Moonshot and Alibaba lead trader sentiment for third place on the Code Arena WebDev leaderboard by end of October, each near 32 percent implied probability amid tight competition. OpenAI’s GPT-6 Astra surged to the top score of 1,797 shortly after its September 3 launch, while Anthropic’s Claude models hold strong second-tier positions; this leaves the Chinese labs—Alibaba’s recently upgraded Qwen3.8-Max-0902 and Moonshot’s Kimi K3 series—as the clearest contenders for third. Their models deliver competitive agentic frontend coding performance at far lower cost, with Alibaba briefly claiming the overall lead in early September and Moonshot benefiting from open-weight releases that close the gap on proprietary systems. Upcoming model updates or sustained voting shifts on the crowdsourced Elo leaderboard could still reorder the middle ranks before resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedMoonshot 33%
Alibaba 32%
SpaceXAI 6.2%
OpenAI 6.0%
$35,548 Vol.
$35,548 Vol.
Oct 31, 2026
Moonshot
33%
Alibaba
32%
SpaceXAI
6%
OpenAI
6%
Anthropic
5%
3%
Meta
3%
Mistral
2%
Z.ai
2%
Thinky
1%
DeepSeek
1%
ByteDance
1%
Tencent
1%
MiniMax
<1%
Xiaomi
<1%
Poolside
<1%
Moonshot 33%
Alibaba 32%
SpaceXAI 6.2%
OpenAI 6.0%
$35,548 Vol.
$35,548 Vol.
Oct 31, 2026
Moonshot
$10,474 Vol.
33%
Alibaba
$17,210 Vol.
32%
SpaceXAI
$519 Vol.
6%
OpenAI
$884 Vol.
6%
Anthropic
$604 Vol.
5%
$482 Vol.
3%
Meta
$496 Vol.
3%
Mistral
$581 Vol.
2%
Z.ai
$656 Vol.
2%
Thinky
$586 Vol.
1%
DeepSeek
$580 Vol.
1%
ByteDance
$613 Vol.
1%
Tencent
$539 Vol.
1%
MiniMax
$540 Vol.
<1%
Xiaomi
$302 Vol.
<1%
Poolside
$482 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve according to the third-highest ranked Company based on the arena.ai Code Arena | WebDev Leaderboard when the table under "Code Arena | WebDev" filtered for "Labs" is checked on October 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Lab Rank" column under the "Code Arena | WebDev" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/code/webdev?rankBy=labs (Overall) filtered for "Labs" will be used to resolve this market.
Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
AI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by which model is listed higher on the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI lab/company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies third place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Code Arena | WebDev Leaderboard. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".Moonshot and Alibaba lead trader sentiment for third place on the Code Arena WebDev leaderboard by end of October, each near 32 percent implied probability amid tight competition. OpenAI’s GPT-6 Astra surged to the top score of 1,797 shortly after its September 3 launch, while Anthropic’s Claude models hold strong second-tier positions; this leaves the Chinese labs—Alibaba’s recently upgraded Qwen3.8-Max-0902 and Moonshot’s Kimi K3 series—as the clearest contenders for third. Their models deliver competitive agentic frontend coding performance at far lower cost, with Alibaba briefly claiming the overall lead in early September and Moonshot benefiting from open-weight releases that close the gap on proprietary systems. Upcoming model updates or sustained voting shifts on the crowdsourced Elo leaderboard could still reorder the middle ranks before resolution.
This market will resolve according to the third-highest ranked Company based on the arena.ai Code Arena | WebDev Leaderboard when the table under "Code Arena | WebDev" filtered for "Labs" is checked on October 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Lab Rank" column under the "Code Arena | WebDev" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/code/webdev?rankBy=labs (Overall) filtered for "Labs" will be used to resolve this market.
Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
AI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by which model is listed higher on the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI lab/company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies third place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Code Arena | WebDev Leaderboard. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Results from the "Lab Rank" column under the "Code Arena | WebDev" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/code/webdev?rankBy=labs (Overall) filtered for "Labs" will be used to resolve this market.
Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
AI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by which model is listed higher on the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI lab/company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies third place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Code Arena | WebDev Leaderboard. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Market Opened: Aug 12, 2026, 8:01 PM ET
Volume
$35,548End Date
Nov 1, 2026Market Opened
Aug 12, 2026, 8:01 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the third-highest ranked Company based on the arena.ai Code Arena | WebDev Leaderboard when the table under "Code Arena | WebDev" filtered for "Labs" is checked on October 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Lab Rank" column under the "Code Arena | WebDev" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/code/webdev?rankBy=labs (Overall) filtered for "Labs" will be used to resolve this market.
Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
AI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by which model is listed higher on the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI lab/company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies third place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Code Arena | WebDev Leaderboard. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".Moonshot and Alibaba lead trader sentiment for third place on the Code Arena WebDev leaderboard by end of October, each near 32 percent implied probability amid tight competition. OpenAI’s GPT-6 Astra surged to the top score of 1,797 shortly after its September 3 launch, while Anthropic’s Claude models hold strong second-tier positions; this leaves the Chinese labs—Alibaba’s recently upgraded Qwen3.8-Max-0902 and Moonshot’s Kimi K3 series—as the clearest contenders for third. Their models deliver competitive agentic frontend coding performance at far lower cost, with Alibaba briefly claiming the overall lead in early September and Moonshot benefiting from open-weight releases that close the gap on proprietary systems. Upcoming model updates or sustained voting shifts on the crowdsourced Elo leaderboard could still reorder the middle ranks before resolution.
This market will resolve according to the third-highest ranked Company based on the arena.ai Code Arena | WebDev Leaderboard when the table under "Code Arena | WebDev" filtered for "Labs" is checked on October 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Lab Rank" column under the "Code Arena | WebDev" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/code/webdev?rankBy=labs (Overall) filtered for "Labs" will be used to resolve this market.
Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
AI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by which model is listed higher on the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI lab/company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies third place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Code Arena | WebDev Leaderboard. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Results from the "Lab Rank" column under the "Code Arena | WebDev" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/code/webdev?rankBy=labs (Overall) filtered for "Labs" will be used to resolve this market.
Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
AI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by which model is listed higher on the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI lab/company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies third place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Code Arena | WebDev Leaderboard. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Volume
$35,548End Date
Nov 1, 2026Market Opened
Aug 12, 2026, 8:01 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Moonshot and Alibaba lead trader sentiment for third place on the Code Arena WebDev leaderboard by end of October, each near 32 percent implied probability amid tight competition. OpenAI’s GPT-6 Astra surged to the top score of 1,797 shortly after its September 3 launch, while Anthropic’s Claude models hold strong second-tier positions; this leaves the Chinese labs—Alibaba’s recently upgraded Qwen3.8-Max-0902 and Moonshot’s Kimi K3 series—as the clearest contenders for third. Their models deliver competitive agentic frontend coding performance at far lower cost, with Alibaba briefly claiming the overall lead in early September and Moonshot benefiting from open-weight releases that close the gap on proprietary systems. Upcoming model updates or sustained voting shifts on the crowdsourced Elo leaderboard could still reorder the middle ranks before resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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