Apple’s upcoming “Surprise and Shine” event on September 9, 2026, is the main catalyst behind the 95.7% implied probability. Multiple supply-chain reports confirm the book-style foldable iPhone—widely expected to be called iPhone Ultra or iPhone Fold—has completed testing and entered limited production, with credible reporting from Bloomberg’s Mark Gurman and others placing the reveal alongside the iPhone 18 Pro models. Recent updates show output at a few hundred units daily and software features prepared in iOS 27, aligning with Apple’s historical fall launch pattern. While manufacturing constraints could limit early availability, the market focuses on announcement timing; realistic disruptions such as a last-minute delay or regulatory hold remain low-probability given the advanced stage and event confirmation.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated96% chance
$12,795 Vol.
$12,795 Vol.
Sep 9, 2026
96% chance
$12,795 Vol.
$12,795 Vol.
Sep 9, 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Apple announces it has or will release a foldable iPhone during the "Surprise and Shine" event currently scheduled for 10 a.m. PT on September 9, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve immediately upon qualifying announcements from Apple, regardless of if/when the specified product becomes available for purchase. Any announcements made outside of the "Surprise and Shine" event will not qualify. Only announcements made at the specified event will qualify.
Any foldable smartphone announced by Apple will qualify, even if it is not explicitly branded as an iPhone.
If the "Surprise and Shine" event does not occur by September 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements from Apple. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Apple’s upcoming “Surprise and Shine” event on September 9, 2026, is the main catalyst behind the 95.7% implied probability. Multiple supply-chain reports confirm the book-style foldable iPhone—widely expected to be called iPhone Ultra or iPhone Fold—has completed testing and entered limited production, with credible reporting from Bloomberg’s Mark Gurman and others placing the reveal alongside the iPhone 18 Pro models. Recent updates show output at a few hundred units daily and software features prepared in iOS 27, aligning with Apple’s historical fall launch pattern. While manufacturing constraints could limit early availability, the market focuses on announcement timing; realistic disruptions such as a last-minute delay or regulatory hold remain low-probability given the advanced stage and event confirmation.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Apple announces it has or will release a foldable iPhone during the "Surprise and Shine" event currently scheduled for 10 a.m. PT on September 9, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve immediately upon qualifying announcements from Apple, regardless of if/when the specified product becomes available for purchase. Any announcements made outside of the "Surprise and Shine" event will not qualify. Only announcements made at the specified event will qualify.
Any foldable smartphone announced by Apple will qualify, even if it is not explicitly branded as an iPhone.
If the "Surprise and Shine" event does not occur by September 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements from Apple. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market will resolve immediately upon qualifying announcements from Apple, regardless of if/when the specified product becomes available for purchase. Any announcements made outside of the "Surprise and Shine" event will not qualify. Only announcements made at the specified event will qualify.
Any foldable smartphone announced by Apple will qualify, even if it is not explicitly branded as an iPhone.
If the "Surprise and Shine" event does not occur by September 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements from Apple. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Market Opened: Sep 2, 2026, 8:11 PM ET
Volume
$12,795End Date
Sep 9, 2026Market Opened
Sep 2, 2026, 8:11 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if Apple announces it has or will release a foldable iPhone during the "Surprise and Shine" event currently scheduled for 10 a.m. PT on September 9, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve immediately upon qualifying announcements from Apple, regardless of if/when the specified product becomes available for purchase. Any announcements made outside of the "Surprise and Shine" event will not qualify. Only announcements made at the specified event will qualify.
Any foldable smartphone announced by Apple will qualify, even if it is not explicitly branded as an iPhone.
If the "Surprise and Shine" event does not occur by September 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements from Apple. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Apple’s upcoming “Surprise and Shine” event on September 9, 2026, is the main catalyst behind the 95.7% implied probability. Multiple supply-chain reports confirm the book-style foldable iPhone—widely expected to be called iPhone Ultra or iPhone Fold—has completed testing and entered limited production, with credible reporting from Bloomberg’s Mark Gurman and others placing the reveal alongside the iPhone 18 Pro models. Recent updates show output at a few hundred units daily and software features prepared in iOS 27, aligning with Apple’s historical fall launch pattern. While manufacturing constraints could limit early availability, the market focuses on announcement timing; realistic disruptions such as a last-minute delay or regulatory hold remain low-probability given the advanced stage and event confirmation.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Apple announces it has or will release a foldable iPhone during the "Surprise and Shine" event currently scheduled for 10 a.m. PT on September 9, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve immediately upon qualifying announcements from Apple, regardless of if/when the specified product becomes available for purchase. Any announcements made outside of the "Surprise and Shine" event will not qualify. Only announcements made at the specified event will qualify.
Any foldable smartphone announced by Apple will qualify, even if it is not explicitly branded as an iPhone.
If the "Surprise and Shine" event does not occur by September 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements from Apple. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market will resolve immediately upon qualifying announcements from Apple, regardless of if/when the specified product becomes available for purchase. Any announcements made outside of the "Surprise and Shine" event will not qualify. Only announcements made at the specified event will qualify.
Any foldable smartphone announced by Apple will qualify, even if it is not explicitly branded as an iPhone.
If the "Surprise and Shine" event does not occur by September 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements from Apple. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volume
$12,795End Date
Sep 9, 2026Market Opened
Sep 2, 2026, 8:11 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Apple’s upcoming “Surprise and Shine” event on September 9, 2026, is the main catalyst behind the 95.7% implied probability. Multiple supply-chain reports confirm the book-style foldable iPhone—widely expected to be called iPhone Ultra or iPhone Fold—has completed testing and entered limited production, with credible reporting from Bloomberg’s Mark Gurman and others placing the reveal alongside the iPhone 18 Pro models. Recent updates show output at a few hundred units daily and software features prepared in iOS 27, aligning with Apple’s historical fall launch pattern. While manufacturing constraints could limit early availability, the market focuses on announcement timing; realistic disruptions such as a last-minute delay or regulatory hold remain low-probability given the advanced stage and event confirmation.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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