Recent U.S. sanctions relief, political transition, and foreign investment inflows have lifted Venezuelan crude output to around 1.2 million barrels per day in mid-2026, up from sub-1 million levels earlier in the year. Chevron’s planned $7 billion spend to roughly double its joint-venture production and similar commitments from Eni and others are supporting brownfield gains, aided by higher global prices that facilitate diluent imports and debt recovery. However, extra-heavy Orinoco crudes require costly upgrading infrastructure with multi-year lead times, while rig shortages, logistics bottlenecks, and recent earthquake impacts constrain near-term acceleration. Official targets of 1.37 million barrels per day by year-end contrast with more conservative analyst forecasts of gradual growth toward 1.4 million only by 2028, leaving 2026 outcomes dependent on execution speed and sustained capital access.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated$184,115 Vol.
Feb 27, 2027
1.2m
61%
1.3m
23%
1.4m
8%
1.5m
6%
1.7m
3%
2m
2%
$184,115 Vol.
1.2m
$10,884 Vol.
61%
1.3m
$7,925 Vol.
23%
1.4m
$19,774 Vol.
8%
1.5m
$9,840 Vol.
6%
1.7m
$59,715 Vol.
3%
2m
$16,339 Vol.
2%
This market will resolve to “Yes”, if Venezuelan crude oil production is greater than or equal to the listed number of barrels per day for any month in 2026, according to the OPEC Monthly Oil Market Report published for each month.
The resolution source for this market will be the OPEC Monthly Oil Market Report, published each month in reference to the previous month at https://www.opec.org/monthly-oil-market-report.html. The relevant figure can be found in “Table 5-7 DoC crude oil production based on secondary sources, tb/d” under the column for the relevant month and the “Venezuela” row.
This market will resolve as soon as Venezuelan crude oil production is reported to be greater than or equal to the listed number. If the listed number has not been reached for any month by the release of the OPEC Monthly Oil Market Report for the reference month December 2026 (expected to be released in January 2027), this market will resolve to “No”. If no Opec Monthly Oil Market Report for the reference month December 2026 has been published by February 28, 2027, ET and the listed number has not been reached for any prior month, this market will resolve to “No”.
The resolution source for this market reports crude oil production in thousands of barrels per day. Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving this market.Recent U.S. sanctions relief, political transition, and foreign investment inflows have lifted Venezuelan crude output to around 1.2 million barrels per day in mid-2026, up from sub-1 million levels earlier in the year. Chevron’s planned $7 billion spend to roughly double its joint-venture production and similar commitments from Eni and others are supporting brownfield gains, aided by higher global prices that facilitate diluent imports and debt recovery. However, extra-heavy Orinoco crudes require costly upgrading infrastructure with multi-year lead times, while rig shortages, logistics bottlenecks, and recent earthquake impacts constrain near-term acceleration. Official targets of 1.37 million barrels per day by year-end contrast with more conservative analyst forecasts of gradual growth toward 1.4 million only by 2028, leaving 2026 outcomes dependent on execution speed and sustained capital access.
This market will resolve to “Yes”, if Venezuelan crude oil production is greater than or equal to the listed number of barrels per day for any month in 2026, according to the OPEC Monthly Oil Market Report published for each month.
The resolution source for this market will be the OPEC Monthly Oil Market Report, published each month in reference to the previous month at https://www.opec.org/monthly-oil-market-report.html. The relevant figure can be found in “Table 5-7 DoC crude oil production based on secondary sources, tb/d” under the column for the relevant month and the “Venezuela” row.
This market will resolve as soon as Venezuelan crude oil production is reported to be greater than or equal to the listed number. If the listed number has not been reached for any month by the release of the OPEC Monthly Oil Market Report for the reference month December 2026 (expected to be released in January 2027), this market will resolve to “No”. If no Opec Monthly Oil Market Report for the reference month December 2026 has been published by February 28, 2027, ET and the listed number has not been reached for any prior month, this market will resolve to “No”.
The resolution source for this market reports crude oil production in thousands of barrels per day. Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving this market.
The resolution source for this market will be the OPEC Monthly Oil Market Report, published each month in reference to the previous month at https://www.opec.org/monthly-oil-market-report.html. The relevant figure can be found in “Table 5-7 DoC crude oil production based on secondary sources, tb/d” under the column for the relevant month and the “Venezuela” row.
This market will resolve as soon as Venezuelan crude oil production is reported to be greater than or equal to the listed number. If the listed number has not been reached for any month by the release of the OPEC Monthly Oil Market Report for the reference month December 2026 (expected to be released in January 2027), this market will resolve to “No”. If no Opec Monthly Oil Market Report for the reference month December 2026 has been published by February 28, 2027, ET and the listed number has not been reached for any prior month, this market will resolve to “No”.
