A strong, rapidly intensifying El Niño—already pushing Niño 3.4 anomalies above +2°C and forecast by models to peak near or above +3.5–4°C later in 2026—provides the main upward pressure on September global mean temperatures, layered atop record-high ocean heat content and long-term anthropogenic warming. This event’s influence on the global average lags Pacific SSTs by several months, so September outcomes depend heavily on conditions already locked in through July–August plus shorter-term variability in atmospheric circulation and polar amplification. Early September observations and ECMWF ensembles place the month on track for a high anomaly relative to the 1991–2020 baseline, yet the exact pre-industrial value remains sensitive to final daily data, dataset differences (e.g., NASA GISS vs. ERA5), and any late-month cooling. Traders’ near-even odds across the 1.30–1.49°C bins reflect this narrow range of plausible outcomes and the limited window left for new observational updates before month-end resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedSeptember 2026 Temperature Increase (ºC)
September 2026 Temperature Increase (ºC)
>1.49ºC 50%
1.35–1.39ºC 50%
1.40–1.44ºC 50%
1.45–1.49ºC 50%
NEW
NEW
Oct 9, 2026
<1.30ºC
49%
1.30–1.34ºC
49%
1.35–1.39ºC
50%
1.40–1.44ºC
50%
1.45–1.49ºC
50%
>1.49ºC
50%
>1.49ºC 50%
1.35–1.39ºC 50%
1.40–1.44ºC 50%
1.45–1.49ºC 50%
NEW
NEW
Oct 9, 2026
<1.30ºC
$0 Vol.
49%
1.30–1.34ºC
$0 Vol.
49%
1.35–1.39ºC
$0 Vol.
50%
1.40–1.44ºC
$0 Vol.
50%
1.45–1.49ºC
$0 Vol.
50%
>1.49ºC
$0 Vol.
50%
This market will resolve according to the value reported by the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for September 2026 when it is released.
An anomaly within a named bracket for September 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for September 2026 is later revised.
The brackets are mutually exclusive and collectively exhaustive: each range is inclusive of both of its stated endpoints, and the reported anomaly (to the nearest 0.01ºC) falls within exactly one bracket.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Sep" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt).
If NASA's "Global Temperature Index" is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for September 2026 is provided by NASA by November 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.A strong, rapidly intensifying El Niño—already pushing Niño 3.4 anomalies above +2°C and forecast by models to peak near or above +3.5–4°C later in 2026—provides the main upward pressure on September global mean temperatures, layered atop record-high ocean heat content and long-term anthropogenic warming. This event’s influence on the global average lags Pacific SSTs by several months, so September outcomes depend heavily on conditions already locked in through July–August plus shorter-term variability in atmospheric circulation and polar amplification. Early September observations and ECMWF ensembles place the month on track for a high anomaly relative to the 1991–2020 baseline, yet the exact pre-industrial value remains sensitive to final daily data, dataset differences (e.g., NASA GISS vs. ERA5), and any late-month cooling. Traders’ near-even odds across the 1.30–1.49°C bins reflect this narrow range of plausible outcomes and the limited window left for new observational updates before month-end resolution.
This market will resolve according to the value reported by the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for September 2026 when it is released.
An anomaly within a named bracket for September 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for September 2026 is later revised.
The brackets are mutually exclusive and collectively exhaustive: each range is inclusive of both of its stated endpoints, and the reported anomaly (to the nearest 0.01ºC) falls within exactly one bracket.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Sep" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt).
If NASA's "Global Temperature Index" is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for September 2026 is provided by NASA by November 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
An anomaly within a named bracket for September 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for September 2026 is later revised.
The brackets are mutually exclusive and collectively exhaustive: each range is inclusive of both of its stated endpoints, and the reported anomaly (to the nearest 0.01ºC) falls within exactly one bracket.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Sep" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt).
If NASA's "Global Temperature Index" is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for September 2026 is provided by NASA by November 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
Market Opened: Aug 31, 2026, 9:36 AM ET
Volume
$0End Date
Oct 10, 2026Market Opened
Aug 31, 2026, 9:36 AM ETResolution Source
https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txtResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the value reported by the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for September 2026 when it is released.
An anomaly within a named bracket for September 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for September 2026 is later revised.
The brackets are mutually exclusive and collectively exhaustive: each range is inclusive of both of its stated endpoints, and the reported anomaly (to the nearest 0.01ºC) falls within exactly one bracket.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Sep" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt).
If NASA's "Global Temperature Index" is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for September 2026 is provided by NASA by November 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.A strong, rapidly intensifying El Niño—already pushing Niño 3.4 anomalies above +2°C and forecast by models to peak near or above +3.5–4°C later in 2026—provides the main upward pressure on September global mean temperatures, layered atop record-high ocean heat content and long-term anthropogenic warming. This event’s influence on the global average lags Pacific SSTs by several months, so September outcomes depend heavily on conditions already locked in through July–August plus shorter-term variability in atmospheric circulation and polar amplification. Early September observations and ECMWF ensembles place the month on track for a high anomaly relative to the 1991–2020 baseline, yet the exact pre-industrial value remains sensitive to final daily data, dataset differences (e.g., NASA GISS vs. ERA5), and any late-month cooling. Traders’ near-even odds across the 1.30–1.49°C bins reflect this narrow range of plausible outcomes and the limited window left for new observational updates before month-end resolution.
This market will resolve according to the value reported by the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for September 2026 when it is released.
An anomaly within a named bracket for September 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for September 2026 is later revised.
The brackets are mutually exclusive and collectively exhaustive: each range is inclusive of both of its stated endpoints, and the reported anomaly (to the nearest 0.01ºC) falls within exactly one bracket.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Sep" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt).
If NASA's "Global Temperature Index" is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for September 2026 is provided by NASA by November 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
An anomaly within a named bracket for September 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for September 2026 is later revised.
The brackets are mutually exclusive and collectively exhaustive: each range is inclusive of both of its stated endpoints, and the reported anomaly (to the nearest 0.01ºC) falls within exactly one bracket.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Sep" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt).
If NASA's "Global Temperature Index" is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for September 2026 is provided by NASA by November 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
Volume
$0End Date
Oct 10, 2026Market Opened
Aug 31, 2026, 9:36 AM ETResolution Source
https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txtResolver
0x69c47De9D...A strong, rapidly intensifying El Niño—already pushing Niño 3.4 anomalies above +2°C and forecast by models to peak near or above +3.5–4°C later in 2026—provides the main upward pressure on September global mean temperatures, layered atop record-high ocean heat content and long-term anthropogenic warming. This event’s influence on the global average lags Pacific SSTs by several months, so September outcomes depend heavily on conditions already locked in through July–August plus shorter-term variability in atmospheric circulation and polar amplification. Early September observations and ECMWF ensembles place the month on track for a high anomaly relative to the 1991–2020 baseline, yet the exact pre-industrial value remains sensitive to final daily data, dataset differences (e.g., NASA GISS vs. ERA5), and any late-month cooling. Traders’ near-even odds across the 1.30–1.49°C bins reflect this narrow range of plausible outcomes and the limited window left for new observational updates before month-end resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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