**Marine Le Pen faces an upheld embezzlement conviction from a July 2026 Paris appeals court ruling in the European Parliament assistants case, with a reduced 45-month ineligibility period (15 months effective, already served) and a three-year prison term (two suspended, one to be served under electronic monitoring).** She immediately appealed to the Court of Cassation, which under French procedure suspends execution of the sentence—including any ankle monitor requirement—pending a final decision expected by early April 2027, before the presidential election's first round on April 18. Le Pen publicly declared her candidacy for 2027 on the same day, stating the suspension allows her to campaign without restrictions. A specialized sentence-enforcement judge would still determine exact monitoring conditions (residence, permitted hours, potential reductions up to six months) if the conviction stands, but the appeal timeline and legal mechanisms create substantial room for adjustment or deferral. Traders assign an 83% probability to "No" because the ongoing cassation process and procedural safeguards make imposition of the monitor before the election unlikely in the current trajectory, though a final adverse ruling close to the vote remains a residual risk. No major new legal or political developments have altered this positioning since the July ruling.