Anthropic’s accelerated 2026 release cadence for Claude Opus models—Opus 4.7 in April, 4.8 in late May, and Opus 5 on July 24—has shaped trader views on the next flagship Opus iteration. Opus 5 delivers state-of-the-art results on coding benchmarks like Frontier-Bench and CursorBench at half the cost of Fable 5 while remaining behind Mythos-class models on cybersecurity tasks, reflecting Anthropic’s emphasis on efficient, daily-use agents over raw frontier capability. The July launch followed closely after Fable 5 and Mythos 5 in June, with Fable 5.1 and Mythos 5.1 updates arriving September 1, underscoring competitive pressure from OpenAI and Google on agentic coding and knowledge work. Key swing factors include Anthropic’s safety-driven delays for higher-tier models, ongoing effort-control features, and any developer conference or earnings signals that could preview Opus 6 timing or new hardware standards.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated$87,976 Vol.
Sep 30, 2026
September 30
81%
October 31
95%
December 31
99%
$87,976 Vol.
September 30
$30,107 Vol.
81%
October 31
$11,793 Vol.
95%
December 31
$4,802 Vol.
99%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Anthropic's next Claude Opus model is made available to the general public by the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
Claude Opus refers to a model by Anthropic explicitly named Opus. Qualifying models include Claude Opus 5.1, Claude Opus 5.5, Opus 6, or any other Opus variants. Models under any other name, such as Sonnet, Haiku, Fable, or Mythos, will not qualify, unless the model is explicitly and officially named Opus by Anthropic.
A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice.
The release must be either clearly defined and publicly announced by Anthropic as being accessible to the general public or otherwise made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled within the company’s official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Anthropic, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.Anthropic’s accelerated 2026 release cadence for Claude Opus models—Opus 4.7 in April, 4.8 in late May, and Opus 5 on July 24—has shaped trader views on the next flagship Opus iteration. Opus 5 delivers state-of-the-art results on coding benchmarks like Frontier-Bench and CursorBench at half the cost of Fable 5 while remaining behind Mythos-class models on cybersecurity tasks, reflecting Anthropic’s emphasis on efficient, daily-use agents over raw frontier capability. The July launch followed closely after Fable 5 and Mythos 5 in June, with Fable 5.1 and Mythos 5.1 updates arriving September 1, underscoring competitive pressure from OpenAI and Google on agentic coding and knowledge work. Key swing factors include Anthropic’s safety-driven delays for higher-tier models, ongoing effort-control features, and any developer conference or earnings signals that could preview Opus 6 timing or new hardware standards.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Anthropic's next Claude Opus model is made available to the general public by the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
Claude Opus refers to a model by Anthropic explicitly named Opus. Qualifying models include Claude Opus 5.1, Claude Opus 5.5, Opus 6, or any other Opus variants. Models under any other name, such as Sonnet, Haiku, Fable, or Mythos, will not qualify, unless the model is explicitly and officially named Opus by Anthropic.
A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice.
The release must be either clearly defined and publicly announced by Anthropic as being accessible to the general public or otherwise made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled within the company’s official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Anthropic, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.
Claude Opus refers to a model by Anthropic explicitly named Opus. Qualifying models include Claude Opus 5.1, Claude Opus 5.5, Opus 6, or any other Opus variants. Models under any other name, such as Sonnet, Haiku, Fable, or Mythos, will not qualify, unless the model is explicitly and officially named Opus by Anthropic.
A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice.
The release must be either clearly defined and publicly announced by Anthropic as being accessible to the general public or otherwise made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled within the company’s official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Anthropic, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.
Market Opened: Aug 17, 2026, 11:04 AM ET
Volume
$87,976End Date
Jan 1, 2027Market Opened
Aug 17, 2026, 11:04 AM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if Anthropic's next Claude Opus model is made available to the general public by the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
Claude Opus refers to a model by Anthropic explicitly named Opus. Qualifying models include Claude Opus 5.1, Claude Opus 5.5, Opus 6, or any other Opus variants. Models under any other name, such as Sonnet, Haiku, Fable, or Mythos, will not qualify, unless the model is explicitly and officially named Opus by Anthropic.
A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice.
The release must be either clearly defined and publicly announced by Anthropic as being accessible to the general public or otherwise made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled within the company’s official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Anthropic, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.Anthropic’s accelerated 2026 release cadence for Claude Opus models—Opus 4.7 in April, 4.8 in late May, and Opus 5 on July 24—has shaped trader views on the next flagship Opus iteration. Opus 5 delivers state-of-the-art results on coding benchmarks like Frontier-Bench and CursorBench at half the cost of Fable 5 while remaining behind Mythos-class models on cybersecurity tasks, reflecting Anthropic’s emphasis on efficient, daily-use agents over raw frontier capability. The July launch followed closely after Fable 5 and Mythos 5 in June, with Fable 5.1 and Mythos 5.1 updates arriving September 1, underscoring competitive pressure from OpenAI and Google on agentic coding and knowledge work. Key swing factors include Anthropic’s safety-driven delays for higher-tier models, ongoing effort-control features, and any developer conference or earnings signals that could preview Opus 6 timing or new hardware standards.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Anthropic's next Claude Opus model is made available to the general public by the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
Claude Opus refers to a model by Anthropic explicitly named Opus. Qualifying models include Claude Opus 5.1, Claude Opus 5.5, Opus 6, or any other Opus variants. Models under any other name, such as Sonnet, Haiku, Fable, or Mythos, will not qualify, unless the model is explicitly and officially named Opus by Anthropic.
A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice.
The release must be either clearly defined and publicly announced by Anthropic as being accessible to the general public or otherwise made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled within the company’s official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Anthropic, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.
Claude Opus refers to a model by Anthropic explicitly named Opus. Qualifying models include Claude Opus 5.1, Claude Opus 5.5, Opus 6, or any other Opus variants. Models under any other name, such as Sonnet, Haiku, Fable, or Mythos, will not qualify, unless the model is explicitly and officially named Opus by Anthropic.
A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice.
The release must be either clearly defined and publicly announced by Anthropic as being accessible to the general public or otherwise made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled within the company’s official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Anthropic, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.
Volume
$87,976End Date
Jan 1, 2027Market Opened
Aug 17, 2026, 11:04 AM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Anthropic’s accelerated 2026 release cadence for Claude Opus models—Opus 4.7 in April, 4.8 in late May, and Opus 5 on July 24—has shaped trader views on the next flagship Opus iteration. Opus 5 delivers state-of-the-art results on coding benchmarks like Frontier-Bench and CursorBench at half the cost of Fable 5 while remaining behind Mythos-class models on cybersecurity tasks, reflecting Anthropic’s emphasis on efficient, daily-use agents over raw frontier capability. The July launch followed closely after Fable 5 and Mythos 5 in June, with Fable 5.1 and Mythos 5.1 updates arriving September 1, underscoring competitive pressure from OpenAI and Google on agentic coding and knowledge work. Key swing factors include Anthropic’s safety-driven delays for higher-tier models, ongoing effort-control features, and any developer conference or earnings signals that could preview Opus 6 timing or new hardware standards.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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