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icon for Israel Election: Otzma # of seats?
Elections·Middle East

Israel Election: Otzma # of seats?

icon for Israel Election: Otzma # of seats?
Elections·Middle East

Israel Election: Otzma # of seats?

8-9 35%

6-7 31%

4-5 18%

10+ 16%

Polymarket
NEW

8-9 35%

6-7 31%

4-5 18%

10+ 16%

Polymarket
NEW

<4

$358 Vol.

5%

4-5

$0 Vol.

18%

6-7

$37 Vol.

36%

8-9

$0 Vol.

35%

10+

$0 Vol.

16%

Legislative elections are expected to be held in Israel on October 27, 2026. This market will resolve according to the number of seats won by Otzma Yehudit in the Israeli Knesset as a result of this election. If Otzma Yehudit contests this election as part of a joint candidate list with one or more parties, all seats won by the joint candidate list will be counted. If Otzma Yehudit merges with another party prior to the election, all seats won by the resultant merged party, or any joint candidate list through which it contests the election, will be counted. If the results of this election are not definitively known by October 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket. This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by Otzma Yehudit in this election. This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by Israel’s Central Election Committee (Va'adet HaBehirot HaMerkazit) (https://www.gov.il/en/departments/central-elections-committee/govil-landing-page).Recent polling averages place Otzma Yehudit in the 6–10 seat range ahead of the October 27 Knesset election, with most surveys from June through early September showing 7–9 seats as the typical outcome. The party, led by Itamar Ben-Gvir, draws support primarily from Likud and Shas voters dissatisfied with the larger lists, while facing competition from Religious Zionism and smaller nationalist parties near the 3.25% threshold. Trader consensus around 6–9 seats reflects this narrow band of survey results, ongoing uncertainty over final candidate lists due by September 8, and the impact of broader right-wing fragmentation on Otzma’s share. Developments such as shifts in ultra-Orthodox turnout or late alliances could still alter the final tally within the resolution window.

Legislative elections are expected to be held in Israel on October 27, 2026.

This market will resolve according to the number of seats won by Otzma Yehudit in the Israeli Knesset as a result of this election.

If Otzma Yehudit contests this election as part of a joint candidate list with one or more parties, all seats won by the joint candidate list will be counted. If Otzma Yehudit merges with another party prior to the election, all seats won by the resultant merged party, or any joint candidate list through which it contests the election, will be counted.

If the results of this election are not definitively known by October 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.

This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by Otzma Yehudit in this election.

This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by Israel’s Central Election Committee (Va'adet HaBehirot HaMerkazit) (https://www.gov.il/en/departments/central-elections-committee/govil-landing-page).Legislative elections are expected to be held in Israel on October 27, 2026. This market will resolve according to the number of seats won by Otzma Yehudit in the Israeli Knesset as a result of this election. If Otzma Yehudit contests this election as part of a joint candidate list with one or more parties, all seats won by the joint candidate list will be counted. If Otzma Yehudit merges with another party prior to the election, all seats won by the resultant merged party, or any joint candidate list through which it contests the election, will be counted. If the results of this election are not definitively known by October 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket. This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by Otzma Yehudit in this election. This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by Israel’s Central Election Committee (Va'adet HaBehirot HaMerkazit) (https://www.gov.il/en/departments/central-elections-committee/govil-landing-page).
Volume
$395
End Date
Oct 27, 2026
Market Opened
Sep 4, 2026, 6:15 PM ET

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...
Legislative elections are expected to be held in Israel on October 27, 2026. This market will resolve according to the number of seats won by Otzma Yehudit in the Israeli Knesset as a result of this election. If Otzma Yehudit contests this election as part of a joint candidate list with one or more parties, all seats won by the joint candidate list will be counted. If Otzma Yehudit merges with another party prior to the election, all seats won by the resultant merged party, or any joint candidate list through which it contests the election, will be counted. If the results of this election are not definitively known by October 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket. This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by Otzma Yehudit in this election. This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by Israel’s Central Election Committee (Va'adet HaBehirot HaMerkazit) (https://www.gov.il/en/departments/central-elections-committee/govil-landing-page).Recent polling averages place Otzma Yehudit in the 6–10 seat range ahead of the October 27 Knesset election, with most surveys from June through early September showing 7–9 seats as the typical outcome. The party, led by Itamar Ben-Gvir, draws support primarily from Likud and Shas voters dissatisfied with the larger lists, while facing competition from Religious Zionism and smaller nationalist parties near the 3.25% threshold. Trader consensus around 6–9 seats reflects this narrow band of survey results, ongoing uncertainty over final candidate lists due by September 8, and the impact of broader right-wing fragmentation on Otzma’s share. Developments such as shifts in ultra-Orthodox turnout or late alliances could still alter the final tally within the resolution window.

Legislative elections are expected to be held in Israel on October 27, 2026.

This market will resolve according to the number of seats won by Otzma Yehudit in the Israeli Knesset as a result of this election.

If Otzma Yehudit contests this election as part of a joint candidate list with one or more parties, all seats won by the joint candidate list will be counted. If Otzma Yehudit merges with another party prior to the election, all seats won by the resultant merged party, or any joint candidate list through which it contests the election, will be counted.

If the results of this election are not definitively known by October 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.

This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by Otzma Yehudit in this election.

This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by Israel’s Central Election Committee (Va'adet HaBehirot HaMerkazit) (https://www.gov.il/en/departments/central-elections-committee/govil-landing-page).Legislative elections are expected to be held in Israel on October 27, 2026. This market will resolve according to the number of seats won by Otzma Yehudit in the Israeli Knesset as a result of this election. If Otzma Yehudit contests this election as part of a joint candidate list with one or more parties, all seats won by the joint candidate list will be counted. If Otzma Yehudit merges with another party prior to the election, all seats won by the resultant merged party, or any joint candidate list through which it contests the election, will be counted. If the results of this election are not definitively known by October 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket. This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by Otzma Yehudit in this election. This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by Israel’s Central Election Committee (Va'adet HaBehirot HaMerkazit) (https://www.gov.il/en/departments/central-elections-committee/govil-landing-page).
Volume
$395
End Date
Oct 27, 2026
Market Opened
Sep 4, 2026, 6:15 PM ET

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...

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Frequently Asked Questions

"Israel Election: Otzma # of seats?" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 5 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "6-7" at 36%, followed by "8-9" at 35%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 36¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 36% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

"Israel Election: Otzma # of seats?" is a newly created market on Polymarket, launched on Sep 4, 2026. As an early market, this is your opportunity to be among the first traders to set the odds and establish the market's initial price signals. You can also bookmark this page to track volume and trading activity as the market gains traction over time.

To trade on "Israel Election: Otzma # of seats?," browse the 5 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "Israel Election: Otzma # of seats?" is "6-7" at 36%, meaning the market assigns a 36% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "8-9" at 35%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "Israel Election: Otzma # of seats?" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.