OpenAI’s decision not to issue a formal AGI declaration despite the September 2026 launch of GPT-6 Astra underpins the 75% market-implied odds against an announcement before 2027. Executives including Greg Brockman described the model as potentially marking the “AGI era” and solving novel problems, yet framed progress as incremental rather than meeting the company’s charter definition of systems outperforming humans at most economically valuable work. Sam Altman has repeatedly called the term poorly defined or a “marketing” label while projecting only an internal system by year-end, and recent safety pauses plus shifting internal researcher timelines have reinforced trader caution. Key near-term catalysts include any official statements tied to Astra’s full rollout or year-end updates that could shift consensus on whether OpenAI will claim the milestone.