Ashley Moody holds a 69% implied probability of carrying Miami-Dade County in the November 3, 2026, Florida U.S. Senate special election, ahead of Angie Nixon at 30.5%. Moody secured the Republican nomination with nearly 80% of the primary vote after her appointment to the seat vacated by Marco Rubio, while Nixon defeated better-funded rival Alex Vindman in an August upset to claim the Democratic nod. Florida’s Republican tilt, Moody’s incumbency and law-enforcement record, and Nixon’s identification with democratic socialist policies contribute to trader consensus favoring the Republican even in the diverse urban county. With roughly two months until Election Day, limited recent polling and the absence of major new campaign developments have kept probabilities stable.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedNEW
NEW
Nov 3, 2026
Ashley Moody (R)
71%
Angie Nixon (D)
30%
NEW
NEW
Nov 3, 2026
Ashley Moody (R)
$213 Vol.
71%
Angie Nixon (D)
$310 Vol.
30%
This market will resolve according to the party nominee or independent candidate that receives the most valid votes from Miami-Dade County in the general special election for United States Senator from Florida, which is scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026.
The candidates will be primarily ranked by the number of valid votes received in the specified election. If two or more candidates are tied on valid votes, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidate last names. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
The nominees of the Democratic and Republican parties are named in the contract for the convenience of traders. In the event that any named candidate is replaced as the nominee of their respective party prior to election day, the name in the contract will be updated and the market will resolve based on the replacement nominee of the party.
If the results of the election in the specified county are not definitively known by March 31, 2027, this market will resolve to “Other.”
This market will resolve based on a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the government of Florida, including the Office of the Secretary of State and the government of Miami-Dade County.Ashley Moody holds a 69% implied probability of carrying Miami-Dade County in the November 3, 2026, Florida U.S. Senate special election, ahead of Angie Nixon at 30.5%. Moody secured the Republican nomination with nearly 80% of the primary vote after her appointment to the seat vacated by Marco Rubio, while Nixon defeated better-funded rival Alex Vindman in an August upset to claim the Democratic nod. Florida’s Republican tilt, Moody’s incumbency and law-enforcement record, and Nixon’s identification with democratic socialist policies contribute to trader consensus favoring the Republican even in the diverse urban county. With roughly two months until Election Day, limited recent polling and the absence of major new campaign developments have kept probabilities stable.
This market will resolve according to the party nominee or independent candidate that receives the most valid votes from Miami-Dade County in the general special election for United States Senator from Florida, which is scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026.
The candidates will be primarily ranked by the number of valid votes received in the specified election. If two or more candidates are tied on valid votes, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidate last names. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
The nominees of the Democratic and Republican parties are named in the contract for the convenience of traders. In the event that any named candidate is replaced as the nominee of their respective party prior to election day, the name in the contract will be updated and the market will resolve based on the replacement nominee of the party.
If the results of the election in the specified county are not definitively known by March 31, 2027, this market will resolve to “Other.”
This market will resolve based on a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the government of Florida, including the Office of the Secretary of State and the government of Miami-Dade County.
The candidates will be primarily ranked by the number of valid votes received in the specified election. If two or more candidates are tied on valid votes, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidate last names. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
The nominees of the Democratic and Republican parties are named in the contract for the convenience of traders. In the event that any named candidate is replaced as the nominee of their respective party prior to election day, the name in the contract will be updated and the market will resolve based on the replacement nominee of the party.
If the results of the election in the specified county are not definitively known by March 31, 2027, this market will resolve to “Other.”
This market will resolve based on a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the government of Florida, including the Office of the Secretary of State and the government of Miami-Dade County.
Market Opened: Sep 1, 2026, 12:41 PM ET
Volume
$523End Date
Nov 3, 2026Market Opened
Sep 1, 2026, 12:41 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the party nominee or independent candidate that receives the most valid votes from Miami-Dade County in the general special election for United States Senator from Florida, which is scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026.
The candidates will be primarily ranked by the number of valid votes received in the specified election. If two or more candidates are tied on valid votes, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidate last names. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
The nominees of the Democratic and Republican parties are named in the contract for the convenience of traders. In the event that any named candidate is replaced as the nominee of their respective party prior to election day, the name in the contract will be updated and the market will resolve based on the replacement nominee of the party.
If the results of the election in the specified county are not definitively known by March 31, 2027, this market will resolve to “Other.”
This market will resolve based on a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the government of Florida, including the Office of the Secretary of State and the government of Miami-Dade County.Ashley Moody holds a 69% implied probability of carrying Miami-Dade County in the November 3, 2026, Florida U.S. Senate special election, ahead of Angie Nixon at 30.5%. Moody secured the Republican nomination with nearly 80% of the primary vote after her appointment to the seat vacated by Marco Rubio, while Nixon defeated better-funded rival Alex Vindman in an August upset to claim the Democratic nod. Florida’s Republican tilt, Moody’s incumbency and law-enforcement record, and Nixon’s identification with democratic socialist policies contribute to trader consensus favoring the Republican even in the diverse urban county. With roughly two months until Election Day, limited recent polling and the absence of major new campaign developments have kept probabilities stable.
This market will resolve according to the party nominee or independent candidate that receives the most valid votes from Miami-Dade County in the general special election for United States Senator from Florida, which is scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026.
The candidates will be primarily ranked by the number of valid votes received in the specified election. If two or more candidates are tied on valid votes, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidate last names. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
The nominees of the Democratic and Republican parties are named in the contract for the convenience of traders. In the event that any named candidate is replaced as the nominee of their respective party prior to election day, the name in the contract will be updated and the market will resolve based on the replacement nominee of the party.
If the results of the election in the specified county are not definitively known by March 31, 2027, this market will resolve to “Other.”
This market will resolve based on a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the government of Florida, including the Office of the Secretary of State and the government of Miami-Dade County.
The candidates will be primarily ranked by the number of valid votes received in the specified election. If two or more candidates are tied on valid votes, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidate last names. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
The nominees of the Democratic and Republican parties are named in the contract for the convenience of traders. In the event that any named candidate is replaced as the nominee of their respective party prior to election day, the name in the contract will be updated and the market will resolve based on the replacement nominee of the party.
If the results of the election in the specified county are not definitively known by March 31, 2027, this market will resolve to “Other.”
This market will resolve based on a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the government of Florida, including the Office of the Secretary of State and the government of Miami-Dade County.
Volume
$523End Date
Nov 3, 2026Market Opened
Sep 1, 2026, 12:41 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Ashley Moody holds a 69% implied probability of carrying Miami-Dade County in the November 3, 2026, Florida U.S. Senate special election, ahead of Angie Nixon at 30.5%. Moody secured the Republican nomination with nearly 80% of the primary vote after her appointment to the seat vacated by Marco Rubio, while Nixon defeated better-funded rival Alex Vindman in an August upset to claim the Democratic nod. Florida’s Republican tilt, Moody’s incumbency and law-enforcement record, and Nixon’s identification with democratic socialist policies contribute to trader consensus favoring the Republican even in the diverse urban county. With roughly two months until Election Day, limited recent polling and the absence of major new campaign developments have kept probabilities stable.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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