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icon for Which Senate races will be within 5%?
Politics·Senate

Which Senate races will be within 5%?

icon for Which Senate races will be within 5%?
Politics·Senate

Which Senate races will be within 5%?

$58,394 Vol.

Nov 3, 2026
Polymarket

$58,394 Vol.

Polymarket

Texas

$5,767 Vol.

79%

Iowa

$5,463 Vol.

63%

Michigan

$2,675 Vol.

70%

Ohio (Special)

$3,485 Vol.

59%

Maine

$1,011 Vol.

54%

Alaska

$2,789 Vol.

63%

Nebraska

$3,569 Vol.

42%

North Carolina

$5,184 Vol.

41%

New Hampshire

$2,150 Vol.

41%

Florida (Special)

$2,178 Vol.

37%

South Carolina

$109 Vol.

30%

Georgia

$1,163 Vol.

30%

Kansas

$250 Vol.

24%

Minnesota

$9,414 Vol.

22%

New Mexico

$6,562 Vol.

11%

Montana

$2,739 Vol.

10%

Virginia

$1,344 Vol.

5%

Colorado

$2,543 Vol.

4%

The 2026 midterm elections are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026. This market will resolve to "Yes" if the specified 2026 Senate race has a margin of victory of 5% or less. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election. For elections that include runoffs, ranked-choice, or other multi-round elections, the relevant margin of victory will be that of the round in which the winner is determined. The resolution source for this market will be the state election authority of the specified state, however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Several 2026 Senate contests stand out as potential toss-ups or near-toss-ups due to open seats, swing-state dynamics, and candidate matchups in states such as North Carolina, Michigan, Maine, Alaska, Ohio, and Iowa. Retirements have created vacancies in North Carolina and Michigan, drawing strong challengers including former Governor Roy Cooper and former Representative Mike Rogers. Recent primaries produced nominees like Abdul El-Sayed in Michigan and Troy Jackson in Maine, while polling aggregates show narrow leads or ties in multiple battlegrounds amid a shifting national environment. The November 3 election date leaves room for late shifts from turnout patterns, additional debate performances, or economic indicators that could compress or widen final margins in these races.

The 2026 midterm elections are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the specified 2026 Senate race has a margin of victory of 5% or less. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.

For elections that include runoffs, ranked-choice, or other multi-round elections, the relevant margin of victory will be that of the round in which the winner is determined.

The resolution source for this market will be the state election authority of the specified state, however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.The 2026 midterm elections are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026. This market will resolve to "Yes" if the specified 2026 Senate race has a margin of victory of 5% or less. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election. For elections that include runoffs, ranked-choice, or other multi-round elections, the relevant margin of victory will be that of the round in which the winner is determined. The resolution source for this market will be the state election authority of the specified state, however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volume
$58,394
End Date
Nov 3, 2026
Market Opened
Jul 29, 2026, 2:38 PM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
The 2026 midterm elections are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026. This market will resolve to "Yes" if the specified 2026 Senate race has a margin of victory of 5% or less. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election. For elections that include runoffs, ranked-choice, or other multi-round elections, the relevant margin of victory will be that of the round in which the winner is determined. The resolution source for this market will be the state election authority of the specified state, however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Several 2026 Senate contests stand out as potential toss-ups or near-toss-ups due to open seats, swing-state dynamics, and candidate matchups in states such as North Carolina, Michigan, Maine, Alaska, Ohio, and Iowa. Retirements have created vacancies in North Carolina and Michigan, drawing strong challengers including former Governor Roy Cooper and former Representative Mike Rogers. Recent primaries produced nominees like Abdul El-Sayed in Michigan and Troy Jackson in Maine, while polling aggregates show narrow leads or ties in multiple battlegrounds amid a shifting national environment. The November 3 election date leaves room for late shifts from turnout patterns, additional debate performances, or economic indicators that could compress or widen final margins in these races.

The 2026 midterm elections are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the specified 2026 Senate race has a margin of victory of 5% or less. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.

For elections that include runoffs, ranked-choice, or other multi-round elections, the relevant margin of victory will be that of the round in which the winner is determined.

The resolution source for this market will be the state election authority of the specified state, however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.The 2026 midterm elections are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026. This market will resolve to "Yes" if the specified 2026 Senate race has a margin of victory of 5% or less. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election. For elections that include runoffs, ranked-choice, or other multi-round elections, the relevant margin of victory will be that of the round in which the winner is determined. The resolution source for this market will be the state election authority of the specified state, however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volume
$58,394
End Date
Nov 3, 2026
Market Opened
Jul 29, 2026, 2:38 PM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...

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Frequently Asked Questions

"Which Senate races will be within 5%?" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 18 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "Texas" at 79%, followed by "Michigan" at 70%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 79¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 79% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

As of today, "Which Senate races will be within 5%?" has generated $58.4K in total trading volume since the market launched on Jul 29, 2026. This level of trading activity reflects strong engagement from the Polymarket community and helps ensure that the current odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants. You can track live price movements and trade on any outcome directly on this page.

To trade on "Which Senate races will be within 5%?," browse the 18 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "Which Senate races will be within 5%?" is "Texas" at 79%, meaning the market assigns a 79% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "Michigan" at 70%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "Which Senate races will be within 5%?" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.