Recent Federal Reserve stress tests underscore the resilience of the largest U.S. banks, with all 32 participants maintaining common equity Tier 1 ratios above minimums despite absorbing $708 billion in hypothetical losses under a severe recession scenario featuring 10% unemployment and sharp declines in real estate and equity prices. Aggregate capital fell just 1.6 percentage points to 11.2%, the smallest decline in years, reflecting solid starting buffers, diversified portfolios, and higher interest income that offset credit losses. Only smaller community banks have failed in 2026 amid firm-specific issues, while industry quarterly net income reached $90.1 billion in Q2. This evidence of capital strength and regulatory oversight drives the 93% market-implied probability against a major bailout before 2027. A deeper-than-expected downturn or concentrated commercial real estate shock could still test these buffers.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedMajor U.S. bank bailout before 2027?
Major U.S. bank bailout before 2027?
7% chance
NEW
NEW
Dec 31, 2026
7% chance
NEW
NEW
Dec 31, 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a U.S. bank with total assets exceeding $50 billion as of November 11, 2025 (see:https://www.federalreserve.gov/releases/lbr/current/), is bailed out by the U.S. federal government by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise this market will resolve to “No”.
A bailout is defined as any of these actions in direct response to directly related to solvency, liquidity, or capital adequacy concerns.
-Establishing a Federal Reserve emergency lending facility
-Creating an FDIC-assisted resolution or bridge bank
-A U.S. Treasury capital injection
-A publicly disclosed, regulatory-facilitated acquisition
An official announcement from the U.S. government that they are taking any of these actions will qualify regardless of if/when the action occurs.
Routine access to standing facilities (such as the discount window or BTFP) or participation in stress tests, capital raises, or ordinary supervision will not on their own qualify.
If a bank experiences distress but is acquired privately without public intervention or coordination, this will not qualify.Recent Federal Reserve stress tests underscore the resilience of the largest U.S. banks, with all 32 participants maintaining common equity Tier 1 ratios above minimums despite absorbing $708 billion in hypothetical losses under a severe recession scenario featuring 10% unemployment and sharp declines in real estate and equity prices. Aggregate capital fell just 1.6 percentage points to 11.2%, the smallest decline in years, reflecting solid starting buffers, diversified portfolios, and higher interest income that offset credit losses. Only smaller community banks have failed in 2026 amid firm-specific issues, while industry quarterly net income reached $90.1 billion in Q2. This evidence of capital strength and regulatory oversight drives the 93% market-implied probability against a major bailout before 2027. A deeper-than-expected downturn or concentrated commercial real estate shock could still test these buffers.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a U.S. bank with total assets exceeding $50 billion as of November 11, 2025 (see:https://www.federalreserve.gov/releases/lbr/current/), is bailed out by the U.S. federal government by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise this market will resolve to “No”.
A bailout is defined as any of these actions in direct response to directly related to solvency, liquidity, or capital adequacy concerns.
-Establishing a Federal Reserve emergency lending facility
-Creating an FDIC-assisted resolution or bridge bank
-A U.S. Treasury capital injection
-A publicly disclosed, regulatory-facilitated acquisition
An official announcement from the U.S. government that they are taking any of these actions will qualify regardless of if/when the action occurs.
Routine access to standing facilities (such as the discount window or BTFP) or participation in stress tests, capital raises, or ordinary supervision will not on their own qualify.
If a bank experiences distress but is acquired privately without public intervention or coordination, this will not qualify.
A bailout is defined as any of these actions in direct response to directly related to solvency, liquidity, or capital adequacy concerns.
-Establishing a Federal Reserve emergency lending facility
-Creating an FDIC-assisted resolution or bridge bank
-A U.S. Treasury capital injection
-A publicly disclosed, regulatory-facilitated acquisition
An official announcement from the U.S. government that they are taking any of these actions will qualify regardless of if/when the action occurs.
Routine access to standing facilities (such as the discount window or BTFP) or participation in stress tests, capital raises, or ordinary supervision will not on their own qualify.
If a bank experiences distress but is acquired privately without public intervention or coordination, this will not qualify.
