Traders assign the highest implied probability (33%) to Elon Musk exceeding 1,000 posts in October 2026, with the next tier of brackets clustering between 800 and 999, reflecting his historically variable but elevated posting pace on X. Recent August 2026 data resolved in the 880-919 range at roughly 28–30 daily posts, while 2026 weekly averages have cooled from 2025 peaks above 400 posts per week amid shifting political and business priorities. Key swing factors include upcoming product milestones at Tesla, SpaceX, and xAI, plus any major news cycles or platform announcements that typically drive reply-heavy activity. The broad distribution across dozens of low-probability lower brackets underscores the inherent unpredictability of his engagement levels month to month.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated1000+ 33%
800-839 12%
920-959 12%
960-999 11%
$35,785 Vol.
$35,785 Vol.
<20
<1%
20-39
<1%
40-59
<1%
60-79
<1%
80-99
<1%
100-119
<1%
120-139
<1%
140-159
<1%
160-179
<1%
180-199
<1%
200-219
<1%
220-239
<1%
240-259
<1%
260-279
<1%
280-299
<1%
300-319
<1%
320-339
<1%
340-359
<1%
360-379
<1%
380-399
<1%
400-419
<1%
420-439
<1%
440-459
<1%
460-479
<1%
480-499
<1%
500-519
<1%
520-539
<1%
540-559
<1%
560-579
<1%
580-599
<1%
600-619
1%
620-639
1%
640-659
1%
660-679
1%
680-699
2%
700-719
2%
720-739
2%
740-759
3%
760-779
5%
780-799
8%
800-839
12%
840-879
9%
880-919
11%
920-959
12%
960-999
11%
1000+
33%
1000+ 33%
800-839 12%
920-959 12%
960-999 11%
$35,785 Vol.
$35,785 Vol.
<20
<1%
20-39
<1%
40-59
<1%
60-79
<1%
80-99
<1%
100-119
<1%
120-139
<1%
140-159
<1%
160-179
<1%
180-199
<1%
200-219
<1%
220-239
<1%
240-259
<1%
260-279
<1%
280-299
<1%
300-319
<1%
320-339
<1%
340-359
<1%
360-379
<1%
380-399
<1%
400-419
<1%
420-439
<1%
440-459
<1%
460-479
<1%
480-499
<1%
500-519
<1%
520-539
<1%
540-559
<1%
560-579
<1%
580-599
<1%
600-619
1%
620-639
1%
640-659
1%
660-679
1%
680-699
2%
700-719
2%
720-739
2%
740-759
3%
760-779
5%
780-799
8%
800-839
12%
840-879
9%
880-919
11%
920-959
12%
960-999
11%
1000+
33%
For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count.
Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker.
Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes).
Community reposts which are not counted by the tracker not count toward the total.
The resolution source for this market is the 'Post Counter' figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.
Market Opened: Aug 24, 2026, 12:00 AM ET
Resolution Source
https://x.com/elonmuskResolver
0x69c47De9D...For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count.
Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker.
Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes).
Community reposts which are not counted by the tracker not count toward the total.
The resolution source for this market is the 'Post Counter' figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.
Resolution Source
https://x.com/elonmuskResolver
0x69c47De9D...Traders assign the highest implied probability (33%) to Elon Musk exceeding 1,000 posts in October 2026, with the next tier of brackets clustering between 800 and 999, reflecting his historically variable but elevated posting pace on X. Recent August 2026 data resolved in the 880-919 range at roughly 28–30 daily posts, while 2026 weekly averages have cooled from 2025 peaks above 400 posts per week amid shifting political and business priorities. Key swing factors include upcoming product milestones at Tesla, SpaceX, and xAI, plus any major news cycles or platform announcements that typically drive reply-heavy activity. The broad distribution across dozens of low-probability lower brackets underscores the inherent unpredictability of his engagement levels month to month.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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Beware of external links.
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