**A strengthening major El Niño event, combined with record global sea surface temperatures, drove the overwhelming market consensus that August 1–3, 2026, ranked as the hottest on record.** Official monitoring showed the extra-polar ocean reaching a new daily high of 21.1°C on August 22, with early-month conditions reflecting sustained marine heat and subtropical air intrusions. This produced extreme heat across Europe, where Austria recorded its hottest August in 260 years and multiple 40°C+ readings in early August, alongside record warmth in India and other regions. UAH satellite data placed the full month as the second-warmest August globally behind only 2024. Trader positioning reflects verified observational anomalies and model consensus from agencies such as Copernicus and NOAA, with limited realistic paths to revision—primarily potential post-processing adjustments in specific temperature datasets—given the breadth of corroborating surface and tropospheric measurements.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated2026 August 1st, 2nd, 3rd hottest on record?
2026 August 1st, 2nd, 3rd hottest on record?
1st hottest 98.2%
3rd hottest 1.7%
4th or lower <1%
2nd hottest <1%
$2,268 Vol.
$2,268 Vol.
Aug 30, 2026
1st hottest
98%
2nd hottest
<1%
3rd hottest
2%
4th or lower
1%
1st hottest 98.2%
3rd hottest 1.7%
4th or lower <1%
2nd hottest <1%
$2,268 Vol.
$2,268 Vol.
Aug 30, 2026
1st hottest
$764 Vol.
98%
2nd hottest
$563 Vol.
<1%
3rd hottest
$526 Vol.
2%
4th or lower
$415 Vol.
1%
This market will resolve based on the data for the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for August 2026 versus the data points available for all other Augusts on record.
Note: If August 2026 is tied for first, second, or third hottest with another year, it will qualify for the bracket it ties with.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figures found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Aug" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt). If NASA's "Global Temperature Index" is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for August 2026 is provided by NASA by September 30, 2026, 11:59:59 PM ET, a consensus of credible sources will be used to resolve this market.**A strengthening major El Niño event, combined with record global sea surface temperatures, drove the overwhelming market consensus that August 1–3, 2026, ranked as the hottest on record.** Official monitoring showed the extra-polar ocean reaching a new daily high of 21.1°C on August 22, with early-month conditions reflecting sustained marine heat and subtropical air intrusions. This produced extreme heat across Europe, where Austria recorded its hottest August in 260 years and multiple 40°C+ readings in early August, alongside record warmth in India and other regions. UAH satellite data placed the full month as the second-warmest August globally behind only 2024. Trader positioning reflects verified observational anomalies and model consensus from agencies such as Copernicus and NOAA, with limited realistic paths to revision—primarily potential post-processing adjustments in specific temperature datasets—given the breadth of corroborating surface and tropospheric measurements.
This market will resolve based on the data for the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for August 2026 versus the data points available for all other Augusts on record.
Note: If August 2026 is tied for first, second, or third hottest with another year, it will qualify for the bracket it ties with.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figures found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Aug" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt). If NASA's "Global Temperature Index" is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for August 2026 is provided by NASA by September 30, 2026, 11:59:59 PM ET, a consensus of credible sources will be used to resolve this market.
Note: If August 2026 is tied for first, second, or third hottest with another year, it will qualify for the bracket it ties with.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figures found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Aug" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt). If NASA's "Global Temperature Index" is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for August 2026 is provided by NASA by September 30, 2026, 11:59:59 PM ET, a consensus of credible sources will be used to resolve this market.
Market Opened: Jul 28, 2026, 1:44 PM ET
Volume
$2,268End Date
Sep 1, 2026Market Opened
Jul 28, 2026, 1:44 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve based on the data for the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for August 2026 versus the data points available for all other Augusts on record.
Note: If August 2026 is tied for first, second, or third hottest with another year, it will qualify for the bracket it ties with.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figures found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Aug" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt). If NASA's "Global Temperature Index" is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for August 2026 is provided by NASA by September 30, 2026, 11:59:59 PM ET, a consensus of credible sources will be used to resolve this market.**A strengthening major El Niño event, combined with record global sea surface temperatures, drove the overwhelming market consensus that August 1–3, 2026, ranked as the hottest on record.** Official monitoring showed the extra-polar ocean reaching a new daily high of 21.1°C on August 22, with early-month conditions reflecting sustained marine heat and subtropical air intrusions. This produced extreme heat across Europe, where Austria recorded its hottest August in 260 years and multiple 40°C+ readings in early August, alongside record warmth in India and other regions. UAH satellite data placed the full month as the second-warmest August globally behind only 2024. Trader positioning reflects verified observational anomalies and model consensus from agencies such as Copernicus and NOAA, with limited realistic paths to revision—primarily potential post-processing adjustments in specific temperature datasets—given the breadth of corroborating surface and tropospheric measurements.
This market will resolve based on the data for the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for August 2026 versus the data points available for all other Augusts on record.
Note: If August 2026 is tied for first, second, or third hottest with another year, it will qualify for the bracket it ties with.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figures found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Aug" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt). If NASA's "Global Temperature Index" is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for August 2026 is provided by NASA by September 30, 2026, 11:59:59 PM ET, a consensus of credible sources will be used to resolve this market.
Note: If August 2026 is tied for first, second, or third hottest with another year, it will qualify for the bracket it ties with.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figures found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Aug" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt). If NASA's "Global Temperature Index" is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for August 2026 is provided by NASA by September 30, 2026, 11:59:59 PM ET, a consensus of credible sources will be used to resolve this market.
Volume
$2,268End Date
Sep 1, 2026Market Opened
Jul 28, 2026, 1:44 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...**A strengthening major El Niño event, combined with record global sea surface temperatures, drove the overwhelming market consensus that August 1–3, 2026, ranked as the hottest on record.** Official monitoring showed the extra-polar ocean reaching a new daily high of 21.1°C on August 22, with early-month conditions reflecting sustained marine heat and subtropical air intrusions. This produced extreme heat across Europe, where Austria recorded its hottest August in 260 years and multiple 40°C+ readings in early August, alongside record warmth in India and other regions. UAH satellite data placed the full month as the second-warmest August globally behind only 2024. Trader positioning reflects verified observational anomalies and model consensus from agencies such as Copernicus and NOAA, with limited realistic paths to revision—primarily potential post-processing adjustments in specific temperature datasets—given the breadth of corroborating surface and tropospheric measurements.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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