Market Opened: Nov 12, 2025, 6:22 PM ET
Volume
$4,183End Date
Jan 1, 2027Market Opened
Nov 12, 2025, 6:22 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if a U.S. bank with total assets exceeding $50 billion as of November 11, 2025 (see:https://www.federalreserve.gov/releases/lbr/current/), is bailed out by the U.S. federal government by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise this market will resolve to “No”.
A bailout is defined as any of these actions in direct response to directly related to solvency, liquidity, or capital adequacy concerns.
-Establishing a Federal Reserve emergency lending facility
-Creating an FDIC-assisted resolution or bridge bank
-A U.S. Treasury capital injection
-A publicly disclosed, regulatory-facilitated acquisition
An official announcement from the U.S. government that they are taking any of these actions will qualify regardless of if/when the action occurs.
Routine access to standing facilities (such as the discount window or BTFP) or participation in stress tests, capital raises, or ordinary supervision will not on their own qualify.
If a bank experiences distress but is acquired privately without public intervention or coordination, this will not qualify.Recent Federal Reserve stress tests underscore the resilience of the largest U.S. banks, with all 32 participants maintaining common equity Tier 1 ratios above minimums despite absorbing $708 billion in hypothetical losses under a severe recession scenario featuring 10% unemployment and sharp declines in real estate and equity prices. Aggregate capital fell just 1.6 percentage points to 11.2%, the smallest decline in years, reflecting solid starting buffers, diversified portfolios, and higher interest income that offset credit losses. Only smaller community banks have failed in 2026 amid firm-specific issues, while industry quarterly net income reached $90.1 billion in Q2. This evidence of capital strength and regulatory oversight drives the 93% market-implied probability against a major bailout before 2027. A deeper-than-expected downturn or concentrated commercial real estate shock could still test these buffers.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a U.S. bank with total assets exceeding $50 billion as of November 11, 2025 (see:https://www.federalreserve.gov/releases/lbr/current/), is bailed out by the U.S. federal government by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise this market will resolve to “No”.
A bailout is defined as any of these actions in direct response to directly related to solvency, liquidity, or capital adequacy concerns.
-Establishing a Federal Reserve emergency lending facility
-Creating an FDIC-assisted resolution or bridge bank
-A U.S. Treasury capital injection
-A publicly disclosed, regulatory-facilitated acquisition
An official announcement from the U.S. government that they are taking any of these actions will qualify regardless of if/when the action occurs.
Routine access to standing facilities (such as the discount window or BTFP) or participation in stress tests, capital raises, or ordinary supervision will not on their own qualify.
If a bank experiences distress but is acquired privately without public intervention or coordination, this will not qualify.
A bailout is defined as any of these actions in direct response to directly related to solvency, liquidity, or capital adequacy concerns.
-Establishing a Federal Reserve emergency lending facility
-Creating an FDIC-assisted resolution or bridge bank
-A U.S. Treasury capital injection
-A publicly disclosed, regulatory-facilitated acquisition
An official announcement from the U.S. government that they are taking any of these actions will qualify regardless of if/when the action occurs.
Routine access to standing facilities (such as the discount window or BTFP) or participation in stress tests, capital raises, or ordinary supervision will not on their own qualify.
If a bank experiences distress but is acquired privately without public intervention or coordination, this will not qualify.
Volume
$4,183End Date
Jan 1, 2027Market Opened
Nov 12, 2025, 6:22 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Recent Federal Reserve stress tests underscore the resilience of the largest U.S. banks, with all 32 participants maintaining common equity Tier 1 ratios above minimums despite absorbing $708 billion in hypothetical losses under a severe recession scenario featuring 10% unemployment and sharp declines in real estate and equity prices. Aggregate capital fell just 1.6 percentage points to 11.2%, the smallest decline in years, reflecting solid starting buffers, diversified portfolios, and higher interest income that offset credit losses. Only smaller community banks have failed in 2026 amid firm-specific issues, while industry quarterly net income reached $90.1 billion in Q2. This evidence of capital strength and regulatory oversight drives the 93% market-implied probability against a major bailout before 2027. A deeper-than-expected downturn or concentrated commercial real estate shock could still test these buffers.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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