**Recent polling in key South Texas districts and the effects of the 2025 mid-decade redistricting continue to shape trader views on Democratic U.S. House performance in Texas.** Republicans drew the new map to target five Democratic-held seats and create a projected net gain of three to five seats for the GOP, shifting several districts toward Republican-leaning territory based on 2024 results. However, late-summer surveys, including those from Texas Southern University, show Democratic candidates leading or competitive in the most contested races—such as Henry Cuellar in the 28th, Vicente Gonzalez in the 34th, and Bobby Pulido challenging the incumbent in the 15th—suggesting the map’s intended shifts may be narrower than planned. Texas’s 38 districts feature limited true battlegrounds after the redraw, with most seats rated safe for one party and notable turnover from retirements and primaries. The national midterm environment, where the president’s party has historically lost seats, adds further uncertainty. Traders see outcomes clustered around 10–13 Democratic seats because results hinge on whether Democrats hold their remaining competitive districts or suffer net losses of two to three, with limited upside from additional flips elsewhere. Any sustained polling movement in the Rio Grande Valley districts or shifts in turnout patterns could quickly widen the range of probable results.