Several 2026 Senate contests currently poll within 3 points or less, with Texas, Iowa, Michigan, and Maine emerging as the tightest based on recent surveys and trader pricing. Open seats in Michigan after Gary Peters’ retirement and Iowa after Joni Ernst’s decision not to run, combined with retirements in North Carolina and Ohio’s special election, have produced competitive matchups featuring experienced nominees on both sides. National polling averages and state-level data show these races remain sensitive to turnout patterns, late-cycle advertising, and any shifts in the broader political environment. Further polling releases, candidate debates, or unexpected developments in candidate recruitment could widen margins in one or more of these states before November.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedTexas 16%
Iowa 12.4%
Michigan 10.7%
Maine 9%
$36,607 Vol.
$36,607 Vol.
Nov 3, 2026
Texas
16%
Iowa
12%
Michigan
11%
Maine
9%
Alaska
9%
Ohio (Special)
8%
Nebraska
7%
Virginia
4%
Colorado
3%
Florida (Special)
3%
Montana
3%
Georgia
2%
New Hampshire
2%
North Carolina
7%
New Mexico
2%
Minnesota
1%
Texas 16%
Iowa 12.4%
Michigan 10.7%
Maine 9%
$36,607 Vol.
$36,607 Vol.
Nov 3, 2026
Texas
$1,816 Vol.
16%
Iowa
$2,959 Vol.
12%
Michigan
$2,833 Vol.
11%
Maine
$1,305 Vol.
9%
Alaska
$7,287 Vol.
9%
Ohio (Special)
$8,805 Vol.
8%
Nebraska
$293 Vol.
7%
Virginia
$5,073 Vol.
4%
Colorado
$716 Vol.
3%
Florida (Special)
$253 Vol.
3%
Montana
$1,284 Vol.
3%
Georgia
$824 Vol.
2%
New Hampshire
$659 Vol.
2%
North Carolina
$851 Vol.
7%
New Mexico
$160 Vol.
2%
Minnesota
$1,489 Vol.
1%
The 2026 midterm elections are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the US Senate race which has the smallest margin of victory.
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
For elections that include runoffs, ranked-choice, or other multi-round elections, the relevant margin of victory will be that of the round in which the winner is determined.
If two state margins of victory are identical, this market will resolve to the tied state whose last name comes first alphabetically.
This market will consider the results of all Senate elections, including special elections, that are scheduled to be held in November, 2026, by October 31, 2026, including the results of runoff elections held after November, 2026.
The resolution source for this market will be a compilation of all of the relevant state election authorities responsible for certifying statewide elections, however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Several 2026 Senate contests currently poll within 3 points or less, with Texas, Iowa, Michigan, and Maine emerging as the tightest based on recent surveys and trader pricing. Open seats in Michigan after Gary Peters’ retirement and Iowa after Joni Ernst’s decision not to run, combined with retirements in North Carolina and Ohio’s special election, have produced competitive matchups featuring experienced nominees on both sides. National polling averages and state-level data show these races remain sensitive to turnout patterns, late-cycle advertising, and any shifts in the broader political environment. Further polling releases, candidate debates, or unexpected developments in candidate recruitment could widen margins in one or more of these states before November.
The 2026 midterm elections are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the US Senate race which has the smallest margin of victory.
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
For elections that include runoffs, ranked-choice, or other multi-round elections, the relevant margin of victory will be that of the round in which the winner is determined.
If two state margins of victory are identical, this market will resolve to the tied state whose last name comes first alphabetically.
This market will consider the results of all Senate elections, including special elections, that are scheduled to be held in November, 2026, by October 31, 2026, including the results of runoff elections held after November, 2026.
The resolution source for this market will be a compilation of all of the relevant state election authorities responsible for certifying statewide elections, however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market will resolve according to the US Senate race which has the smallest margin of victory.
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
For elections that include runoffs, ranked-choice, or other multi-round elections, the relevant margin of victory will be that of the round in which the winner is determined.
If two state margins of victory are identical, this market will resolve to the tied state whose last name comes first alphabetically.
This market will consider the results of all Senate elections, including special elections, that are scheduled to be held in November, 2026, by October 31, 2026, including the results of runoff elections held after November, 2026.
The resolution source for this market will be a compilation of all of the relevant state election authorities responsible for certifying statewide elections, however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Market Opened: Jun 26, 2026, 3:52 PM ET
Volume
$36,607End Date
Nov 3, 2026Market Opened
Jun 26, 2026, 3:52 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...The 2026 midterm elections are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the US Senate race which has the smallest margin of victory.
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
For elections that include runoffs, ranked-choice, or other multi-round elections, the relevant margin of victory will be that of the round in which the winner is determined.
If two state margins of victory are identical, this market will resolve to the tied state whose last name comes first alphabetically.
This market will consider the results of all Senate elections, including special elections, that are scheduled to be held in November, 2026, by October 31, 2026, including the results of runoff elections held after November, 2026.
The resolution source for this market will be a compilation of all of the relevant state election authorities responsible for certifying statewide elections, however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Several 2026 Senate contests currently poll within 3 points or less, with Texas, Iowa, Michigan, and Maine emerging as the tightest based on recent surveys and trader pricing. Open seats in Michigan after Gary Peters’ retirement and Iowa after Joni Ernst’s decision not to run, combined with retirements in North Carolina and Ohio’s special election, have produced competitive matchups featuring experienced nominees on both sides. National polling averages and state-level data show these races remain sensitive to turnout patterns, late-cycle advertising, and any shifts in the broader political environment. Further polling releases, candidate debates, or unexpected developments in candidate recruitment could widen margins in one or more of these states before November.
The 2026 midterm elections are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the US Senate race which has the smallest margin of victory.
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
For elections that include runoffs, ranked-choice, or other multi-round elections, the relevant margin of victory will be that of the round in which the winner is determined.
If two state margins of victory are identical, this market will resolve to the tied state whose last name comes first alphabetically.
This market will consider the results of all Senate elections, including special elections, that are scheduled to be held in November, 2026, by October 31, 2026, including the results of runoff elections held after November, 2026.
The resolution source for this market will be a compilation of all of the relevant state election authorities responsible for certifying statewide elections, however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market will resolve according to the US Senate race which has the smallest margin of victory.
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
For elections that include runoffs, ranked-choice, or other multi-round elections, the relevant margin of victory will be that of the round in which the winner is determined.
If two state margins of victory are identical, this market will resolve to the tied state whose last name comes first alphabetically.
This market will consider the results of all Senate elections, including special elections, that are scheduled to be held in November, 2026, by October 31, 2026, including the results of runoff elections held after November, 2026.
The resolution source for this market will be a compilation of all of the relevant state election authorities responsible for certifying statewide elections, however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volume
$36,607End Date
Nov 3, 2026Market Opened
Jun 26, 2026, 3:52 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Several 2026 Senate contests currently poll within 3 points or less, with Texas, Iowa, Michigan, and Maine emerging as the tightest based on recent surveys and trader pricing. Open seats in Michigan after Gary Peters’ retirement and Iowa after Joni Ernst’s decision not to run, combined with retirements in North Carolina and Ohio’s special election, have produced competitive matchups featuring experienced nominees on both sides. National polling averages and state-level data show these races remain sensitive to turnout patterns, late-cycle advertising, and any shifts in the broader political environment. Further polling releases, candidate debates, or unexpected developments in candidate recruitment could widen margins in one or more of these states before November.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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