Several open Senate seats in battleground states, driven by retirements including those of Sens. Thom Tillis in North Carolina, Gary Peters in Michigan, and Jeanne Shaheen in New Hampshire, have created multiple contests rated as toss-ups or near toss-ups by forecasters. Recent polling aggregates show Texas, Alaska, and Ohio within or near 1 point, while Maine and New Hampshire sit just outside that threshold, reflecting tight margins shaped by the national generic ballot environment and candidate matchups such as Roy Cooper in North Carolina. With the November 2026 election approaching, primary outcomes, voter turnout in swing areas, and any late shifts in the broader political climate remain key variables that could determine which races finish within 1%.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedNEW
Nov 3, 2026
Ohio (Special)
50%
Alaska
30%
Maine
21%
New Hampshire
19%
Texas
18%
Michigan
15%
Iowa
14%
Minnesota
12%
North Carolina
11%
Georgia
10%
New Mexico
8%
Montana
4%
Colorado
4%
Virginia
3%
Nebraska
46%
Florida (Special)
46%
$2,274 Vol.
Ohio (Special)
$84 Vol.
50%
Alaska
$48 Vol.
30%
Maine
$0 Vol.
21%
New Hampshire
$116 Vol.
19%
Texas
$52 Vol.
18%
Michigan
$177 Vol.
15%
Iowa
$20 Vol.
14%
Minnesota
$61 Vol.
12%
North Carolina
$10 Vol.
11%
Georgia
$0 Vol.
10%
New Mexico
$274 Vol.
8%
Montana
$154 Vol.
4%
Colorado
$945 Vol.
4%
Virginia
$157 Vol.
3%
Nebraska
$106 Vol.
46%
Florida (Special)
$70 Vol.
46%
The 2026 midterm elections are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the specified 2026 Senate race has a margin of victory of 1% or less. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
For elections that include runoffs, ranked-choice, or other multi-round elections, the relevant margin of victory will be that of the round in which the winner is determined.
The resolution source for this market will be the state election authority of the specified state, however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Several open Senate seats in battleground states, driven by retirements including those of Sens. Thom Tillis in North Carolina, Gary Peters in Michigan, and Jeanne Shaheen in New Hampshire, have created multiple contests rated as toss-ups or near toss-ups by forecasters. Recent polling aggregates show Texas, Alaska, and Ohio within or near 1 point, while Maine and New Hampshire sit just outside that threshold, reflecting tight margins shaped by the national generic ballot environment and candidate matchups such as Roy Cooper in North Carolina. With the November 2026 election approaching, primary outcomes, voter turnout in swing areas, and any late shifts in the broader political climate remain key variables that could determine which races finish within 1%.
The 2026 midterm elections are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the specified 2026 Senate race has a margin of victory of 1% or less. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
For elections that include runoffs, ranked-choice, or other multi-round elections, the relevant margin of victory will be that of the round in which the winner is determined.
The resolution source for this market will be the state election authority of the specified state, however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the specified 2026 Senate race has a margin of victory of 1% or less. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
For elections that include runoffs, ranked-choice, or other multi-round elections, the relevant margin of victory will be that of the round in which the winner is determined.
The resolution source for this market will be the state election authority of the specified state, however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Market Opened: Aug 21, 2026, 4:06 PM ET
Volume
$2,274End Date
Nov 3, 2026Market Opened
Aug 21, 2026, 4:06 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...The 2026 midterm elections are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the specified 2026 Senate race has a margin of victory of 1% or less. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
For elections that include runoffs, ranked-choice, or other multi-round elections, the relevant margin of victory will be that of the round in which the winner is determined.
The resolution source for this market will be the state election authority of the specified state, however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Several open Senate seats in battleground states, driven by retirements including those of Sens. Thom Tillis in North Carolina, Gary Peters in Michigan, and Jeanne Shaheen in New Hampshire, have created multiple contests rated as toss-ups or near toss-ups by forecasters. Recent polling aggregates show Texas, Alaska, and Ohio within or near 1 point, while Maine and New Hampshire sit just outside that threshold, reflecting tight margins shaped by the national generic ballot environment and candidate matchups such as Roy Cooper in North Carolina. With the November 2026 election approaching, primary outcomes, voter turnout in swing areas, and any late shifts in the broader political climate remain key variables that could determine which races finish within 1%.
The 2026 midterm elections are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the specified 2026 Senate race has a margin of victory of 1% or less. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
For elections that include runoffs, ranked-choice, or other multi-round elections, the relevant margin of victory will be that of the round in which the winner is determined.
The resolution source for this market will be the state election authority of the specified state, however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the specified 2026 Senate race has a margin of victory of 1% or less. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
For elections that include runoffs, ranked-choice, or other multi-round elections, the relevant margin of victory will be that of the round in which the winner is determined.
The resolution source for this market will be the state election authority of the specified state, however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volume
$2,274End Date
Nov 3, 2026Market Opened
Aug 21, 2026, 4:06 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Several open Senate seats in battleground states, driven by retirements including those of Sens. Thom Tillis in North Carolina, Gary Peters in Michigan, and Jeanne Shaheen in New Hampshire, have created multiple contests rated as toss-ups or near toss-ups by forecasters. Recent polling aggregates show Texas, Alaska, and Ohio within or near 1 point, while Maine and New Hampshire sit just outside that threshold, reflecting tight margins shaped by the national generic ballot environment and candidate matchups such as Roy Cooper in North Carolina. With the November 2026 election approaching, primary outcomes, voter turnout in swing areas, and any late shifts in the broader political climate remain key variables that could determine which races finish within 1%.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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