Claude Fable 5.1 Max leads market-implied odds at 64.5% because Anthropic released it on September 1, 2026, immediately claiming top spots on independent benchmarks such as the Artificial Analysis Intelligence Index and BenchAlign v5 with scores around 83, ahead of GPT-6 Astra and prior Fable 5 variants. Traders view the model’s 1M-token context, adaptive reasoning, and strong results on coding and agentic tasks as decisive for short-term leaderboards. Low single-digit odds on Opus 5 variants reflect their earlier July positioning and lower peak scores, while the 32.5% on Other captures residual uncertainty around rapid OpenAI or Google updates before the September 14 snapshot. No major counter-releases have surfaced in the past week to shift the current consensus.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updatedclaude-fable-5.1-max 65%
Other 33%
claude-opus-5-high 3.2%
claude-opus-5-max 2.2%
NEW
NEW
Sep 14, 2026
claude-fable-5.1-max
65%
Other
33%
claude-opus-5-high
3%
claude-opus-5-max
2%
claude-opus-4-6-high
1%
claude-fable-5.1-max 65%
Other 33%
claude-opus-5-high 3.2%
claude-opus-5-max 2.2%
NEW
NEW
Sep 14, 2026
claude-fable-5.1-max
$4,180 Vol.
65%
Other
$5,042 Vol.
33%
claude-opus-5-high
$145 Vol.
3%
claude-opus-5-max
$148 Vol.
2%
claude-opus-4-6-high
$254 Vol.
1%
This market will resolve according to the model that has the highest arena rank based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on the specified date, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market.
Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
No new model will be added to this market after market creation. Any model not explicitly listed in this market will be encompassed under the "Other" option.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of model names as listed in this market group (full string, including suffixes such as “-high” and “-max”) will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if two models remain tied, “claude-opus-5-high” would be ranked ahead of “claude-opus-5-max”). This market will resolve to the model that comes first according to this order.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".Claude Fable 5.1 Max leads market-implied odds at 64.5% because Anthropic released it on September 1, 2026, immediately claiming top spots on independent benchmarks such as the Artificial Analysis Intelligence Index and BenchAlign v5 with scores around 83, ahead of GPT-6 Astra and prior Fable 5 variants. Traders view the model’s 1M-token context, adaptive reasoning, and strong results on coding and agentic tasks as decisive for short-term leaderboards. Low single-digit odds on Opus 5 variants reflect their earlier July positioning and lower peak scores, while the 32.5% on Other captures residual uncertainty around rapid OpenAI or Google updates before the September 14 snapshot. No major counter-releases have surfaced in the past week to shift the current consensus.
This market will resolve according to the model that has the highest arena rank based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on the specified date, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market.
Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
No new model will be added to this market after market creation. Any model not explicitly listed in this market will be encompassed under the "Other" option.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of model names as listed in this market group (full string, including suffixes such as “-high” and “-max”) will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if two models remain tied, “claude-opus-5-high” would be ranked ahead of “claude-opus-5-max”). This market will resolve to the model that comes first according to this order.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market.
Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
No new model will be added to this market after market creation. Any model not explicitly listed in this market will be encompassed under the "Other" option.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of model names as listed in this market group (full string, including suffixes such as “-high” and “-max”) will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if two models remain tied, “claude-opus-5-high” would be ranked ahead of “claude-opus-5-max”). This market will resolve to the model that comes first according to this order.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Market Opened: Sep 3, 2026, 10:16 AM ET
Volume
$9,768End Date
Sep 14, 2026Market Opened
Sep 3, 2026, 10:16 AM ETResolution Source
https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-controlResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the model that has the highest arena rank based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on the specified date, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market.
Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
No new model will be added to this market after market creation. Any model not explicitly listed in this market will be encompassed under the "Other" option.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of model names as listed in this market group (full string, including suffixes such as “-high” and “-max”) will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if two models remain tied, “claude-opus-5-high” would be ranked ahead of “claude-opus-5-max”). This market will resolve to the model that comes first according to this order.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".Claude Fable 5.1 Max leads market-implied odds at 64.5% because Anthropic released it on September 1, 2026, immediately claiming top spots on independent benchmarks such as the Artificial Analysis Intelligence Index and BenchAlign v5 with scores around 83, ahead of GPT-6 Astra and prior Fable 5 variants. Traders view the model’s 1M-token context, adaptive reasoning, and strong results on coding and agentic tasks as decisive for short-term leaderboards. Low single-digit odds on Opus 5 variants reflect their earlier July positioning and lower peak scores, while the 32.5% on Other captures residual uncertainty around rapid OpenAI or Google updates before the September 14 snapshot. No major counter-releases have surfaced in the past week to shift the current consensus.
This market will resolve according to the model that has the highest arena rank based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on the specified date, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market.
Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
No new model will be added to this market after market creation. Any model not explicitly listed in this market will be encompassed under the "Other" option.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of model names as listed in this market group (full string, including suffixes such as “-high” and “-max”) will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if two models remain tied, “claude-opus-5-high” would be ranked ahead of “claude-opus-5-max”). This market will resolve to the model that comes first according to this order.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market.
Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
No new model will be added to this market after market creation. Any model not explicitly listed in this market will be encompassed under the "Other" option.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of model names as listed in this market group (full string, including suffixes such as “-high” and “-max”) will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if two models remain tied, “claude-opus-5-high” would be ranked ahead of “claude-opus-5-max”). This market will resolve to the model that comes first according to this order.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Volume
$9,768End Date
Sep 14, 2026Market Opened
Sep 3, 2026, 10:16 AM ETResolution Source
https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-controlResolver
0x69c47De9D...Claude Fable 5.1 Max leads market-implied odds at 64.5% because Anthropic released it on September 1, 2026, immediately claiming top spots on independent benchmarks such as the Artificial Analysis Intelligence Index and BenchAlign v5 with scores around 83, ahead of GPT-6 Astra and prior Fable 5 variants. Traders view the model’s 1M-token context, adaptive reasoning, and strong results on coding and agentic tasks as decisive for short-term leaderboards. Low single-digit odds on Opus 5 variants reflect their earlier July positioning and lower peak scores, while the 32.5% on Other captures residual uncertainty around rapid OpenAI or Google updates before the September 14 snapshot. No major counter-releases have surfaced in the past week to shift the current consensus.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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