GitHub’s recent reliability struggles, driven by surging AI-driven traffic from tools like Copilot and repeated infrastructure scaling failures, position 6-12 hour incidents as the leading outcome at 46.5% implied probability. Early September has seen only brief disruptions, including a roughly two-hour Copilot Code Review issue and a three-hour Grok model provider incident on September 3-4, alongside shorter commit and API degradations. These align with the 3-6 hour band at 33.5% but contrast with longer outages in July and August, such as the nearly eight-hour August 17 event tied to load balancer saturation and retry storms. Traders appear to factor in GitHub’s documented mean-time-to-recovery trends and ongoing capacity pressures when pricing the chance of a more extended critical incident later in the month.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated6-12 hours 47%
3-6 hours 33%
1-3 hours 15%
12+ hours 8%
NEW
NEW
Sep 30, 2026
<1 hour
3%
1-3 hours
15%
3-6 hours
33%
6-12 hours
47%
12+ hours
8%
6-12 hours 47%
3-6 hours 33%
1-3 hours 15%
12+ hours 8%
NEW
NEW
Sep 30, 2026
<1 hour
$1,146 Vol.
3%
1-3 hours
$1,340 Vol.
15%
3-6 hours
$1,468 Vol.
33%
6-12 hours
$2,458 Vol.
47%
12+ hours
$3,569 Vol.
8%
This market will resolve according to the duration of the longest qualifying incident that begins between September 1, 2026, 12:00 AM ET and September 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. If no qualifying incident begins during this period, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket (“<1 hour”).
If no qualifying incident begins during this period, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket (“<1 hour”).
An incident will qualify if the official GitHub Status Page (githubstatus.com) or the official GitHub Status API (githubstatus.com/api) classifies the incident's impact as "critical," unless its affected components, once the incident is marked "Resolved," consist solely of Copilot and/or Copilot AI Model Providers. Incidents listing no affected components will qualify. GitHub classifies incident impact as None, Minor, Major, or Critical; only Critical will qualify. Component status labels (e.g. "Degraded Performance," "Partial Outage," or "Major Outage") will have no bearing on this market absent a qualifying critical incident.
Revisions published after an incident is marked “Resolved” will not be considered.
An incident's duration is the time between its official start timestamp and the time the incident is marked “Resolved,” as published by the GitHub Status Page or the GitHub Status API. An incident will be attributed to the month in which it begins, based on its official start timestamp converted to Eastern Time (ET); an incident that begins during the period and is resolved after the period ends will count in full.
If the determined value falls exactly on the boundary between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher bracket.
If an incident that began during the period remains unresolved at the end of the period, this market will remain open and resolve at the earlier of: (i) when the incident is officially resolved, or (ii) the end of the seventh calendar day (ET) after the end of the period, at which point the market will resolve based on the official information available at that time, with any unresolved incident's duration measured from its official start timestamp to that time.
Incidents whose affected components, once the incident is marked "Resolved," consist solely of Copilot and/or Copilot AI Model Providers will not qualify. Scheduled maintenance will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official GitHub system-status information published at https://www.githubstatus.com/, including the official GitHub Status API (https://www.githubstatus.com/api); however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.GitHub’s recent reliability struggles, driven by surging AI-driven traffic from tools like Copilot and repeated infrastructure scaling failures, position 6-12 hour incidents as the leading outcome at 46.5% implied probability. Early September has seen only brief disruptions, including a roughly two-hour Copilot Code Review issue and a three-hour Grok model provider incident on September 3-4, alongside shorter commit and API degradations. These align with the 3-6 hour band at 33.5% but contrast with longer outages in July and August, such as the nearly eight-hour August 17 event tied to load balancer saturation and retry storms. Traders appear to factor in GitHub’s documented mean-time-to-recovery trends and ongoing capacity pressures when pricing the chance of a more extended critical incident later in the month.
This market will resolve according to the duration of the longest qualifying incident that begins between September 1, 2026, 12:00 AM ET and September 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. If no qualifying incident begins during this period, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket (“<1 hour”).
If no qualifying incident begins during this period, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket (“<1 hour”).
An incident will qualify if the official GitHub Status Page (githubstatus.com) or the official GitHub Status API (githubstatus.com/api) classifies the incident's impact as "critical," unless its affected components, once the incident is marked "Resolved," consist solely of Copilot and/or Copilot AI Model Providers. Incidents listing no affected components will qualify. GitHub classifies incident impact as None, Minor, Major, or Critical; only Critical will qualify. Component status labels (e.g. "Degraded Performance," "Partial Outage," or "Major Outage") will have no bearing on this market absent a qualifying critical incident.
Revisions published after an incident is marked “Resolved” will not be considered.
