Incumbent Democrat Scott Peters advanced from the June 2026 top-two primary alongside Republican Steve Cohen to contest the November general election in California's 50th congressional district. Proposition 50's 2025 redistricting strengthened the seat's Democratic lean, producing consistent Solid or Safe Democratic ratings from forecasters such as the Cook Political Report and Sabato's Crystal Ball. Peters' substantial fundraising advantage and established incumbency in a district with favorable voter registration have anchored trader consensus at a 95.5% implied probability for the Democratic nominee. A Republican victory would require significant late-cycle shifts, such as major national political realignments, candidate-specific developments, or unusually high turnout swings not currently signaled in available data.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedCA-50 House Election Winner
CA-50 House Election Winner
$63,985 Vol.
$63,985 Vol.
Nov 2, 2026
Democratic Party
96%
Republican Party
5%
$63,985 Vol.
$63,985 Vol.
Nov 2, 2026
Democratic Party
$38,488 Vol.
96%
Republican Party
$25,496 Vol.
5%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-50 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Democrat Scott Peters advanced from the June 2026 top-two primary alongside Republican Steve Cohen to contest the November general election in California's 50th congressional district. Proposition 50's 2025 redistricting strengthened the seat's Democratic lean, producing consistent Solid or Safe Democratic ratings from forecasters such as the Cook Political Report and Sabato's Crystal Ball. Peters' substantial fundraising advantage and established incumbency in a district with favorable voter registration have anchored trader consensus at a 95.5% implied probability for the Democratic nominee. A Republican victory would require significant late-cycle shifts, such as major national political realignments, candidate-specific developments, or unusually high turnout swings not currently signaled in available data.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-50 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Market Opened: Jan 28, 2026, 10:30 AM ET
Volume
$63,985End Date
Nov 3, 2026Market Opened
Jan 28, 2026, 10:30 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-50 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Democrat Scott Peters advanced from the June 2026 top-two primary alongside Republican Steve Cohen to contest the November general election in California's 50th congressional district. Proposition 50's 2025 redistricting strengthened the seat's Democratic lean, producing consistent Solid or Safe Democratic ratings from forecasters such as the Cook Political Report and Sabato's Crystal Ball. Peters' substantial fundraising advantage and established incumbency in a district with favorable voter registration have anchored trader consensus at a 95.5% implied probability for the Democratic nominee. A Republican victory would require significant late-cycle shifts, such as major national political realignments, candidate-specific developments, or unusually high turnout swings not currently signaled in available data.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-50 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Volume
$63,985End Date
Nov 3, 2026Market Opened
Jan 28, 2026, 10:30 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Incumbent Democrat Scott Peters advanced from the June 2026 top-two primary alongside Republican Steve Cohen to contest the November general election in California's 50th congressional district. Proposition 50's 2025 redistricting strengthened the seat's Democratic lean, producing consistent Solid or Safe Democratic ratings from forecasters such as the Cook Political Report and Sabato's Crystal Ball. Peters' substantial fundraising advantage and established incumbency in a district with favorable voter registration have anchored trader consensus at a 95.5% implied probability for the Democratic nominee. A Republican victory would require significant late-cycle shifts, such as major national political realignments, candidate-specific developments, or unusually high turnout swings not currently signaled in available data.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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