El Niño conditions, expected to strengthen through fall 2026, have suppressed Atlantic tropical cyclone formation by increasing vertical wind shear and stabilizing the atmosphere, driving NOAA’s updated forecast for just 7–13 named storms, 2–6 hurricanes, and 0–2 major hurricanes (Category 3+). As of September 5, the season has produced only five tropical storms and zero hurricanes, with accumulated cyclone energy at just 4.4—91% below the 1991–2020 average. Colorado State University similarly assigns only a 24% chance of any major hurricane landfall on the U.S. coast, well below the historical 43% average. These verified conditions and model consensus underpin the market-implied 84.5% probability that no Category 4 hurricane reaches the U.S. before 2027.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedWill any Category 4 hurricane make landfall in the US in before 2027?
Will any Category 4 hurricane make landfall in the US in before 2027?
16% chance
$341,111 Vol.
$341,111 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
16% chance
$341,111 Vol.
$341,111 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
For the purposes of this market, a Category 4 hurricane is a hurricane with maximum sustained winds of 130-156 mph, as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutsshws.php, and a hurricane landfall is said to occur when the hurricane's surface center intersects with the coastline, as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml#LANDFALL.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any storm makes landfall in the conterminous United States as a Category 4 hurricane, as reported in official National Hurricane Center advisories (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2023/IDALIA.shtml?) between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may resolve based on the initial advisory released by the NHC for whether any storm has made landfall in the conterminous United States at Category 4 strength, regardless of any later retraction or analysis that may contradict the initial qualifying announcement. However, subsequent corrections or updates will be considered if they indicate a qualifying incident.El Niño conditions, expected to strengthen through fall 2026, have suppressed Atlantic tropical cyclone formation by increasing vertical wind shear and stabilizing the atmosphere, driving NOAA’s updated forecast for just 7–13 named storms, 2–6 hurricanes, and 0–2 major hurricanes (Category 3+). As of September 5, the season has produced only five tropical storms and zero hurricanes, with accumulated cyclone energy at just 4.4—91% below the 1991–2020 average. Colorado State University similarly assigns only a 24% chance of any major hurricane landfall on the U.S. coast, well below the historical 43% average. These verified conditions and model consensus underpin the market-implied 84.5% probability that no Category 4 hurricane reaches the U.S. before 2027.
For the purposes of this market, a Category 4 hurricane is a hurricane with maximum sustained winds of 130-156 mph, as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutsshws.php, and a hurricane landfall is said to occur when the hurricane's surface center intersects with the coastline, as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml#LANDFALL.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any storm makes landfall in the conterminous United States as a Category 4 hurricane, as reported in official National Hurricane Center advisories (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2023/IDALIA.shtml?) between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may resolve based on the initial advisory released by the NHC for whether any storm has made landfall in the conterminous United States at Category 4 strength, regardless of any later retraction or analysis that may contradict the initial qualifying announcement. However, subsequent corrections or updates will be considered if they indicate a qualifying incident.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any storm makes landfall in the conterminous United States as a Category 4 hurricane, as reported in official National Hurricane Center advisories (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2023/IDALIA.shtml?) between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may resolve based on the initial advisory released by the NHC for whether any storm has made landfall in the conterminous United States at Category 4 strength, regardless of any later retraction or analysis that may contradict the initial qualifying announcement. However, subsequent corrections or updates will be considered if they indicate a qualifying incident.
Market Opened: Dec 29, 2025, 6:24 PM ET
Volume
$341,111End Date
Jan 1, 2027Market Opened
Dec 29, 2025, 6:24 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...For the purposes of this market, a Category 4 hurricane is a hurricane with maximum sustained winds of 130-156 mph, as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutsshws.php, and a hurricane landfall is said to occur when the hurricane's surface center intersects with the coastline, as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml#LANDFALL.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any storm makes landfall in the conterminous United States as a Category 4 hurricane, as reported in official National Hurricane Center advisories (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2023/IDALIA.shtml?) between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may resolve based on the initial advisory released by the NHC for whether any storm has made landfall in the conterminous United States at Category 4 strength, regardless of any later retraction or analysis that may contradict the initial qualifying announcement. However, subsequent corrections or updates will be considered if they indicate a qualifying incident.El Niño conditions, expected to strengthen through fall 2026, have suppressed Atlantic tropical cyclone formation by increasing vertical wind shear and stabilizing the atmosphere, driving NOAA’s updated forecast for just 7–13 named storms, 2–6 hurricanes, and 0–2 major hurricanes (Category 3+). As of September 5, the season has produced only five tropical storms and zero hurricanes, with accumulated cyclone energy at just 4.4—91% below the 1991–2020 average. Colorado State University similarly assigns only a 24% chance of any major hurricane landfall on the U.S. coast, well below the historical 43% average. These verified conditions and model consensus underpin the market-implied 84.5% probability that no Category 4 hurricane reaches the U.S. before 2027.
For the purposes of this market, a Category 4 hurricane is a hurricane with maximum sustained winds of 130-156 mph, as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutsshws.php, and a hurricane landfall is said to occur when the hurricane's surface center intersects with the coastline, as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml#LANDFALL.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any storm makes landfall in the conterminous United States as a Category 4 hurricane, as reported in official National Hurricane Center advisories (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2023/IDALIA.shtml?) between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may resolve based on the initial advisory released by the NHC for whether any storm has made landfall in the conterminous United States at Category 4 strength, regardless of any later retraction or analysis that may contradict the initial qualifying announcement. However, subsequent corrections or updates will be considered if they indicate a qualifying incident.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any storm makes landfall in the conterminous United States as a Category 4 hurricane, as reported in official National Hurricane Center advisories (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2023/IDALIA.shtml?) between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may resolve based on the initial advisory released by the NHC for whether any storm has made landfall in the conterminous United States at Category 4 strength, regardless of any later retraction or analysis that may contradict the initial qualifying announcement. However, subsequent corrections or updates will be considered if they indicate a qualifying incident.
Volume
$341,111End Date
Jan 1, 2027Market Opened
Dec 29, 2025, 6:24 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...El Niño conditions, expected to strengthen through fall 2026, have suppressed Atlantic tropical cyclone formation by increasing vertical wind shear and stabilizing the atmosphere, driving NOAA’s updated forecast for just 7–13 named storms, 2–6 hurricanes, and 0–2 major hurricanes (Category 3+). As of September 5, the season has produced only five tropical storms and zero hurricanes, with accumulated cyclone energy at just 4.4—91% below the 1991–2020 average. Colorado State University similarly assigns only a 24% chance of any major hurricane landfall on the U.S. coast, well below the historical 43% average. These verified conditions and model consensus underpin the market-implied 84.5% probability that no Category 4 hurricane reaches the U.S. before 2027.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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