A strengthening major El Niño event, with Niño 3.4 indices reaching record levels for the season and projected to peak near +4°C, has driven exceptional warmth into the global surface temperature record for August 2026. This, combined with long-term anthropogenic warming and record extra-polar ocean temperatures peaking at 21.1°C in late August, positions the anomaly near 1.4°C above the 1850–1900 baseline in authoritative datasets such as ERA5. Trader consensus at 90% for the 1.38–1.41°C bin reflects these verified conditions and model consensus on El Niño amplification, while the narrow spread around this range accounts for minor dataset variations and the typical uncertainty in final monthly processing. Upcoming Copernicus and NOAA confirmations will resolve the market.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedAugust 2026 Temperature Increase (ºC) (HIGHER STRIKES)
August 2026 Temperature Increase (ºC) (HIGHER STRIKES)
1.38–1.41ºC 90%
1.42–1.45ºC 4%
1.34–1.37ºC 1.3%
>1.45ºC <1%
$20,513 Vol.
$20,513 Vol.
Aug 31, 2026
<1.30ºC
<1%
1.30–1.33ºC
<1%
1.34–1.37ºC
1%
1.38–1.41ºC
90%
1.42–1.45ºC
7%
>1.45ºC
<1%
1.38–1.41ºC 90%
1.42–1.45ºC 4%
1.34–1.37ºC 1.3%
>1.45ºC <1%
$20,513 Vol.
$20,513 Vol.
Aug 31, 2026
<1.30ºC
$657 Vol.
<1%
1.30–1.33ºC
$1,462 Vol.
<1%
1.34–1.37ºC
$3,129 Vol.
1%
1.38–1.41ºC
$4,488 Vol.
90%
1.42–1.45ºC
$9,247 Vol.
7%
>1.45ºC
$1,531 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve according to the value reported by the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for August 2026 when it is released.
An anomaly within a named bracket for August 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for August 2026 is later revised.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Aug" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt).
If NASA’s “Global Temperature Index” is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for August 2026 is provided by NASA by October 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.A strengthening major El Niño event, with Niño 3.4 indices reaching record levels for the season and projected to peak near +4°C, has driven exceptional warmth into the global surface temperature record for August 2026. This, combined with long-term anthropogenic warming and record extra-polar ocean temperatures peaking at 21.1°C in late August, positions the anomaly near 1.4°C above the 1850–1900 baseline in authoritative datasets such as ERA5. Trader consensus at 90% for the 1.38–1.41°C bin reflects these verified conditions and model consensus on El Niño amplification, while the narrow spread around this range accounts for minor dataset variations and the typical uncertainty in final monthly processing. Upcoming Copernicus and NOAA confirmations will resolve the market.
This market will resolve according to the value reported by the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for August 2026 when it is released.
An anomaly within a named bracket for August 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for August 2026 is later revised.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Aug" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt).
If NASA’s “Global Temperature Index” is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for August 2026 is provided by NASA by October 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
An anomaly within a named bracket for August 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for August 2026 is later revised.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Aug" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt).
If NASA’s “Global Temperature Index” is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for August 2026 is provided by NASA by October 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
Market Opened: Aug 14, 2026, 2:30 PM ET
Volume
$20,513End Date
Sep 1, 2026Market Opened
Aug 14, 2026, 2:30 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the value reported by the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for August 2026 when it is released.
An anomaly within a named bracket for August 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for August 2026 is later revised.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Aug" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt).
If NASA’s “Global Temperature Index” is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for August 2026 is provided by NASA by October 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.A strengthening major El Niño event, with Niño 3.4 indices reaching record levels for the season and projected to peak near +4°C, has driven exceptional warmth into the global surface temperature record for August 2026. This, combined with long-term anthropogenic warming and record extra-polar ocean temperatures peaking at 21.1°C in late August, positions the anomaly near 1.4°C above the 1850–1900 baseline in authoritative datasets such as ERA5. Trader consensus at 90% for the 1.38–1.41°C bin reflects these verified conditions and model consensus on El Niño amplification, while the narrow spread around this range accounts for minor dataset variations and the typical uncertainty in final monthly processing. Upcoming Copernicus and NOAA confirmations will resolve the market.
This market will resolve according to the value reported by the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for August 2026 when it is released.
An anomaly within a named bracket for August 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for August 2026 is later revised.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Aug" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt).
If NASA’s “Global Temperature Index” is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for August 2026 is provided by NASA by October 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
An anomaly within a named bracket for August 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for August 2026 is later revised.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Aug" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt).
If NASA’s “Global Temperature Index” is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for August 2026 is provided by NASA by October 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
Volume
$20,513End Date
Sep 1, 2026Market Opened
Aug 14, 2026, 2:30 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...A strengthening major El Niño event, with Niño 3.4 indices reaching record levels for the season and projected to peak near +4°C, has driven exceptional warmth into the global surface temperature record for August 2026. This, combined with long-term anthropogenic warming and record extra-polar ocean temperatures peaking at 21.1°C in late August, positions the anomaly near 1.4°C above the 1850–1900 baseline in authoritative datasets such as ERA5. Trader consensus at 90% for the 1.38–1.41°C bin reflects these verified conditions and model consensus on El Niño amplification, while the narrow spread around this range accounts for minor dataset variations and the typical uncertainty in final monthly processing. Upcoming Copernicus and NOAA confirmations will resolve the market.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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