Michigan stands out as the leading outcome because it is the sole Democratic-held open seat rated a toss-up by multiple forecasters, set in a narrow swing state where recent presidential margins have been under two points. Democratic nominee Abdul El-Sayed, who prevailed in the August primary, faces Republican Mike Rogers in polling that has remained close, with several surveys showing single-digit leads either way. In contrast, Alaska, Maine, Ohio, Iowa, and Texas represent Republican-held seats where Democrats must overcome structural leans through candidates like Mary Peltola and Sherrod Brown, though recent Cook Political Report shifts have expanded the overall battlefield. Trader consensus reflects Michigan’s defensive advantage and the relative difficulty of pickups elsewhere ahead of November.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedDems' best tossup Senate race?
Dems' best tossup Senate race?
Michigan 55%
Alaska 21%
Maine 16%
Iowa 5.2%
NEW
NEW
Nov 3, 2026
Michigan
55%
Alaska
21%
Maine
16%
Iowa
5%
Texas
5%
Ohio
4%
Michigan 55%
Alaska 21%
Maine 16%
Iowa 5.2%
NEW
NEW
Nov 3, 2026
Michigan
$2,634 Vol.
55%
Alaska
$201 Vol.
21%
Maine
$195 Vol.
16%
Iowa
$109 Vol.
5%
Texas
$114 Vol.
5%
Ohio
$273 Vol.
4%
The 2026 midterm elections are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the state, out of those listed, in which the Democratic Senate candidate earns the highest vote share percentage in the midterm election.
Vote share percentages will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes for each candidate by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
For elections that include runoffs, ranked-choice, or other multi-round elections, the relevant vote share will be that of the last-reported round containing a Democrat, and only non-exhausted ballots will be considered to be valid in that round. In the event that such a round contains multiple Democrats, this market will resolve in favor of the Democrat with the higher vote share.
If two vote shares are identical, this market will rank the tied states in alphabetical order.
In the event that the relevant vote share for a state cannot be determined by March 31, 2027, that state will not be considered for purposes of this market.
The resolution source for this market will be a compilation of all of the relevant state election authorities responsible for certifying statewide elections, however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Michigan stands out as the leading outcome because it is the sole Democratic-held open seat rated a toss-up by multiple forecasters, set in a narrow swing state where recent presidential margins have been under two points. Democratic nominee Abdul El-Sayed, who prevailed in the August primary, faces Republican Mike Rogers in polling that has remained close, with several surveys showing single-digit leads either way. In contrast, Alaska, Maine, Ohio, Iowa, and Texas represent Republican-held seats where Democrats must overcome structural leans through candidates like Mary Peltola and Sherrod Brown, though recent Cook Political Report shifts have expanded the overall battlefield. Trader consensus reflects Michigan’s defensive advantage and the relative difficulty of pickups elsewhere ahead of November.
The 2026 midterm elections are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the state, out of those listed, in which the Democratic Senate candidate earns the highest vote share percentage in the midterm election.
Vote share percentages will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes for each candidate by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
For elections that include runoffs, ranked-choice, or other multi-round elections, the relevant vote share will be that of the last-reported round containing a Democrat, and only non-exhausted ballots will be considered to be valid in that round. In the event that such a round contains multiple Democrats, this market will resolve in favor of the Democrat with the higher vote share.
If two vote shares are identical, this market will rank the tied states in alphabetical order.
In the event that the relevant vote share for a state cannot be determined by March 31, 2027, that state will not be considered for purposes of this market.
The resolution source for this market will be a compilation of all of the relevant state election authorities responsible for certifying statewide elections, however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market will resolve according to the state, out of those listed, in which the Democratic Senate candidate earns the highest vote share percentage in the midterm election.
Vote share percentages will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes for each candidate by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
For elections that include runoffs, ranked-choice, or other multi-round elections, the relevant vote share will be that of the last-reported round containing a Democrat, and only non-exhausted ballots will be considered to be valid in that round. In the event that such a round contains multiple Democrats, this market will resolve in favor of the Democrat with the higher vote share.
If two vote shares are identical, this market will rank the tied states in alphabetical order.
