Anthropic’s Claude Fable 5.1 currently leads Humanity’s Last Exam leaderboards at 59–65% depending on evaluation conditions, reflecting strong gains in multi-domain reasoning and chain-of-thought performance on the 2,500-question expert benchmark. Recent Claude Opus 5 and Mythos 5 variants sit within one point, while OpenAI’s GPT-6 Astra and Meta’s Muse Spark 1.1 trail at 54–62% on comparable runs. The benchmark’s graduate-level questions across math, physics, and computer science continue to resist rapid saturation, rewarding incremental improvements in model scale, training data quality, and inference-time compute. Traders are watching Q4 2026 releases and any confirmed tool-use or agentic updates that could shift the frontier before year-end resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated$52,823 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
60%+
66%
65%+
32%
70%+
17%
75%+
10%
80%+
7%
90%+
4%
$52,823 Vol.
60%+
$28,525 Vol.
66%
65%+
$13,569 Vol.
32%
70%+
$5,265 Vol.
17%
75%+
$2,106 Vol.
10%
80%+
$1,151 Vol.
7%
90%+
$2,206 Vol.
4%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any model achieves at least the specified accuracy on Humanity’s Last Exam by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For resolution, “accuracy” refers solely to the value labeled “HLE Accuracy” or a clear equivalent metric if the data’s presentation or terminology is restructured, regardless of the model’s Calibration Error or any other displayed metric.
The resolution source will be the official Humanity’s Last Exam leaderboard at https://agi.safe.ai/. If the resolution source becomes unavailable during the listed timeframe, this market will remain open to allow the relevant data to become available again. If the source remains unavailable after the end of the listed timeframe or is otherwise confirmed to be permanently unavailable, official Humanity’s Last Exam results published elsewhere may be used. If no official alternative source is available, this market will resolve to "No".Anthropic’s Claude Fable 5.1 currently leads Humanity’s Last Exam leaderboards at 59–65% depending on evaluation conditions, reflecting strong gains in multi-domain reasoning and chain-of-thought performance on the 2,500-question expert benchmark. Recent Claude Opus 5 and Mythos 5 variants sit within one point, while OpenAI’s GPT-6 Astra and Meta’s Muse Spark 1.1 trail at 54–62% on comparable runs. The benchmark’s graduate-level questions across math, physics, and computer science continue to resist rapid saturation, rewarding incremental improvements in model scale, training data quality, and inference-time compute. Traders are watching Q4 2026 releases and any confirmed tool-use or agentic updates that could shift the frontier before year-end resolution.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any model achieves at least the specified accuracy on Humanity’s Last Exam by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For resolution, “accuracy” refers solely to the value labeled “HLE Accuracy” or a clear equivalent metric if the data’s presentation or terminology is restructured, regardless of the model’s Calibration Error or any other displayed metric.
The resolution source will be the official Humanity’s Last Exam leaderboard at https://agi.safe.ai/. If the resolution source becomes unavailable during the listed timeframe, this market will remain open to allow the relevant data to become available again. If the source remains unavailable after the end of the listed timeframe or is otherwise confirmed to be permanently unavailable, official Humanity’s Last Exam results published elsewhere may be used. If no official alternative source is available, this market will resolve to "No".
For resolution, “accuracy” refers solely to the value labeled “HLE Accuracy” or a clear equivalent metric if the data’s presentation or terminology is restructured, regardless of the model’s Calibration Error or any other displayed metric.
The resolution source will be the official Humanity’s Last Exam leaderboard at https://agi.safe.ai/. If the resolution source becomes unavailable during the listed timeframe, this market will remain open to allow the relevant data to become available again. If the source remains unavailable after the end of the listed timeframe or is otherwise confirmed to be permanently unavailable, official Humanity’s Last Exam results published elsewhere may be used. If no official alternative source is available, this market will resolve to "No".
