The overwhelming 97.9% implied probability on "Other" reflects trader consensus that none of the listed Claude Opus variants will top AI leaderboards on September 7, given the market's resolution in under 24 hours and the absence of confirmed releases or benchmark breakthroughs from Anthropic. As of early September 2026, established models from OpenAI, Google, and xAI continue to lead on key metrics such as reasoning, coding, and multimodal performance, with typical development cycles favoring incremental updates over sudden leaps. This positioning aligns with historical patterns where frontier large language models require weeks or months between announcements and verified dominance. A realistic challenge could emerge only from an unexpected same-day capability demonstration or third-party evaluation that shifts the competitive landscape, though such events remain rare given the time needed for independent testing and adoption.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedOther 97.7%
claude-opus-5-max 1.1%
claude-opus-5-high <1%
claude-opus-4-6-high <1%
$58,531 Vol.
$58,531 Vol.
Sep 7, 2026
Other
98%
claude-opus-5-max
1%
claude-opus-5-high
1%
claude-opus-4-6-high
1%
Other 97.7%
claude-opus-5-max 1.1%
claude-opus-5-high <1%
claude-opus-4-6-high <1%
$58,531 Vol.
$58,531 Vol.
Sep 7, 2026
Other
$30,131 Vol.
98%
claude-opus-5-max
$13,283 Vol.
1%
claude-opus-5-high
$10,234 Vol.
1%
claude-opus-4-6-high
$4,883 Vol.
1%
This market will resolve according to the model that has the highest arena rank based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on the specified date, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market.
Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
No new model will be added to this market after market creation. Any model not explicitly listed in this market will be encompassed under the "Other" option.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of model names as listed in this market group (full string, including suffixes such as “-high” and “-max”) will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if two models remain tied, “claude-opus-5-high” would be ranked ahead of “claude-opus-5-max”). This market will resolve to the model that comes first according to this order.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".The overwhelming 97.9% implied probability on "Other" reflects trader consensus that none of the listed Claude Opus variants will top AI leaderboards on September 7, given the market's resolution in under 24 hours and the absence of confirmed releases or benchmark breakthroughs from Anthropic. As of early September 2026, established models from OpenAI, Google, and xAI continue to lead on key metrics such as reasoning, coding, and multimodal performance, with typical development cycles favoring incremental updates over sudden leaps. This positioning aligns with historical patterns where frontier large language models require weeks or months between announcements and verified dominance. A realistic challenge could emerge only from an unexpected same-day capability demonstration or third-party evaluation that shifts the competitive landscape, though such events remain rare given the time needed for independent testing and adoption.
This market will resolve according to the model that has the highest arena rank based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on the specified date, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market.
Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
No new model will be added to this market after market creation. Any model not explicitly listed in this market will be encompassed under the "Other" option.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of model names as listed in this market group (full string, including suffixes such as “-high” and “-max”) will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if two models remain tied, “claude-opus-5-high” would be ranked ahead of “claude-opus-5-max”). This market will resolve to the model that comes first according to this order.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market.
Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
No new model will be added to this market after market creation. Any model not explicitly listed in this market will be encompassed under the "Other" option.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of model names as listed in this market group (full string, including suffixes such as “-high” and “-max”) will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if two models remain tied, “claude-opus-5-high” would be ranked ahead of “claude-opus-5-max”). This market will resolve to the model that comes first according to this order.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Market Opened: Aug 21, 2026, 2:42 PM ET
Volume
$58,531End Date
Sep 7, 2026Market Opened
Aug 21, 2026, 2:42 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the model that has the highest arena rank based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on the specified date, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market.
Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
No new model will be added to this market after market creation. Any model not explicitly listed in this market will be encompassed under the "Other" option.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of model names as listed in this market group (full string, including suffixes such as “-high” and “-max”) will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if two models remain tied, “claude-opus-5-high” would be ranked ahead of “claude-opus-5-max”). This market will resolve to the model that comes first according to this order.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".The overwhelming 97.9% implied probability on "Other" reflects trader consensus that none of the listed Claude Opus variants will top AI leaderboards on September 7, given the market's resolution in under 24 hours and the absence of confirmed releases or benchmark breakthroughs from Anthropic. As of early September 2026, established models from OpenAI, Google, and xAI continue to lead on key metrics such as reasoning, coding, and multimodal performance, with typical development cycles favoring incremental updates over sudden leaps. This positioning aligns with historical patterns where frontier large language models require weeks or months between announcements and verified dominance. A realistic challenge could emerge only from an unexpected same-day capability demonstration or third-party evaluation that shifts the competitive landscape, though such events remain rare given the time needed for independent testing and adoption.
This market will resolve according to the model that has the highest arena rank based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on the specified date, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market.
Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
No new model will be added to this market after market creation. Any model not explicitly listed in this market will be encompassed under the "Other" option.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of model names as listed in this market group (full string, including suffixes such as “-high” and “-max”) will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if two models remain tied, “claude-opus-5-high” would be ranked ahead of “claude-opus-5-max”). This market will resolve to the model that comes first according to this order.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market.
Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
No new model will be added to this market after market creation. Any model not explicitly listed in this market will be encompassed under the "Other" option.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of model names as listed in this market group (full string, including suffixes such as “-high” and “-max”) will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if two models remain tied, “claude-opus-5-high” would be ranked ahead of “claude-opus-5-max”). This market will resolve to the model that comes first according to this order.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Volume
$58,531End Date
Sep 7, 2026Market Opened
Aug 21, 2026, 2:42 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...The overwhelming 97.9% implied probability on "Other" reflects trader consensus that none of the listed Claude Opus variants will top AI leaderboards on September 7, given the market's resolution in under 24 hours and the absence of confirmed releases or benchmark breakthroughs from Anthropic. As of early September 2026, established models from OpenAI, Google, and xAI continue to lead on key metrics such as reasoning, coding, and multimodal performance, with typical development cycles favoring incremental updates over sudden leaps. This positioning aligns with historical patterns where frontier large language models require weeks or months between announcements and verified dominance. A realistic challenge could emerge only from an unexpected same-day capability demonstration or third-party evaluation that shifts the competitive landscape, though such events remain rare given the time needed for independent testing and adoption.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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Frequently Asked Questions