Recent observational data from Copernicus ERA5 and other agencies show August 2026 as the warmest on record globally, with anomalies near 1.65°C above the 1850–1900 baseline, driven by a rapidly intensifying El Niño event superimposed on the long-term warming trend. This aligns with the market-implied odds concentrating at 1.38–1.41°C, reflecting trader consensus on final verified surface temperature products after accounting for methodological differences across datasets like NOAA, NASA GISS, and Berkeley Earth. The strengthening El Niño, with Niño 3.4 indices exceeding prior records, has boosted tropical and global means, though satellite lower-troposphere readings (e.g., UAH) indicate somewhat lower departures. Upcoming agency updates in the coming weeks will clarify exact resolution values amid inherent inter-dataset variability.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedAugust 2026 Temperature Increase (ºC) (HIGHER STRIKES)
August 2026 Temperature Increase (ºC) (HIGHER STRIKES)
1.38–1.41ºC 90%
1.42–1.45ºC 4%
1.34–1.37ºC 1.3%
>1.45ºC <1%
$20,513 Vol.
$20,513 Vol.
Aug 31, 2026
<1.30ºC
<1%
1.30–1.33ºC
<1%
1.34–1.37ºC
1%
1.38–1.41ºC
90%
1.42–1.45ºC
7%
>1.45ºC
<1%
1.38–1.41ºC 90%
1.42–1.45ºC 4%
1.34–1.37ºC 1.3%
>1.45ºC <1%
$20,513 Vol.
$20,513 Vol.
Aug 31, 2026
<1.30ºC
$657 Vol.
<1%
1.30–1.33ºC
$1,462 Vol.
<1%
1.34–1.37ºC
$3,129 Vol.
1%
1.38–1.41ºC
$4,488 Vol.
90%
1.42–1.45ºC
$9,247 Vol.
7%
>1.45ºC
$1,531 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve according to the value reported by the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for August 2026 when it is released.
An anomaly within a named bracket for August 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for August 2026 is later revised.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Aug" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt).
If NASA’s “Global Temperature Index” is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for August 2026 is provided by NASA by October 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.Recent observational data from Copernicus ERA5 and other agencies show August 2026 as the warmest on record globally, with anomalies near 1.65°C above the 1850–1900 baseline, driven by a rapidly intensifying El Niño event superimposed on the long-term warming trend. This aligns with the market-implied odds concentrating at 1.38–1.41°C, reflecting trader consensus on final verified surface temperature products after accounting for methodological differences across datasets like NOAA, NASA GISS, and Berkeley Earth. The strengthening El Niño, with Niño 3.4 indices exceeding prior records, has boosted tropical and global means, though satellite lower-troposphere readings (e.g., UAH) indicate somewhat lower departures. Upcoming agency updates in the coming weeks will clarify exact resolution values amid inherent inter-dataset variability.
This market will resolve according to the value reported by the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for August 2026 when it is released.
An anomaly within a named bracket for August 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for August 2026 is later revised.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Aug" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt).
If NASA’s “Global Temperature Index” is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for August 2026 is provided by NASA by October 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
An anomaly within a named bracket for August 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for August 2026 is later revised.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Aug" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt).
If NASA’s “Global Temperature Index” is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for August 2026 is provided by NASA by October 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
Market Opened: Aug 14, 2026, 2:30 PM ET
Volume
$20,513End Date
Sep 1, 2026Market Opened
Aug 14, 2026, 2:30 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the value reported by the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for August 2026 when it is released.
An anomaly within a named bracket for August 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for August 2026 is later revised.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Aug" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt).
If NASA’s “Global Temperature Index” is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for August 2026 is provided by NASA by October 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.Recent observational data from Copernicus ERA5 and other agencies show August 2026 as the warmest on record globally, with anomalies near 1.65°C above the 1850–1900 baseline, driven by a rapidly intensifying El Niño event superimposed on the long-term warming trend. This aligns with the market-implied odds concentrating at 1.38–1.41°C, reflecting trader consensus on final verified surface temperature products after accounting for methodological differences across datasets like NOAA, NASA GISS, and Berkeley Earth. The strengthening El Niño, with Niño 3.4 indices exceeding prior records, has boosted tropical and global means, though satellite lower-troposphere readings (e.g., UAH) indicate somewhat lower departures. Upcoming agency updates in the coming weeks will clarify exact resolution values amid inherent inter-dataset variability.
This market will resolve according to the value reported by the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for August 2026 when it is released.
An anomaly within a named bracket for August 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for August 2026 is later revised.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Aug" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt).
If NASA’s “Global Temperature Index” is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for August 2026 is provided by NASA by October 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
An anomaly within a named bracket for August 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for August 2026 is later revised.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Aug" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt).
If NASA’s “Global Temperature Index” is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for August 2026 is provided by NASA by October 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
Volume
$20,513End Date
Sep 1, 2026Market Opened
Aug 14, 2026, 2:30 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent observational data from Copernicus ERA5 and other agencies show August 2026 as the warmest on record globally, with anomalies near 1.65°C above the 1850–1900 baseline, driven by a rapidly intensifying El Niño event superimposed on the long-term warming trend. This aligns with the market-implied odds concentrating at 1.38–1.41°C, reflecting trader consensus on final verified surface temperature products after accounting for methodological differences across datasets like NOAA, NASA GISS, and Berkeley Earth. The strengthening El Niño, with Niño 3.4 indices exceeding prior records, has boosted tropical and global means, though satellite lower-troposphere readings (e.g., UAH) indicate somewhat lower departures. Upcoming agency updates in the coming weeks will clarify exact resolution values amid inherent inter-dataset variability.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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