Jon Ossoff holds a consistent polling lead of roughly 6–8 points over Republican challenger Mike Collins in Georgia’s 2026 Senate race, supported by strong fundraising totals exceeding $80 million raised and more than $42 million cash on hand. Forecasters rate the contest Lean or Likely Democratic, reflecting Ossoff’s incumbency advantages and voter outreach in the swing state. Raphael Warnock’s term extends through 2028 with no reelection or reported departure pressures in 2026. Trader consensus at 96.9% for “No” aligns with these fundamentals, though late shifts in turnout, campaign developments, or external events before the November 3 general election could still alter the outcome.