's above-specified timeframe.
An incident resolved outside this market’s timeframe will only qualify if ongoing at this market’s resolution time, in which case the market will remain open until that incident is marked as “Resolved,” and resolution will be based on the first impact classification thereafter, regardless of subsequent revisions or corrections.
Revisions that upgrade an incident’s impact classification to 'Full Outage' will qualify if the incident was resolved and the revision is published within this market’s timeframe.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official system status information published by OpenAI on status.openai.com; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Market Opened: Aug 26, 2026, 6:15 AM ET
Volume
$13,813End Date
Sep 30, 2026Market Opened
Aug 26, 2026, 6:15 AM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if OpenAI's ChatGPT experiences any incident classified as 'Full Outage' as of the time it is marked as “Resolved” between market creation and the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Only incidents listing ChatGPT under 'Affected components' will be considered. Incidents labeled as affecting 'APIs,' 'Codex,' 'FedRamp,' or 'Ads Platform,' but not ChatGPT, will have no bearing on the resolution of this market.
Classifications of an incident while it is ongoing will have no bearing on the resolution of this market. Only classifications of events that are resolved will be considered.
Qualifying incidents include outages and other issues classified as 'Full Outage' when they are resolved, during this market's above-specified timeframe.
An incident resolved outside this market’s timeframe will only qualify if ongoing at this market’s resolution time, in which case the market will remain open until that incident is marked as “Resolved,” and resolution will be based on the first impact classification thereafter, regardless of subsequent revisions or corrections.
Revisions that upgrade an incident’s impact classification to 'Full Outage' will qualify if the incident was resolved and the revision is published within this market’s timeframe.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official system status information published by OpenAI on status.openai.com; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.OpenAI's infrastructure has faced repeated strain in recent months, with ChatGPT logging dozens of incidents since mid-2025 and a notable global degradation on September 3, 2026, that hit 15 components including conversations, logins, file uploads, image generation, and voice mode just as the company teased its GPT-6 Astra model. Official status data shows roughly 99.6% uptime over the past 90 days, equating to about eight hours of partial or full disruption, while similar issues have affected competing services like Claude. Traders are watching whether rapid scaling, new agentic features, and the Astra rollout—now in limited testing—will trigger a complete outage before year-end resolution dates, especially given historical patterns of elevated errors during high-traffic periods.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if OpenAI's ChatGPT experiences any incident classified as 'Full Outage' as of the time it is marked as “Resolved” between market creation and the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Only incidents listing ChatGPT under 'Affected components' will be considered. Incidents labeled as affecting 'APIs,' 'Codex,' 'FedRamp,' or 'Ads Platform,' but not ChatGPT, will have no bearing on the resolution of this market.
Classifications of an incident while it is ongoing will have no bearing on the resolution of this market. Only classifications of events that are resolved will be considered.
Qualifying incidents include outages and other issues classified as 'Full Outage' when they are resolved, during this market's above-specified timeframe.
An incident resolved outside this market’s timeframe will only qualify if ongoing at this market’s resolution time, in which case the market will remain open until that incident is marked as “Resolved,” and resolution will be based on the first impact classification thereafter, regardless of subsequent revisions or corrections.
Revisions that upgrade an incident’s impact classification to 'Full Outage' will qualify if the incident was resolved and the revision is published within this market’s timeframe.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official system status information published by OpenAI on status.openai.com; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Only incidents listing ChatGPT under 'Affected components' will be considered. Incidents labeled as affecting 'APIs,' 'Codex,' 'FedRamp,' or 'Ads Platform,' but not ChatGPT, will have no bearing on the resolution of this market.
Classifications of an incident while it is ongoing will have no bearing on the resolution of this market. Only classifications of events that are resolved will be considered.
Qualifying incidents include outages and other issues classified as 'Full Outage' when they are resolved, during this market's above-specified timeframe.
An incident resolved outside this market’s timeframe will only qualify if ongoing at this market’s resolution time, in which case the market will remain open until that incident is marked as “Resolved,” and resolution will be based on the first impact classification thereafter, regardless of subsequent revisions or corrections.
Revisions that upgrade an incident’s impact classification to 'Full Outage' will qualify if the incident was resolved and the revision is published within this market’s timeframe.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official system status information published by OpenAI on status.openai.com; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volume
$13,813End Date
Sep 30, 2026Market Opened
Aug 26, 2026, 6:15 AM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...OpenAI's infrastructure has faced repeated strain in recent months, with ChatGPT logging dozens of incidents since mid-2025 and a notable global degradation on September 3, 2026, that hit 15 components including conversations, logins, file uploads, image generation, and voice mode just as the company teased its GPT-6 Astra model. Official status data shows roughly 99.6% uptime over the past 90 days, equating to about eight hours of partial or full disruption, while similar issues have affected competing services like Claude. Traders are watching whether rapid scaling, new agentic features, and the Astra rollout—now in limited testing—will trigger a complete outage before year-end resolution dates, especially given historical patterns of elevated errors during high-traffic periods.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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