The resolution source for this market reports crude oil production in thousands of barrels per day. Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving this market.
Market Opened: Jan 6, 2026, 11:09 PM ET
Volume
$184,115End Date
Feb 28, 2027Market Opened
Jan 6, 2026, 11:09 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes”, if Venezuelan crude oil production is greater than or equal to the listed number of barrels per day for any month in 2026, according to the OPEC Monthly Oil Market Report published for each month.
The resolution source for this market will be the OPEC Monthly Oil Market Report, published each month in reference to the previous month at https://www.opec.org/monthly-oil-market-report.html. The relevant figure can be found in “Table 5-7 DoC crude oil production based on secondary sources, tb/d” under the column for the relevant month and the “Venezuela” row.
This market will resolve as soon as Venezuelan crude oil production is reported to be greater than or equal to the listed number. If the listed number has not been reached for any month by the release of the OPEC Monthly Oil Market Report for the reference month December 2026 (expected to be released in January 2027), this market will resolve to “No”. If no Opec Monthly Oil Market Report for the reference month December 2026 has been published by February 28, 2027, ET and the listed number has not been reached for any prior month, this market will resolve to “No”.
The resolution source for this market reports crude oil production in thousands of barrels per day. Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving this market.Recent U.S. sanctions relief, political transition, and foreign investment inflows have lifted Venezuelan crude output to around 1.2 million barrels per day in mid-2026, up from sub-1 million levels earlier in the year. Chevron’s planned $7 billion spend to roughly double its joint-venture production and similar commitments from Eni and others are supporting brownfield gains, aided by higher global prices that facilitate diluent imports and debt recovery. However, extra-heavy Orinoco crudes require costly upgrading infrastructure with multi-year lead times, while rig shortages, logistics bottlenecks, and recent earthquake impacts constrain near-term acceleration. Official targets of 1.37 million barrels per day by year-end contrast with more conservative analyst forecasts of gradual growth toward 1.4 million only by 2028, leaving 2026 outcomes dependent on execution speed and sustained capital access.
This market will resolve to “Yes”, if Venezuelan crude oil production is greater than or equal to the listed number of barrels per day for any month in 2026, according to the OPEC Monthly Oil Market Report published for each month.
The resolution source for this market will be the OPEC Monthly Oil Market Report, published each month in reference to the previous month at https://www.opec.org/monthly-oil-market-report.html. The relevant figure can be found in “Table 5-7 DoC crude oil production based on secondary sources, tb/d” under the column for the relevant month and the “Venezuela” row.
This market will resolve as soon as Venezuelan crude oil production is reported to be greater than or equal to the listed number. If the listed number has not been reached for any month by the release of the OPEC Monthly Oil Market Report for the reference month December 2026 (expected to be released in January 2027), this market will resolve to “No”. If no Opec Monthly Oil Market Report for the reference month December 2026 has been published by February 28, 2027, ET and the listed number has not been reached for any prior month, this market will resolve to “No”.
The resolution source for this market reports crude oil production in thousands of barrels per day. Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving this market.
The resolution source for this market will be the OPEC Monthly Oil Market Report, published each month in reference to the previous month at https://www.opec.org/monthly-oil-market-report.html. The relevant figure can be found in “Table 5-7 DoC crude oil production based on secondary sources, tb/d” under the column for the relevant month and the “Venezuela” row.
This market will resolve as soon as Venezuelan crude oil production is reported to be greater than or equal to the listed number. If the listed number has not been reached for any month by the release of the OPEC Monthly Oil Market Report for the reference month December 2026 (expected to be released in January 2027), this market will resolve to “No”. If no Opec Monthly Oil Market Report for the reference month December 2026 has been published by February 28, 2027, ET and the listed number has not been reached for any prior month, this market will resolve to “No”.
The resolution source for this market reports crude oil production in thousands of barrels per day. Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving this market.
Volume
$184,115End Date
Feb 28, 2027Market Opened
Jan 6, 2026, 11:09 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Recent U.S. sanctions relief, political transition, and foreign investment inflows have lifted Venezuelan crude output to around 1.2 million barrels per day in mid-2026, up from sub-1 million levels earlier in the year. Chevron’s planned $7 billion spend to roughly double its joint-venture production and similar commitments from Eni and others are supporting brownfield gains, aided by higher global prices that facilitate diluent imports and debt recovery. However, extra-heavy Orinoco crudes require costly upgrading infrastructure with multi-year lead times, while rig shortages, logistics bottlenecks, and recent earthquake impacts constrain near-term acceleration. Official targets of 1.37 million barrels per day by year-end contrast with more conservative analyst forecasts of gradual growth toward 1.4 million only by 2028, leaving 2026 outcomes dependent on execution speed and sustained capital access.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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