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Economy·Banks

US bank failure by December 31, 2026?

icon for US bank failure by December 31, 2026?
Economy·Banks

US bank failure by December 31, 2026?

Jan 1, 2027

Jan 1, 2027

49% chance
Polymarket
NEW
49% chance
Polymarket
NEW
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any US bank fails between this market's creation and the listed date, 11:59 PM ET (according to the FDIC's "Failed Bank List"). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For this market to resolve to "Yes", the bank's closing date as listed by the FDIC must be within this market's above-specified timeframe. If there is a potential bank failure within this market's timeframe and the FDIC "Failed Bank List" has not been updated yet, this market may remain open to allow for the list to be updated. The primary resolution source for this market will be the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation (FDIC), specifically the "Failed Bank List" available here: https://www.fdic.gov/resources/resolutions/bank-failures/failed-bank-list/; however, other official statements from the FDIC and government entities will suffice.Persistent vulnerabilities in smaller and regional US banks, including elevated commercial real estate exposures and squeezed net interest margins from competitive deposit costs, underpin the 64% market-implied probability of at least one failure by December 31, 2026. Four small institutions have already failed this year amid these pressures, while June 2026 Federal Reserve stress tests confirmed large banks' resilience with an aggregate CET1 ratio declining just 1.6 percentage points under severe scenarios. Traders price in continued liquidity and credit risks for non-systemic lenders despite expected earnings growth, with key near-term catalysts including upcoming economic data releases and any shifts in monetary policy that could alter funding conditions or asset quality.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if any US bank fails between this market's creation and the listed date, 11:59 PM ET (according to the FDIC's "Failed Bank List"). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

For this market to resolve to "Yes", the bank's closing date as listed by the FDIC must be within this market's above-specified timeframe. If there is a potential bank failure within this market's timeframe and the FDIC "Failed Bank List" has not been updated yet, this market may remain open to allow for the list to be updated.

The primary resolution source for this market will be the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation (FDIC), specifically the "Failed Bank List" available here: https://www.fdic.gov/resources/resolutions/bank-failures/failed-bank-list/; however, other official statements from the FDIC and government entities will suffice.This market will resolve to "Yes" if any US bank fails between this market's creation and the listed date, 11:59 PM ET (according to the FDIC's "Failed Bank List"). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For this market to resolve to "Yes", the bank's closing date as listed by the FDIC must be within this market's above-specified timeframe. If there is a potential bank failure within this market's timeframe and the FDIC "Failed Bank List" has not been updated yet, this market may remain open to allow for the list to be updated. The primary resolution source for this market will be the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation (FDIC), specifically the "Failed Bank List" available here: https://www.fdic.gov/resources/resolutions/bank-failures/failed-bank-list/; however, other official statements from the FDIC and government entities will suffice.
Volume
$2,228
End Date
Jan 1, 2027
Market Opened
Aug 24, 2026, 7:12 PM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any US bank fails between this market's creation and the listed date, 11:59 PM ET (according to the FDIC's "Failed Bank List"). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For this market to resolve to "Yes", the bank's closing date as listed by the FDIC must be within this market's above-specified timeframe. If there is a potential bank failure within this market's timeframe and the FDIC "Failed Bank List" has not been updated yet, this market may remain open to allow for the list to be updated. The primary resolution source for this market will be the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation (FDIC), specifically the "Failed Bank List" available here: https://www.fdic.gov/resources/resolutions/bank-failures/failed-bank-list/; however, other official statements from the FDIC and government entities will suffice.Persistent vulnerabilities in smaller and regional US banks, including elevated commercial real estate exposures and squeezed net interest margins from competitive deposit costs, underpin the 64% market-implied probability of at least one failure by December 31, 2026. Four small institutions have already failed this year amid these pressures, while June 2026 Federal Reserve stress tests confirmed large banks' resilience with an aggregate CET1 ratio declining just 1.6 percentage points under severe scenarios. Traders price in continued liquidity and credit risks for non-systemic lenders despite expected earnings growth, with key near-term catalysts including upcoming economic data releases and any shifts in monetary policy that could alter funding conditions or asset quality.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if any US bank fails between this market's creation and the listed date, 11:59 PM ET (according to the FDIC's "Failed Bank List"). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

For this market to resolve to "Yes", the bank's closing date as listed by the FDIC must be within this market's above-specified timeframe. If there is a potential bank failure within this market's timeframe and the FDIC "Failed Bank List" has not been updated yet, this market may remain open to allow for the list to be updated.

The primary resolution source for this market will be the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation (FDIC), specifically the "Failed Bank List" available here: https://www.fdic.gov/resources/resolutions/bank-failures/failed-bank-list/; however, other official statements from the FDIC and government entities will suffice.This market will resolve to "Yes" if any US bank fails between this market's creation and the listed date, 11:59 PM ET (according to the FDIC's "Failed Bank List"). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For this market to resolve to "Yes", the bank's closing date as listed by the FDIC must be within this market's above-specified timeframe. If there is a potential bank failure within this market's timeframe and the FDIC "Failed Bank List" has not been updated yet, this market may remain open to allow for the list to be updated. The primary resolution source for this market will be the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation (FDIC), specifically the "Failed Bank List" available here: https://www.fdic.gov/resources/resolutions/bank-failures/failed-bank-list/; however, other official statements from the FDIC and government entities will suffice.
Volume
$2,228
End Date
Jan 1, 2027
Market Opened
Aug 24, 2026, 7:12 PM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...

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Frequently Asked Questions

"US bank failure by December 31, 2026?" is a prediction market on Polymarket where traders buy and sell "Yes" or "No" shares based on whether they believe this event will happen. The current crowd-sourced probability is 66% for "Yes." For example, if "Yes" is priced at 66¢, the market collectively assigns a 66% chance that this event will occur. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

"US bank failure by December 31, 2026?" is a newly created market on Polymarket, launched on Aug 24, 2026. As an early market, this is your opportunity to be among the first traders to set the odds and establish the market's initial price signals. You can also bookmark this page to track volume and trading activity as the market gains traction over time.

To trade on "US bank failure by December 31, 2026?," simply choose whether you believe the answer is "Yes" or "No." Each side has a current price that reflects the market's implied probability. Enter your amount and click "Trade." If you buy "Yes" shares and the outcome resolves as "Yes," each share pays out $1. If it resolves as "No," your "Yes" shares pay $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current probability for "US bank failure by December 31, 2026?" is 66% for "Yes." This means the Polymarket crowd currently believes there is a 66% chance that this event will occur. These odds update in real-time based on actual trades, providing a continuously updated signal of what the market expects to happen.

The resolution rules for "US bank failure by December 31, 2026?" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.