St. Clair has served as the sole caregiver for their son Romulus since his 2024 birth in New York, with Musk confirming paternity only after court-ordered testing and documenting just a handful of brief early visits. The ongoing Manhattan Supreme Court case, where she petitioned for sole legal custody, shows no signs of shifting toward full paternal rights, reinforced by Musk’s limited hands-on role amid his public schedule and multiple other children. Traders see the high 95.7% implied probability on “No” as reflecting standard family-court emphasis on continuity for a toddler and the absence of any verified developments suggesting Musk could prevail. A realistic upset would require dramatic new evidence of unfitness or a sudden jurisdictional shift, neither of which has materialized in recent filings or statements.