**Trader consensus heavily favors "No" at 90.5% because major Climate Clock deadlines—typically derived from carbon budget calculations using data from the IPCC, Global Carbon Project, and Mercator Research Institute—update infrequently and show limited movement under current emission trends.** These tools project the remaining time until cumulative CO₂ emissions exhaust the budget for a 50–67% chance of limiting long-term warming to 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels. Recent versions display deadlines in 2029–2030, reflecting ongoing annual emissions near 40 GtCO₂ and modest revisions to budgets since the Paris Agreement era. With no large-scale global emissions decline or new authoritative carbon budget reassessment expected before year-end, the displayed deadline is unlikely to shift materially by December 31, 2026. Updates occur annually or quarterly at most, driven by verified observational data rather than short-term fluctuations. A realistic scenario that could alter the clock includes a major new IPCC assessment or Global Carbon Project report substantially revising the remaining budget, or an unprecedented emissions surge/drop captured in final 2026 data. Current trajectories and the short remaining window make such shifts improbable, supporting the market-implied odds as a skin-in-the-game assessment of scientific update cycles.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedWill the Climate Clock's 1.5°C deadline change by...?
Will the Climate Clock's 1.5°C deadline change by...?
10% chance
$13,265 Vol.
$13,265 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
10% chance
$13,265 Vol.
$13,265 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
Each market asks whether the “Deadline” to limit global warming to 1.5°C shown by the Climate Clock (https://climateclock.world) will change before that market's listed date.
A market resolves to “Yes” if, at any point on or before its listed date, 11:59 PM ET, the Climate Clock's published 1.5°C Deadline is more than 30 days earlier or more than 30 days later than July 22, 2029. Otherwise, that market resolves to “No”.
The Climate Clock's 1.5°C Deadline is published as a machine-readable timestamp in its public data feed at https://api.climateclock.world/v2/clock.json (the “timestamp” value of the carbon-deadline module), which is the same target the on-site countdown at https://climateclock.world displays. As of this market's creation, that Deadline is July 22, 2029 (timestamp 2029-07-22T16:00:00+00:00). The ordinary second-by-second ticking of the countdown toward the Deadline does not constitute a change; only a change to the published Deadline date itself qualifies.
Because a qualifying change is permanent once published, every market with a listed date on or after the change will resolve “Yes”, and markets whose listed date has already passed without a qualifying change will have resolved “No”. If the Climate Clock and its public data feed both become permanently unavailable before a qualifying change is published, all unresolved markets will resolve to “No”.**Trader consensus heavily favors "No" at 90.5% because major Climate Clock deadlines—typically derived from carbon budget calculations using data from the IPCC, Global Carbon Project, and Mercator Research Institute—update infrequently and show limited movement under current emission trends.**
These tools project the remaining time until cumulative CO₂ emissions exhaust the budget for a 50–67% chance of limiting long-term warming to 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels. Recent versions display deadlines in 2029–2030, reflecting ongoing annual emissions near 40 GtCO₂ and modest revisions to budgets since the Paris Agreement era. With no large-scale global emissions decline or new authoritative carbon budget reassessment expected before year-end, the displayed deadline is unlikely to shift materially by December 31, 2026.
Updates occur annually or quarterly at most, driven by verified observational data rather than short-term fluctuations. A realistic scenario that could alter the clock includes a major new IPCC assessment or Global Carbon Project report substantially revising the remaining budget, or an unprecedented emissions surge/drop captured in final 2026 data. Current trajectories and the short remaining window make such shifts improbable, supporting the market-implied odds as a skin-in-the-game assessment of scientific update cycles.
Each market asks whether the “Deadline” to limit global warming to 1.5°C shown by the Climate Clock (https://climateclock.world) will change before that market's listed date.
A market resolves to “Yes” if, at any point on or before its listed date, 11:59 PM ET, the Climate Clock's published 1.5°C Deadline is more than 30 days earlier or more than 30 days later than July 22, 2029. Otherwise, that market resolves to “No”.
