Massachusetts Democratic primary voters delivered Sen. Ed Markey a decisive victory over Rep. Seth Moulton on September 1, with certified results showing Markey at roughly 65% and Moulton near 35% for a margin in the 25–30 point range. Markey’s campaign emphasized his progressive record on the Green New Deal and Medicare for All, bolstered by high-profile endorsements from Sens. Elizabeth Warren and Bernie Sanders plus Reps. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez and Ayanna Pressley. Moulton’s focus on generational change and age concerns failed to gain traction despite a spending edge and moderate support. Late-summer polling trends confirmed Markey’s expanding lead, aligning trader consensus with the observed outcome and leaving limited room for shifts absent final vote certification adjustments.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedMassachusetts Democratic Senate Primary Margin of Victory
Massachusetts Democratic Senate Primary Margin of Victory
Markey 25–30% 88.0%
Markey 30–35% 7%
Markey 15–20% 4.5%
Markey 10–15% 4.0%
$12,730 Vol.
$12,730 Vol.
Sep 1, 2026
Markey 40%+
24%
Markey 35–40%
7%
Markey 30–35%
7%
Markey 25–30%
74%
Markey 20–25%
1%
Markey 15–20%
5%
Markey 10–15%
4%
Markey 5–10%
<1%
Markey <5%
<1%
Moulton <5%
<1%
Moulton 5%+
<1%
Markey 25–30% 88.0%
Markey 30–35% 7%
Markey 15–20% 4.5%
Markey 10–15% 4.0%
$12,730 Vol.
$12,730 Vol.
Sep 1, 2026
Markey 40%+
$1,353 Vol.
24%
Markey 35–40%
$2,338 Vol.
7%
Markey 30–35%
$2,442 Vol.
7%
Markey 25–30%
$1,290 Vol.
74%
Markey 20–25%
$598 Vol.
1%
Markey 15–20%
$1,717 Vol.
5%
Markey 10–15%
$1,223 Vol.
4%
Markey 5–10%
$428 Vol.
<1%
Markey <5%
$405 Vol.
<1%
Moulton <5%
$428 Vol.
<1%
Moulton 5%+
$508 Vol.
<1%
The Massachusetts state primary is scheduled to be held on September 1, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the Massachusetts Democratic Primary for U.S. Senator.
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket.
If two candidates receive the exact same highest number of valid votes and both are listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for the tied candidate whose last name comes first alphabetically. If only one of the tied candidates is listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for that listed candidate. If neither tied candidate is listed, this market will resolve to “Other.”
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the results of the specified election are not known definitively by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.
The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the Commonwealth of Massachusetts, such as official statewide results published by the Massachusetts Secretary of the Commonwealth (https://www.sec.state.ma.us/); however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.Massachusetts Democratic primary voters delivered Sen. Ed Markey a decisive victory over Rep. Seth Moulton on September 1, with certified results showing Markey at roughly 65% and Moulton near 35% for a margin in the 25–30 point range. Markey’s campaign emphasized his progressive record on the Green New Deal and Medicare for All, bolstered by high-profile endorsements from Sens. Elizabeth Warren and Bernie Sanders plus Reps. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez and Ayanna Pressley. Moulton’s focus on generational change and age concerns failed to gain traction despite a spending edge and moderate support. Late-summer polling trends confirmed Markey’s expanding lead, aligning trader consensus with the observed outcome and leaving limited room for shifts absent final vote certification adjustments.
The Massachusetts state primary is scheduled to be held on September 1, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the Massachusetts Democratic Primary for U.S. Senator.
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket.
If two candidates receive the exact same highest number of valid votes and both are listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for the tied candidate whose last name comes first alphabetically. If only one of the tied candidates is listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for that listed candidate. If neither tied candidate is listed, this market will resolve to “Other.”
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the results of the specified election are not known definitively by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.
The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the Commonwealth of Massachusetts, such as official statewide results published by the Massachusetts Secretary of the Commonwealth (https://www.sec.state.ma.us/); however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the Massachusetts Democratic Primary for U.S. Senator.