In the event that the relevant vote share for a state cannot be determined by March 31, 2027, that state will not be considered for purposes of this market.
The resolution source for this market will be a compilation of all of the relevant state election authorities responsible for certifying statewide elections, however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Market Opened: Sep 2, 2026, 1:44 PM ET
Volume
$3,526End Date
Nov 3, 2026Market Opened
Sep 2, 2026, 1:44 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...The 2026 midterm elections are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the state, out of those listed, in which the Democratic Senate candidate earns the highest vote share percentage in the midterm election.
Vote share percentages will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes for each candidate by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
For elections that include runoffs, ranked-choice, or other multi-round elections, the relevant vote share will be that of the last-reported round containing a Democrat, and only non-exhausted ballots will be considered to be valid in that round. In the event that such a round contains multiple Democrats, this market will resolve in favor of the Democrat with the higher vote share.
If two vote shares are identical, this market will rank the tied states in alphabetical order.
In the event that the relevant vote share for a state cannot be determined by March 31, 2027, that state will not be considered for purposes of this market.
The resolution source for this market will be a compilation of all of the relevant state election authorities responsible for certifying statewide elections, however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Michigan stands out as the leading outcome because it is the sole Democratic-held open seat rated a toss-up by multiple forecasters, set in a narrow swing state where recent presidential margins have been under two points. Democratic nominee Abdul El-Sayed, who prevailed in the August primary, faces Republican Mike Rogers in polling that has remained close, with several surveys showing single-digit leads either way. In contrast, Alaska, Maine, Ohio, Iowa, and Texas represent Republican-held seats where Democrats must overcome structural leans through candidates like Mary Peltola and Sherrod Brown, though recent Cook Political Report shifts have expanded the overall battlefield. Trader consensus reflects Michigan’s defensive advantage and the relative difficulty of pickups elsewhere ahead of November.
The 2026 midterm elections are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the state, out of those listed, in which the Democratic Senate candidate earns the highest vote share percentage in the midterm election.
Vote share percentages will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes for each candidate by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
For elections that include runoffs, ranked-choice, or other multi-round elections, the relevant vote share will be that of the last-reported round containing a Democrat, and only non-exhausted ballots will be considered to be valid in that round. In the event that such a round contains multiple Democrats, this market will resolve in favor of the Democrat with the higher vote share.
If two vote shares are identical, this market will rank the tied states in alphabetical order.
In the event that the relevant vote share for a state cannot be determined by March 31, 2027, that state will not be considered for purposes of this market.
The resolution source for this market will be a compilation of all of the relevant state election authorities responsible for certifying statewide elections, however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market will resolve according to the state, out of those listed, in which the Democratic Senate candidate earns the highest vote share percentage in the midterm election.
Vote share percentages will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes for each candidate by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
For elections that include runoffs, ranked-choice, or other multi-round elections, the relevant vote share will be that of the last-reported round containing a Democrat, and only non-exhausted ballots will be considered to be valid in that round. In the event that such a round contains multiple Democrats, this market will resolve in favor of the Democrat with the higher vote share.
If two vote shares are identical, this market will rank the tied states in alphabetical order.
In the event that the relevant vote share for a state cannot be determined by March 31, 2027, that state will not be considered for purposes of this market.
The resolution source for this market will be a compilation of all of the relevant state election authorities responsible for certifying statewide elections, however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volume
$3,526End Date
Nov 3, 2026Market Opened
Sep 2, 2026, 1:44 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Michigan stands out as the leading outcome because it is the sole Democratic-held open seat rated a toss-up by multiple forecasters, set in a narrow swing state where recent presidential margins have been under two points. Democratic nominee Abdul El-Sayed, who prevailed in the August primary, faces Republican Mike Rogers in polling that has remained close, with several surveys showing single-digit leads either way. In contrast, Alaska, Maine, Ohio, Iowa, and Texas represent Republican-held seats where Democrats must overcome structural leans through candidates like Mary Peltola and Sherrod Brown, though recent Cook Political Report shifts have expanded the overall battlefield. Trader consensus reflects Michigan’s defensive advantage and the relative difficulty of pickups elsewhere ahead of November.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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