An incident's duration is the time between its official start timestamp and the time the incident is marked “Resolved,” as published by the GitHub Status Page or the GitHub Status API. An incident will be attributed to the month in which it begins, based on its official start timestamp converted to Eastern Time (ET); an incident that begins during the period and is resolved after the period ends will count in full.
If the determined value falls exactly on the boundary between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher bracket.
If an incident that began during the period remains unresolved at the end of the period, this market will remain open and resolve at the earlier of: (i) when the incident is officially resolved, or (ii) the end of the seventh calendar day (ET) after the end of the period, at which point the market will resolve based on the official information available at that time, with any unresolved incident's duration measured from its official start timestamp to that time.
Incidents whose affected components, once the incident is marked "Resolved," consist solely of Copilot and/or Copilot AI Model Providers will not qualify. Scheduled maintenance will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official GitHub system-status information published at https://www.githubstatus.com/, including the official GitHub Status API (https://www.githubstatus.com/api); however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
If no qualifying incident begins during this period, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket (“<1 hour”).
An incident will qualify if the official GitHub Status Page (githubstatus.com) or the official GitHub Status API (githubstatus.com/api) classifies the incident's impact as "critical," unless its affected components, once the incident is marked "Resolved," consist solely of Copilot and/or Copilot AI Model Providers. Incidents listing no affected components will qualify. GitHub classifies incident impact as None, Minor, Major, or Critical; only Critical will qualify. Component status labels (e.g. "Degraded Performance," "Partial Outage," or "Major Outage") will have no bearing on this market absent a qualifying critical incident.
Revisions published after an incident is marked “Resolved” will not be considered.
An incident's duration is the time between its official start timestamp and the time the incident is marked “Resolved,” as published by the GitHub Status Page or the GitHub Status API. An incident will be attributed to the month in which it begins, based on its official start timestamp converted to Eastern Time (ET); an incident that begins during the period and is resolved after the period ends will count in full.
If the determined value falls exactly on the boundary between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher bracket.
If an incident that began during the period remains unresolved at the end of the period, this market will remain open and resolve at the earlier of: (i) when the incident is officially resolved, or (ii) the end of the seventh calendar day (ET) after the end of the period, at which point the market will resolve based on the official information available at that time, with any unresolved incident's duration measured from its official start timestamp to that time.
Incidents whose affected components, once the incident is marked "Resolved," consist solely of Copilot and/or Copilot AI Model Providers will not qualify. Scheduled maintenance will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official GitHub system-status information published at https://www.githubstatus.com/, including the official GitHub Status API (https://www.githubstatus.com/api); however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Market Opened: Aug 19, 2026, 8:45 PM ET
Volume
$9,980End Date
Oct 1, 2026Market Opened
Aug 19, 2026, 8:45 PM ETResolution Source
https://www.githubstatus.com/Resolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the duration of the longest qualifying incident that begins between September 1, 2026, 12:00 AM ET and September 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. If no qualifying incident begins during this period, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket (“<1 hour”).
If no qualifying incident begins during this period, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket (“<1 hour”).
An incident will qualify if the official GitHub Status Page (githubstatus.com) or the official GitHub Status API (githubstatus.com/api) classifies the incident's impact as "critical," unless its affected components, once the incident is marked "Resolved," consist solely of Copilot and/or Copilot AI Model Providers. Incidents listing no affected components will qualify. GitHub classifies incident impact as None, Minor, Major, or Critical; only Critical will qualify. Component status labels (e.g. "Degraded Performance," "Partial Outage," or "Major Outage") will have no bearing on this market absent a qualifying critical incident.
Revisions published after an incident is marked “Resolved” will not be considered.
An incident's duration is the time between its official start timestamp and the time the incident is marked “Resolved,” as published by the GitHub Status Page or the GitHub Status API. An incident will be attributed to the month in which it begins, based on its official start timestamp converted to Eastern Time (ET); an incident that begins during the period and is resolved after the period ends will count in full.
If the determined value falls exactly on the boundary between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher bracket.
If an incident that began during the period remains unresolved at the end of the period, this market will remain open and resolve at the earlier of: (i) when the incident is officially resolved, or (ii) the end of the seventh calendar day (ET) after the end of the period, at which point the market will resolve based on the official information available at that time, with any unresolved incident's duration measured from its official start timestamp to that time.
Incidents whose affected components, once the incident is marked "Resolved," consist solely of Copilot and/or Copilot AI Model Providers will not qualify. Scheduled maintenance will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official GitHub system-status information published at https://www.githubstatus.com/, including the official GitHub Status API (https://www.githubstatus.com/api); however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.GitHub’s recent reliability struggles, driven by surging AI-driven traffic from tools like Copilot and repeated infrastructure scaling failures, position 6-12 hour incidents as the leading outcome at 46.5% implied probability. Early September has seen only brief disruptions, including a roughly two-hour Copilot Code Review issue and a three-hour Grok model provider incident on September 3-4, alongside shorter commit and API degradations. These align with the 3-6 hour band at 33.5% but contrast with longer outages in July and August, such as the nearly eight-hour August 17 event tied to load balancer saturation and retry storms. Traders appear to factor in GitHub’s documented mean-time-to-recovery trends and ongoing capacity pressures when pricing the chance of a more extended critical incident later in the month.
