**RFK Jr. remains firmly in place as HHS Secretary heading into the fall of 2026, with trader consensus reflecting the absence of any credible signals he will depart before October 31.** Confirmed by the Senate in February 2025, he continues to lead the department’s “Make America Healthy Again” agenda, including recent leadership reorganizations, workforce reductions, contract savings initiatives, and FY 2026 budget presentations to Congress as late as early September. He has testified on health policy priorities, restructured senior roles to advance administration goals such as drug pricing and nutrition reforms, and maintained White House backing despite external criticism over vaccine guidance and agency changes. No public statements, leaks, or procedural moves indicate an impending exit, and his May 2026 confirmation that he will not seek the presidency in 2028 further reduces any near-term political off-ramps. With midterms approaching and his voter base viewed as useful for Republican turnout, the current 93.5% implied probability on “No” aligns with the lack of catalysts that would typically precede a cabinet departure.