The Climate Clock's 1.5°C Deadline is published as a machine-readable timestamp in its public data feed at https://api.climateclock.world/v2/clock.json (the “timestamp” value of the carbon-deadline module), which is the same target the on-site countdown at https://climateclock.world displays. As of this market's creation, that Deadline is July 22, 2029 (timestamp 2029-07-22T16:00:00+00:00). The ordinary second-by-second ticking of the countdown toward the Deadline does not constitute a change; only a change to the published Deadline date itself qualifies.
Because a qualifying change is permanent once published, every market with a listed date on or after the change will resolve “Yes”, and markets whose listed date has already passed without a qualifying change will have resolved “No”. If the Climate Clock and its public data feed both become permanently unavailable before a qualifying change is published, all unresolved markets will resolve to “No”.
A market resolves to “Yes” if, at any point on or before its listed date, 11:59 PM ET, the Climate Clock's published 1.5°C Deadline is more than 30 days earlier or more than 30 days later than July 22, 2029. Otherwise, that market resolves to “No”.
The Climate Clock's 1.5°C Deadline is published as a machine-readable timestamp in its public data feed at https://api.climateclock.world/v2/clock.json (the “timestamp” value of the carbon-deadline module), which is the same target the on-site countdown at https://climateclock.world displays. As of this market's creation, that Deadline is July 22, 2029 (timestamp 2029-07-22T16:00:00+00:00). The ordinary second-by-second ticking of the countdown toward the Deadline does not constitute a change; only a change to the published Deadline date itself qualifies.
Because a qualifying change is permanent once published, every market with a listed date on or after the change will resolve “Yes”, and markets whose listed date has already passed without a qualifying change will have resolved “No”. If the Climate Clock and its public data feed both become permanently unavailable before a qualifying change is published, all unresolved markets will resolve to “No”.
Market Opened: Aug 19, 2026, 6:40 PM ET
Volume
$13,265End Date
Jan 1, 2027Market Opened
Aug 19, 2026, 6:40 PM ETResolution Source
https://climateclock.worldResolver
0x65070BE91...Each market asks whether the “Deadline” to limit global warming to 1.5°C shown by the Climate Clock (https://climateclock.world) will change before that market's listed date.
A market resolves to “Yes” if, at any point on or before its listed date, 11:59 PM ET, the Climate Clock's published 1.5°C Deadline is more than 30 days earlier or more than 30 days later than July 22, 2029. Otherwise, that market resolves to “No”.
The Climate Clock's 1.5°C Deadline is published as a machine-readable timestamp in its public data feed at https://api.climateclock.world/v2/clock.json (the “timestamp” value of the carbon-deadline module), which is the same target the on-site countdown at https://climateclock.world displays. As of this market's creation, that Deadline is July 22, 2029 (timestamp 2029-07-22T16:00:00+00:00). The ordinary second-by-second ticking of the countdown toward the Deadline does not constitute a change; only a change to the published Deadline date itself qualifies.
Because a qualifying change is permanent once published, every market with a listed date on or after the change will resolve “Yes”, and markets whose listed date has already passed without a qualifying change will have resolved “No”. If the Climate Clock and its public data feed both become permanently unavailable before a qualifying change is published, all unresolved markets will resolve to “No”.**Trader consensus heavily favors "No" at 90.5% because major Climate Clock deadlines—typically derived from carbon budget calculations using data from the IPCC, Global Carbon Project, and Mercator Research Institute—update infrequently and show limited movement under current emission trends.**
These tools project the remaining time until cumulative CO₂ emissions exhaust the budget for a 50–67% chance of limiting long-term warming to 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels. Recent versions display deadlines in 2029–2030, reflecting ongoing annual emissions near 40 GtCO₂ and modest revisions to budgets since the Paris Agreement era. With no large-scale global emissions decline or new authoritative carbon budget reassessment expected before year-end, the displayed deadline is unlikely to shift materially by December 31, 2026.