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket.
If two candidates receive the exact same highest number of valid votes and both are listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for the tied candidate whose last name comes first alphabetically. If only one of the tied candidates is listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for that listed candidate. If neither tied candidate is listed, this market will resolve to “Other.”
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the results of the specified election are not known definitively by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.
The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the Commonwealth of Massachusetts, such as official statewide results published by the Massachusetts Secretary of the Commonwealth (https://www.sec.state.ma.us/); however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
Market Opened: Aug 20, 2026, 5:36 PM ET
Volume
$12,730End Date
Sep 1, 2026Market Opened
Aug 20, 2026, 5:36 PM ETResolution Source
https://www.sec.state.ma.us/Resolver
0x69c47De9D...The Massachusetts state primary is scheduled to be held on September 1, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the Massachusetts Democratic Primary for U.S. Senator.
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket.
If two candidates receive the exact same highest number of valid votes and both are listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for the tied candidate whose last name comes first alphabetically. If only one of the tied candidates is listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for that listed candidate. If neither tied candidate is listed, this market will resolve to “Other.”
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the results of the specified election are not known definitively by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.
The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the Commonwealth of Massachusetts, such as official statewide results published by the Massachusetts Secretary of the Commonwealth (https://www.sec.state.ma.us/); however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.Massachusetts Democratic primary voters delivered Sen. Ed Markey a decisive victory over Rep. Seth Moulton on September 1, with certified results showing Markey at roughly 65% and Moulton near 35% for a margin in the 25–30 point range. Markey’s campaign emphasized his progressive record on the Green New Deal and Medicare for All, bolstered by high-profile endorsements from Sens. Elizabeth Warren and Bernie Sanders plus Reps. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez and Ayanna Pressley. Moulton’s focus on generational change and age concerns failed to gain traction despite a spending edge and moderate support. Late-summer polling trends confirmed Markey’s expanding lead, aligning trader consensus with the observed outcome and leaving limited room for shifts absent final vote certification adjustments.
The Massachusetts state primary is scheduled to be held on September 1, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the Massachusetts Democratic Primary for U.S. Senator.
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket.
If two candidates receive the exact same highest number of valid votes and both are listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for the tied candidate whose last name comes first alphabetically. If only one of the tied candidates is listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for that listed candidate. If neither tied candidate is listed, this market will resolve to “Other.”
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the results of the specified election are not known definitively by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.
The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the Commonwealth of Massachusetts, such as official statewide results published by the Massachusetts Secretary of the Commonwealth (https://www.sec.state.ma.us/); however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the Massachusetts Democratic Primary for U.S. Senator.
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket.
If two candidates receive the exact same highest number of valid votes and both are listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for the tied candidate whose last name comes first alphabetically. If only one of the tied candidates is listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for that listed candidate. If neither tied candidate is listed, this market will resolve to “Other.”
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the results of the specified election are not known definitively by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.
The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the Commonwealth of Massachusetts, such as official statewide results published by the Massachusetts Secretary of the Commonwealth (https://www.sec.state.ma.us/); however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
Volume
$12,730End Date
Sep 1, 2026Market Opened
Aug 20, 2026, 5:36 PM ETResolution Source
https://www.sec.state.ma.us/Resolver
0x69c47De9D...Massachusetts Democratic primary voters delivered Sen. Ed Markey a decisive victory over Rep. Seth Moulton on September 1, with certified results showing Markey at roughly 65% and Moulton near 35% for a margin in the 25–30 point range. Markey’s campaign emphasized his progressive record on the Green New Deal and Medicare for All, bolstered by high-profile endorsements from Sens. Elizabeth Warren and Bernie Sanders plus Reps. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez and Ayanna Pressley. Moulton’s focus on generational change and age concerns failed to gain traction despite a spending edge and moderate support. Late-summer polling trends confirmed Markey’s expanding lead, aligning trader consensus with the observed outcome and leaving limited room for shifts absent final vote certification adjustments.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
Beware of external links.
Beware of external links.
Frequently Asked Questions