Maryland's 2nd congressional district carries a D+10 partisan voter index and has delivered consistent Democratic margins in recent cycles, supporting trader consensus around a 94.5% probability for the Democratic nominee. Incumbent Johnny Olszewski secured the Democratic primary with over 84% of the vote in June 2026, while Republican nominee Dave Wallace advanced with nearly 89% in his primary. Nonpartisan forecasters including the Cook Political Report, Sabato's Crystal Ball, and Decision Desk HQ rate the seat as solid or safe Democratic ahead of the November 3 general election. Low Republican fundraising and the absence of competitive polling reflect limited pathways for an upset. Late developments such as a major candidate scandal, health event, or an unusually strong national Republican performance could narrow the gap, though historical patterns in the district suggest such shifts remain unlikely.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedMD-02 House Election Winner
MD-02 House Election Winner
$24,179 Vol.
$24,179 Vol.
Nov 2, 2026
Democratic Party
95%
Republican Party
5%
$24,179 Vol.
$24,179 Vol.
Nov 2, 2026
Democratic Party
$12,396 Vol.
95%
Republican Party
$11,784 Vol.
5%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the MD-02 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Maryland's 2nd congressional district carries a D+10 partisan voter index and has delivered consistent Democratic margins in recent cycles, supporting trader consensus around a 94.5% probability for the Democratic nominee. Incumbent Johnny Olszewski secured the Democratic primary with over 84% of the vote in June 2026, while Republican nominee Dave Wallace advanced with nearly 89% in his primary. Nonpartisan forecasters including the Cook Political Report, Sabato's Crystal Ball, and Decision Desk HQ rate the seat as solid or safe Democratic ahead of the November 3 general election. Low Republican fundraising and the absence of competitive polling reflect limited pathways for an upset. Late developments such as a major candidate scandal, health event, or an unusually strong national Republican performance could narrow the gap, though historical patterns in the district suggest such shifts remain unlikely.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the MD-02 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Market Opened: Jan 28, 2026, 11:09 AM ET
Volume
$24,179End Date
Nov 3, 2026Market Opened
Jan 28, 2026, 11:09 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the MD-02 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Maryland's 2nd congressional district carries a D+10 partisan voter index and has delivered consistent Democratic margins in recent cycles, supporting trader consensus around a 94.5% probability for the Democratic nominee. Incumbent Johnny Olszewski secured the Democratic primary with over 84% of the vote in June 2026, while Republican nominee Dave Wallace advanced with nearly 89% in his primary. Nonpartisan forecasters including the Cook Political Report, Sabato's Crystal Ball, and Decision Desk HQ rate the seat as solid or safe Democratic ahead of the November 3 general election. Low Republican fundraising and the absence of competitive polling reflect limited pathways for an upset. Late developments such as a major candidate scandal, health event, or an unusually strong national Republican performance could narrow the gap, though historical patterns in the district suggest such shifts remain unlikely.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the MD-02 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Volume
$24,179End Date
Nov 3, 2026Market Opened
Jan 28, 2026, 11:09 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Maryland's 2nd congressional district carries a D+10 partisan voter index and has delivered consistent Democratic margins in recent cycles, supporting trader consensus around a 94.5% probability for the Democratic nominee. Incumbent Johnny Olszewski secured the Democratic primary with over 84% of the vote in June 2026, while Republican nominee Dave Wallace advanced with nearly 89% in his primary. Nonpartisan forecasters including the Cook Political Report, Sabato's Crystal Ball, and Decision Desk HQ rate the seat as solid or safe Democratic ahead of the November 3 general election. Low Republican fundraising and the absence of competitive polling reflect limited pathways for an upset. Late developments such as a major candidate scandal, health event, or an unusually strong national Republican performance could narrow the gap, though historical patterns in the district suggest such shifts remain unlikely.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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