Anthropic's Claude Fable 5.1 and related Opus 5 models lead independent benchmarks in coding, agentic reasoning, and long-context tasks as of early September 2026, underpinning the 62.5% market-implied odds for the company to hold the top AI model by year-end. Recent releases, including Fable 5.1 on September 1 with 1M-token context and strong Frontier-Bench results, have reinforced trader consensus on Anthropic's edge over competitors. OpenAI's GPT-6 Astra and Google's Gemini updates keep the race competitive at 21.5% and 8.5% implied probabilities, respectively, while xAI, Meta, and others trail amid rapid iteration cycles. Key catalysts ahead include further model drops and benchmark shifts before December 31, though product timelines remain subject to change.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedAnthropic 63%
OpenAI 22%
Google 9%
xAI 3.1%
$1,121,101 Vol.
$1,121,101 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
Anthropic
63%
OpenAI
22%
9%
xAI
3%
Meta
2%
Alibaba
1%
Z.ai
1%
DeepSeek
1%
Moonshot
<1%
ByteDance
<1%
Baidu
<1%
Mistral
<1%
Microsoft
<1%
Amazon
<1%
Meituan
<1%
Anthropic 63%
OpenAI 22%
Google 9%
xAI 3.1%
$1,121,101 Vol.
$1,121,101 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
Anthropic
$128,774 Vol.
63%
OpenAI
$105,779 Vol.
22%
$68,547 Vol.
9%
xAI
$89,261 Vol.
3%
Meta
$72,148 Vol.
2%
Alibaba
$65,839 Vol.
1%
Z.ai
$69,062 Vol.
1%
DeepSeek
$78,917 Vol.
1%
Moonshot
$80,665 Vol.
<1%
ByteDance
$74,075 Vol.
<1%
Baidu
$52,418 Vol.
<1%
Mistral
$63,273 Vol.
<1%
Microsoft
$59,867 Vol.
<1%
Amazon
$57,590 Vol.
<1%
Meituan
$54,885 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve according to the company which owns the model which has the highest arena rank based off the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on December 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" section on the Leaderboard tab of https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with the style control off will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “xAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking system.
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.Anthropic's Claude Fable 5.1 and related Opus 5 models lead independent benchmarks in coding, agentic reasoning, and long-context tasks as of early September 2026, underpinning the 62.5% market-implied odds for the company to hold the top AI model by year-end. Recent releases, including Fable 5.1 on September 1 with 1M-token context and strong Frontier-Bench results, have reinforced trader consensus on Anthropic's edge over competitors. OpenAI's GPT-6 Astra and Google's Gemini updates keep the race competitive at 21.5% and 8.5% implied probabilities, respectively, while xAI, Meta, and others trail amid rapid iteration cycles. Key catalysts ahead include further model drops and benchmark shifts before December 31, though product timelines remain subject to change.
This market will resolve according to the company which owns the model which has the highest arena rank based off the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on December 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" section on the Leaderboard tab of https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with the style control off will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “xAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking system.
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
Results from the "Rank" section on the Leaderboard tab of https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with the style control off will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “xAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking system.
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
Market Opened: Jun 4, 2026, 1:39 PM ET
Volume
$1,121,101End Date
Jan 1, 2027Market Opened
Jun 4, 2026, 1:39 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the company which owns the model which has the highest arena rank based off the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on December 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" section on the Leaderboard tab of https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with the style control off will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “xAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking system.
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.Anthropic's Claude Fable 5.1 and related Opus 5 models lead independent benchmarks in coding, agentic reasoning, and long-context tasks as of early September 2026, underpinning the 62.5% market-implied odds for the company to hold the top AI model by year-end. Recent releases, including Fable 5.1 on September 1 with 1M-token context and strong Frontier-Bench results, have reinforced trader consensus on Anthropic's edge over competitors. OpenAI's GPT-6 Astra and Google's Gemini updates keep the race competitive at 21.5% and 8.5% implied probabilities, respectively, while xAI, Meta, and others trail amid rapid iteration cycles. Key catalysts ahead include further model drops and benchmark shifts before December 31, though product timelines remain subject to change.
This market will resolve according to the company which owns the model which has the highest arena rank based off the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on December 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" section on the Leaderboard tab of https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with the style control off will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “xAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking system.
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
Results from the "Rank" section on the Leaderboard tab of https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with the style control off will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “xAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking system.
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
Volume
$1,121,101End Date
Jan 1, 2027Market Opened
Jun 4, 2026, 1:39 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Anthropic's Claude Fable 5.1 and related Opus 5 models lead independent benchmarks in coding, agentic reasoning, and long-context tasks as of early September 2026, underpinning the 62.5% market-implied odds for the company to hold the top AI model by year-end. Recent releases, including Fable 5.1 on September 1 with 1M-token context and strong Frontier-Bench results, have reinforced trader consensus on Anthropic's edge over competitors. OpenAI's GPT-6 Astra and Google's Gemini updates keep the race competitive at 21.5% and 8.5% implied probabilities, respectively, while xAI, Meta, and others trail amid rapid iteration cycles. Key catalysts ahead include further model drops and benchmark shifts before December 31, though product timelines remain subject to change.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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