Latest numerical weather prediction models, including GFS runs, indicate a maximum temperature near 28°C in Madrid on September 10 due to a transition to northeasterly flow advecting cooler, drier air masses after recent highs exceeding 34°C. Partly cloudy skies, light winds under 10 km/h, and minimal cloud cover support efficient daytime heating without excessive accumulation, aligning closely with September climatological baselines around 27–28°C. Market-implied odds, with 28°C at 50.5% and 27°C at 31.0%, reflect trader consensus on this narrow range amid low forecast uncertainty two days out. Official AEMET briefings and final ensemble updates expected overnight could refine resolution criteria for the daily high.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in Madrid on September 10?
Highest temperature in Madrid on September 10?
28°C 51%
27°C 31%
29°C 14%
26°C 4%
NEW
NEW
Sep 10, 2026
24°C or below
1%
25°C
3%
26°C
4%
27°C
31%
28°C
51%
29°C
14%
30°C
2%
31°C
2%
32°C
1%
33°C
1%
34°C or higher
<1%
28°C 51%
27°C 31%
29°C 14%
26°C 4%
NEW
NEW
Sep 10, 2026
24°C or below
$75 Vol.
1%
25°C
$15 Vol.
3%
26°C
$23 Vol.
4%
27°C
$287 Vol.
31%
28°C
$388 Vol.
51%
29°C
$306 Vol.
14%
30°C
$8 Vol.
2%
31°C
$5 Vol.
2%
32°C
$0 Vol.
1%
33°C
$38 Vol.
1%
34°C or higher
$368 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 10 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemd
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Latest numerical weather prediction models, including GFS runs, indicate a maximum temperature near 28°C in Madrid on September 10 due to a transition to northeasterly flow advecting cooler, drier air masses after recent highs exceeding 34°C. Partly cloudy skies, light winds under 10 km/h, and minimal cloud cover support efficient daytime heating without excessive accumulation, aligning closely with September climatological baselines around 27–28°C. Market-implied odds, with 28°C at 50.5% and 27°C at 31.0%, reflect trader consensus on this narrow range amid low forecast uncertainty two days out. Official AEMET briefings and final ensemble updates expected overnight could refine resolution criteria for the daily high.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 10 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemd
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemd
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Sep 8, 2026, 12:57 AM ET
Volume
$1,513End Date
Sep 10, 2026Market Opened
Sep 8, 2026, 12:57 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemdResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 10 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemd
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Latest numerical weather prediction models, including GFS runs, indicate a maximum temperature near 28°C in Madrid on September 10 due to a transition to northeasterly flow advecting cooler, drier air masses after recent highs exceeding 34°C. Partly cloudy skies, light winds under 10 km/h, and minimal cloud cover support efficient daytime heating without excessive accumulation, aligning closely with September climatological baselines around 27–28°C. Market-implied odds, with 28°C at 50.5% and 27°C at 31.0%, reflect trader consensus on this narrow range amid low forecast uncertainty two days out. Official AEMET briefings and final ensemble updates expected overnight could refine resolution criteria for the daily high.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 10 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemd
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemd
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$1,513End Date
Sep 10, 2026Market Opened
Sep 8, 2026, 12:57 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemdResolver
0x69c47De9D...Latest numerical weather prediction models, including GFS runs, indicate a maximum temperature near 28°C in Madrid on September 10 due to a transition to northeasterly flow advecting cooler, drier air masses after recent highs exceeding 34°C. Partly cloudy skies, light winds under 10 km/h, and minimal cloud cover support efficient daytime heating without excessive accumulation, aligning closely with September climatological baselines around 27–28°C. Market-implied odds, with 28°C at 50.5% and 27°C at 31.0%, reflect trader consensus on this narrow range amid low forecast uncertainty two days out. Official AEMET briefings and final ensemble updates expected overnight could refine resolution criteria for the daily high.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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