Market Opened: Jul 23, 2026, 6:41 PM ET
Volume
$52,823End Date
Jan 1, 2027Market Opened
Jul 23, 2026, 6:41 PM ETResolution Source
https://agi.safe.ai/Resolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if any model achieves at least the specified accuracy on Humanity’s Last Exam by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For resolution, “accuracy” refers solely to the value labeled “HLE Accuracy” or a clear equivalent metric if the data’s presentation or terminology is restructured, regardless of the model’s Calibration Error or any other displayed metric.
The resolution source will be the official Humanity’s Last Exam leaderboard at https://agi.safe.ai/. If the resolution source becomes unavailable during the listed timeframe, this market will remain open to allow the relevant data to become available again. If the source remains unavailable after the end of the listed timeframe or is otherwise confirmed to be permanently unavailable, official Humanity’s Last Exam results published elsewhere may be used. If no official alternative source is available, this market will resolve to "No".Anthropic’s Claude Fable 5.1 currently leads Humanity’s Last Exam leaderboards at 59–65% depending on evaluation conditions, reflecting strong gains in multi-domain reasoning and chain-of-thought performance on the 2,500-question expert benchmark. Recent Claude Opus 5 and Mythos 5 variants sit within one point, while OpenAI’s GPT-6 Astra and Meta’s Muse Spark 1.1 trail at 54–62% on comparable runs. The benchmark’s graduate-level questions across math, physics, and computer science continue to resist rapid saturation, rewarding incremental improvements in model scale, training data quality, and inference-time compute. Traders are watching Q4 2026 releases and any confirmed tool-use or agentic updates that could shift the frontier before year-end resolution.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any model achieves at least the specified accuracy on Humanity’s Last Exam by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For resolution, “accuracy” refers solely to the value labeled “HLE Accuracy” or a clear equivalent metric if the data’s presentation or terminology is restructured, regardless of the model’s Calibration Error or any other displayed metric.
The resolution source will be the official Humanity’s Last Exam leaderboard at https://agi.safe.ai/. If the resolution source becomes unavailable during the listed timeframe, this market will remain open to allow the relevant data to become available again. If the source remains unavailable after the end of the listed timeframe or is otherwise confirmed to be permanently unavailable, official Humanity’s Last Exam results published elsewhere may be used. If no official alternative source is available, this market will resolve to "No".
For resolution, “accuracy” refers solely to the value labeled “HLE Accuracy” or a clear equivalent metric if the data’s presentation or terminology is restructured, regardless of the model’s Calibration Error or any other displayed metric.
The resolution source will be the official Humanity’s Last Exam leaderboard at https://agi.safe.ai/. If the resolution source becomes unavailable during the listed timeframe, this market will remain open to allow the relevant data to become available again. If the source remains unavailable after the end of the listed timeframe or is otherwise confirmed to be permanently unavailable, official Humanity’s Last Exam results published elsewhere may be used. If no official alternative source is available, this market will resolve to "No".
Volume
$52,823End Date
Jan 1, 2027Market Opened
Jul 23, 2026, 6:41 PM ETResolution Source
https://agi.safe.ai/Resolver
0x65070BE91...Anthropic’s Claude Fable 5.1 currently leads Humanity’s Last Exam leaderboards at 59–65% depending on evaluation conditions, reflecting strong gains in multi-domain reasoning and chain-of-thought performance on the 2,500-question expert benchmark. Recent Claude Opus 5 and Mythos 5 variants sit within one point, while OpenAI’s GPT-6 Astra and Meta’s Muse Spark 1.1 trail at 54–62% on comparable runs. The benchmark’s graduate-level questions across math, physics, and computer science continue to resist rapid saturation, rewarding incremental improvements in model scale, training data quality, and inference-time compute. Traders are watching Q4 2026 releases and any confirmed tool-use or agentic updates that could shift the frontier before year-end resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedRelated
Will the highest score achieved by an OpenAI model on Humanity’s Last Exam in 2026 be 50% or higher?
90%
Will the highest score achieved by a Meta model on Humanity’s Last Exam in 2026 be 55% or higher?
44%
Will the highest score achieved by an Anthropic Claude model on Humanity’s Last Exam in 2026 be 55% or higher?
90%
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Frequently Asked Questions