This market will resolve according to the duration of the longest qualifying incident that begins between September 1, 2026, 12:00 AM ET and September 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. If no qualifying incident begins during this period, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket (“<1 hour”).
If no qualifying incident begins during this period, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket (“<1 hour”).
An incident will qualify if the official GitHub Status Page (githubstatus.com) or the official GitHub Status API (githubstatus.com/api) classifies the incident's impact as "critical," unless its affected components, once the incident is marked "Resolved," consist solely of Copilot and/or Copilot AI Model Providers. Incidents listing no affected components will qualify. GitHub classifies incident impact as None, Minor, Major, or Critical; only Critical will qualify. Component status labels (e.g. "Degraded Performance," "Partial Outage," or "Major Outage") will have no bearing on this market absent a qualifying critical incident.
Revisions published after an incident is marked “Resolved” will not be considered.
An incident's duration is the time between its official start timestamp and the time the incident is marked “Resolved,” as published by the GitHub Status Page or the GitHub Status API. An incident will be attributed to the month in which it begins, based on its official start timestamp converted to Eastern Time (ET); an incident that begins during the period and is resolved after the period ends will count in full.
If the determined value falls exactly on the boundary between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher bracket.
If an incident that began during the period remains unresolved at the end of the period, this market will remain open and resolve at the earlier of: (i) when the incident is officially resolved, or (ii) the end of the seventh calendar day (ET) after the end of the period, at which point the market will resolve based on the official information available at that time, with any unresolved incident's duration measured from its official start timestamp to that time.
Incidents whose affected components, once the incident is marked "Resolved," consist solely of Copilot and/or Copilot AI Model Providers will not qualify. Scheduled maintenance will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official GitHub system-status information published at https://www.githubstatus.com/, including the official GitHub Status API (https://www.githubstatus.com/api); however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
If no qualifying incident begins during this period, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket (“<1 hour”).
An incident will qualify if the official GitHub Status Page (githubstatus.com) or the official GitHub Status API (githubstatus.com/api) classifies the incident's impact as "critical," unless its affected components, once the incident is marked "Resolved," consist solely of Copilot and/or Copilot AI Model Providers. Incidents listing no affected components will qualify. GitHub classifies incident impact as None, Minor, Major, or Critical; only Critical will qualify. Component status labels (e.g. "Degraded Performance," "Partial Outage," or "Major Outage") will have no bearing on this market absent a qualifying critical incident.
Revisions published after an incident is marked “Resolved” will not be considered.
An incident's duration is the time between its official start timestamp and the time the incident is marked “Resolved,” as published by the GitHub Status Page or the GitHub Status API. An incident will be attributed to the month in which it begins, based on its official start timestamp converted to Eastern Time (ET); an incident that begins during the period and is resolved after the period ends will count in full.
If the determined value falls exactly on the boundary between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher bracket.
If an incident that began during the period remains unresolved at the end of the period, this market will remain open and resolve at the earlier of: (i) when the incident is officially resolved, or (ii) the end of the seventh calendar day (ET) after the end of the period, at which point the market will resolve based on the official information available at that time, with any unresolved incident's duration measured from its official start timestamp to that time.
Incidents whose affected components, once the incident is marked "Resolved," consist solely of Copilot and/or Copilot AI Model Providers will not qualify. Scheduled maintenance will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official GitHub system-status information published at https://www.githubstatus.com/, including the official GitHub Status API (https://www.githubstatus.com/api); however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volume
$9,980End Date
Oct 1, 2026Market Opened
Aug 19, 2026, 8:45 PM ETResolution Source
https://www.githubstatus.com/Resolver
0x69c47De9D...GitHub’s recent reliability struggles, driven by surging AI-driven traffic from tools like Copilot and repeated infrastructure scaling failures, position 6-12 hour incidents as the leading outcome at 46.5% implied probability. Early September has seen only brief disruptions, including a roughly two-hour Copilot Code Review issue and a three-hour Grok model provider incident on September 3-4, alongside shorter commit and API degradations. These align with the 3-6 hour band at 33.5% but contrast with longer outages in July and August, such as the nearly eight-hour August 17 event tied to load balancer saturation and retry storms. Traders appear to factor in GitHub’s documented mean-time-to-recovery trends and ongoing capacity pressures when pricing the chance of a more extended critical incident later in the month.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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