Persistent heavy rain and thunderstorms forecast for Tokyo on September 7, driven by a low-pressure system and southerly flow, are limiting nighttime radiative cooling and supporting minimum temperatures clustered around 22–24°C. High humidity above 90% and extensive cloud cover further suppress drops below typical early-September climatological lows near 22°C, aligning with the market's leading 23°C outcome at 41.5% implied probability. Official guidance from agencies like the Japan Meteorological Agency shows model consensus on overnight readings in this range, with limited variability expected before resolution. Traders appear to weigh these stable, moisture-laden conditions against minor potential for brief clearing that could allow a dip toward 21°C.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedLowest temperature in Tokyo on September 7?
Lowest temperature in Tokyo on September 7?
23°C 36%
24°C 23%
22°C 22%
21°C 13%
NEW
NEW
Sep 7, 2026
19°C or below
3%
20°C
12%
21°C
13%
22°C
22%
23°C
36%
24°C
23%
25°C
1%
26°C
<1%
27°C
<1%
28°C
<1%
29°C or higher
<1%
23°C 36%
24°C 23%
22°C 22%
21°C 13%
NEW
NEW
Sep 7, 2026
19°C or below
$283 Vol.
3%
20°C
$382 Vol.
12%
21°C
$711 Vol.
13%
22°C
$574 Vol.
22%
23°C
$768 Vol.
36%
24°C
$404 Vol.
23%
25°C
$26 Vol.
1%
26°C
$0 Vol.
<1%
27°C
$0 Vol.
<1%
28°C
$129 Vol.
<1%
29°C or higher
$129 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 7 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rjtt
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Persistent heavy rain and thunderstorms forecast for Tokyo on September 7, driven by a low-pressure system and southerly flow, are limiting nighttime radiative cooling and supporting minimum temperatures clustered around 22–24°C. High humidity above 90% and extensive cloud cover further suppress drops below typical early-September climatological lows near 22°C, aligning with the market's leading 23°C outcome at 41.5% implied probability. Official guidance from agencies like the Japan Meteorological Agency shows model consensus on overnight readings in this range, with limited variability expected before resolution. Traders appear to weigh these stable, moisture-laden conditions against minor potential for brief clearing that could allow a dip toward 21°C.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 7 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rjtt
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rjtt
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Sep 5, 2026, 12:29 AM ET
Volume
$3,406End Date
Sep 7, 2026Market Opened
Sep 5, 2026, 12:29 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rjttResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 7 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rjtt
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Persistent heavy rain and thunderstorms forecast for Tokyo on September 7, driven by a low-pressure system and southerly flow, are limiting nighttime radiative cooling and supporting minimum temperatures clustered around 22–24°C. High humidity above 90% and extensive cloud cover further suppress drops below typical early-September climatological lows near 22°C, aligning with the market's leading 23°C outcome at 41.5% implied probability. Official guidance from agencies like the Japan Meteorological Agency shows model consensus on overnight readings in this range, with limited variability expected before resolution. Traders appear to weigh these stable, moisture-laden conditions against minor potential for brief clearing that could allow a dip toward 21°C.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 7 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rjtt
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rjtt
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$3,406End Date
Sep 7, 2026Market Opened
Sep 5, 2026, 12:29 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rjttResolver
0x69c47De9D...Persistent heavy rain and thunderstorms forecast for Tokyo on September 7, driven by a low-pressure system and southerly flow, are limiting nighttime radiative cooling and supporting minimum temperatures clustered around 22–24°C. High humidity above 90% and extensive cloud cover further suppress drops below typical early-September climatological lows near 22°C, aligning with the market's leading 23°C outcome at 41.5% implied probability. Official guidance from agencies like the Japan Meteorological Agency shows model consensus on overnight readings in this range, with limited variability expected before resolution. Traders appear to weigh these stable, moisture-laden conditions against minor potential for brief clearing that could allow a dip toward 21°C.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
Beware of external links.
Beware of external links.
Frequently Asked Questions