Anthropic's recent Claude Fable 5.1 release on September 1, 2026, drives the 77% market-implied probability for the company holding the best AI model by end of October, as it leads independent benchmarks like BenchAlign v5 at 82.95 and strong results on SWE-bench Verified and Terminal-Bench. The model's 1M context window, agentic coding capabilities, and performance edge over prior Opus variants reinforce trader consensus on Anthropic's frontier positioning relative to OpenAI's newly launched GPT-6 Astra and Google's Gemini updates. Lower implied odds for OpenAI at 12.3% and Google at 8.8% reflect current gaps on coding and reasoning evaluations, though rapid iteration in the sector leaves room for shifts before resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedAnthropic 77%
OpenAI 12.4%
Google 8.6%
Meta 1.3%
$187,183 Vol.
$187,183 Vol.
Oct 31, 2026
Anthropic
77%
OpenAI
12%
9%
Meta
1%
SpaceXAI
1%
Z.ai
1%
Alibaba
1%
Moonshot
<1%
DeepSeek
<1%
Baidu
<1%
ByteDance
<1%
Xiaomi
<1%
Amazon
<1%
Nvidia
<1%
Thinky
<1%
MiniMax
<1%
Mistral
<1%
Meituan
<1%
Tencent
<1%
StepFun
<1%
Microsoft
<1%
Anthropic 77%
OpenAI 12.4%
Google 8.6%
Meta 1.3%
$187,183 Vol.
$187,183 Vol.
Oct 31, 2026
Anthropic
$33,111 Vol.
77%
OpenAI
$16,806 Vol.
12%
$16,229 Vol.
9%
Meta
$15,418 Vol.
1%
SpaceXAI
$12,311 Vol.
1%
Z.ai
$14,767 Vol.
1%
Alibaba
$10,962 Vol.
1%
Moonshot
$12,228 Vol.
<1%
DeepSeek
$14,452 Vol.
<1%
Baidu
$9,437 Vol.
<1%
ByteDance
$8,886 Vol.
<1%
Xiaomi
$1,471 Vol.
<1%
Amazon
$2,066 Vol.
<1%
Nvidia
$7,360 Vol.
<1%
Thinky
$925 Vol.
<1%
MiniMax
$1,262 Vol.
<1%
Mistral
$1,800 Vol.
<1%
Meituan
$4,875 Vol.
<1%
Tencent
$949 Vol.
<1%
StepFun
$540 Vol.
<1%
Microsoft
$1,327 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve according to the company which owns the model which has the highest arena rank based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on October 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market.
Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".Anthropic's recent Claude Fable 5.1 release on September 1, 2026, drives the 77% market-implied probability for the company holding the best AI model by end of October, as it leads independent benchmarks like BenchAlign v5 at 82.95 and strong results on SWE-bench Verified and Terminal-Bench. The model's 1M context window, agentic coding capabilities, and performance edge over prior Opus variants reinforce trader consensus on Anthropic's frontier positioning relative to OpenAI's newly launched GPT-6 Astra and Google's Gemini updates. Lower implied odds for OpenAI at 12.3% and Google at 8.8% reflect current gaps on coding and reasoning evaluations, though rapid iteration in the sector leaves room for shifts before resolution.
This market will resolve according to the company which owns the model which has the highest arena rank based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on October 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market.
Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market.
Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Market Opened: Aug 12, 2026, 8:01 PM ET
Volume
$187,183End Date
Nov 1, 2026Market Opened
Aug 12, 2026, 8:01 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the company which owns the model which has the highest arena rank based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on October 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market.
Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".Anthropic's recent Claude Fable 5.1 release on September 1, 2026, drives the 77% market-implied probability for the company holding the best AI model by end of October, as it leads independent benchmarks like BenchAlign v5 at 82.95 and strong results on SWE-bench Verified and Terminal-Bench. The model's 1M context window, agentic coding capabilities, and performance edge over prior Opus variants reinforce trader consensus on Anthropic's frontier positioning relative to OpenAI's newly launched GPT-6 Astra and Google's Gemini updates. Lower implied odds for OpenAI at 12.3% and Google at 8.8% reflect current gaps on coding and reasoning evaluations, though rapid iteration in the sector leaves room for shifts before resolution.
This market will resolve according to the company which owns the model which has the highest arena rank based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on October 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market.
Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market.
Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Volume
$187,183End Date
Nov 1, 2026Market Opened
Aug 12, 2026, 8:01 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Anthropic's recent Claude Fable 5.1 release on September 1, 2026, drives the 77% market-implied probability for the company holding the best AI model by end of October, as it leads independent benchmarks like BenchAlign v5 at 82.95 and strong results on SWE-bench Verified and Terminal-Bench. The model's 1M context window, agentic coding capabilities, and performance edge over prior Opus variants reinforce trader consensus on Anthropic's frontier positioning relative to OpenAI's newly launched GPT-6 Astra and Google's Gemini updates. Lower implied odds for OpenAI at 12.3% and Google at 8.8% reflect current gaps on coding and reasoning evaluations, though rapid iteration in the sector leaves room for shifts before resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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