Updates occur annually or quarterly at most, driven by verified observational data rather than short-term fluctuations. A realistic scenario that could alter the clock includes a major new IPCC assessment or Global Carbon Project report substantially revising the remaining budget, or an unprecedented emissions surge/drop captured in final 2026 data. Current trajectories and the short remaining window make such shifts improbable, supporting the market-implied odds as a skin-in-the-game assessment of scientific update cycles.
Each market asks whether the “Deadline” to limit global warming to 1.5°C shown by the Climate Clock (https://climateclock.world) will change before that market's listed date.
A market resolves to “Yes” if, at any point on or before its listed date, 11:59 PM ET, the Climate Clock's published 1.5°C Deadline is more than 30 days earlier or more than 30 days later than July 22, 2029. Otherwise, that market resolves to “No”.
The Climate Clock's 1.5°C Deadline is published as a machine-readable timestamp in its public data feed at https://api.climateclock.world/v2/clock.json (the “timestamp” value of the carbon-deadline module), which is the same target the on-site countdown at https://climateclock.world displays. As of this market's creation, that Deadline is July 22, 2029 (timestamp 2029-07-22T16:00:00+00:00). The ordinary second-by-second ticking of the countdown toward the Deadline does not constitute a change; only a change to the published Deadline date itself qualifies.
Because a qualifying change is permanent once published, every market with a listed date on or after the change will resolve “Yes”, and markets whose listed date has already passed without a qualifying change will have resolved “No”. If the Climate Clock and its public data feed both become permanently unavailable before a qualifying change is published, all unresolved markets will resolve to “No”.
A market resolves to “Yes” if, at any point on or before its listed date, 11:59 PM ET, the Climate Clock's published 1.5°C Deadline is more than 30 days earlier or more than 30 days later than July 22, 2029. Otherwise, that market resolves to “No”.
The Climate Clock's 1.5°C Deadline is published as a machine-readable timestamp in its public data feed at https://api.climateclock.world/v2/clock.json (the “timestamp” value of the carbon-deadline module), which is the same target the on-site countdown at https://climateclock.world displays. As of this market's creation, that Deadline is July 22, 2029 (timestamp 2029-07-22T16:00:00+00:00). The ordinary second-by-second ticking of the countdown toward the Deadline does not constitute a change; only a change to the published Deadline date itself qualifies.
Because a qualifying change is permanent once published, every market with a listed date on or after the change will resolve “Yes”, and markets whose listed date has already passed without a qualifying change will have resolved “No”. If the Climate Clock and its public data feed both become permanently unavailable before a qualifying change is published, all unresolved markets will resolve to “No”.
Volume
$13,265End Date
Jan 1, 2027Market Opened
Aug 19, 2026, 6:40 PM ETResolution Source
https://climateclock.worldResolver
0x65070BE91...**Trader consensus heavily favors "No" at 90.5% because major Climate Clock deadlines—typically derived from carbon budget calculations using data from the IPCC, Global Carbon Project, and Mercator Research Institute—update infrequently and show limited movement under current emission trends.** These tools project the remaining time until cumulative CO₂ emissions exhaust the budget for a 50–67% chance of limiting long-term warming to 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels. Recent versions display deadlines in 2029–2030, reflecting ongoing annual emissions near 40 GtCO₂ and modest revisions to budgets since the Paris Agreement era. With no large-scale global emissions decline or new authoritative carbon budget reassessment expected before year-end, the displayed deadline is unlikely to shift materially by December 31, 2026. Updates occur annually or quarterly at most, driven by verified observational data rather than short-term fluctuations. A realistic scenario that could alter the clock includes a major new IPCC assessment or Global Carbon Project report substantially revising the remaining budget, or an unprecedented emissions surge/drop captured in final 2026 data. Current trajectories and the short remaining window make such shifts improbable, supporting the market-implied odds as a skin-in-the-game assessment of scientific update cycles.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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