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icon for Will US crude oil reserves fall to __ by September 25?
Economy·Oil

Will US crude oil reserves fall to __ by September 25?

icon for Will US crude oil reserves fall to __ by September 25?
Economy·Oil

Will US crude oil reserves fall to __ by September 25?

Oct 7

Oct 7

$37,341 Vol.

Oct 7, 2026
Polymarket

$37,341 Vol.

Polymarket

280M

$30,543 Vol.

82%

270M

$2,308 Vol.

45%

260M

$1,475 Vol.

3%

250M

$1,204 Vol.

1%

200M

$1,812 Vol.

1%

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the U.S. Energy Information Administration publishes a weekly figure for U.S. Ending Stocks of Crude Oil in the Strategic Petroleum Reserve less than or equal to the specified value after market creation for any week ending on or before September 25, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. This market will resolve as soon as the listed value is reached, or once data has been released for the final week ending on or before September 25, 2026, and the listed value has not been reached. If data has not been released for the final week ending on September 25, 2026, by October 7, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve based on the data available at that time. The primary resolution source for this market will be the U.S. Energy Information Administration, specifically the weekly data published for the U.S. Ending Stocks of Crude Oil in the Strategic Petroleum Reserve at https://www.eia.gov/dnav/pet/hist/LeafHandler.ashx?n=PET&s=WCSSTUS1&f=W. Note: this market’s resolution source publishes weekly values of U.S. Ending Stocks of Crude Oil in the Strategic Petroleum Reserve in thousands of barrels. Thus, this will be the level of specificity used to resolve this market.US crude oil inventories, particularly the Strategic Petroleum Reserve at 286.6 million barrels as of the August 28 EIA report, continue to draw amid ongoing policy releases aimed at easing fuel prices. Commercial crude stocks fell 4.5 million barrels to 424.5 million that week, with total US crude declining 7.57 million barrels to 711 million, reflecting tighter supply/demand balances near seasonal averages. Recent weekly SPR draws of 3–6 million barrels stem from prior emergency sales and production dynamics, while WTI prices around $84–87 signal persistent market tightness. The next EIA Petroleum Status Report on September 10 will provide key updates ahead of the September 25 resolution, with refinery runs, imports, and any additional drawdowns serving as primary swing factors for near-term inventory levels.

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the U.S. Energy Information Administration publishes a weekly figure for U.S. Ending Stocks of Crude Oil in the Strategic Petroleum Reserve less than or equal to the specified value after market creation for any week ending on or before September 25, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

This market will resolve as soon as the listed value is reached, or once data has been released for the final week ending on or before September 25, 2026, and the listed value has not been reached.

If data has not been released for the final week ending on September 25, 2026, by October 7, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve based on the data available at that time.

The primary resolution source for this market will be the U.S. Energy Information Administration, specifically the weekly data published for the U.S. Ending Stocks of Crude Oil in the Strategic Petroleum Reserve at https://www.eia.gov/dnav/pet/hist/LeafHandler.ashx?n=PET&s=WCSSTUS1&f=W.

Note: this market’s resolution source publishes weekly values of U.S. Ending Stocks of Crude Oil in the Strategic Petroleum Reserve in thousands of barrels. Thus, this will be the level of specificity used to resolve this market.This market will resolve to “Yes” if the U.S. Energy Information Administration publishes a weekly figure for U.S. Ending Stocks of Crude Oil in the Strategic Petroleum Reserve less than or equal to the specified value after market creation for any week ending on or before September 25, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. This market will resolve as soon as the listed value is reached, or once data has been released for the final week ending on or before September 25, 2026, and the listed value has not been reached. If data has not been released for the final week ending on September 25, 2026, by October 7, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve based on the data available at that time. The primary resolution source for this market will be the U.S. Energy Information Administration, specifically the weekly data published for the U.S. Ending Stocks of Crude Oil in the Strategic Petroleum Reserve at https://www.eia.gov/dnav/pet/hist/LeafHandler.ashx?n=PET&s=WCSSTUS1&f=W. Note: this market’s resolution source publishes weekly values of U.S. Ending Stocks of Crude Oil in the Strategic Petroleum Reserve in thousands of barrels. Thus, this will be the level of specificity used to resolve this market.
Volume
$37,341
End Date
Oct 7, 2026
Market Opened
Aug 26, 2026, 5:54 PM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the U.S. Energy Information Administration publishes a weekly figure for U.S. Ending Stocks of Crude Oil in the Strategic Petroleum Reserve less than or equal to the specified value after market creation for any week ending on or before September 25, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. This market will resolve as soon as the listed value is reached, or once data has been released for the final week ending on or before September 25, 2026, and the listed value has not been reached. If data has not been released for the final week ending on September 25, 2026, by October 7, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve based on the data available at that time. The primary resolution source for this market will be the U.S. Energy Information Administration, specifically the weekly data published for the U.S. Ending Stocks of Crude Oil in the Strategic Petroleum Reserve at https://www.eia.gov/dnav/pet/hist/LeafHandler.ashx?n=PET&s=WCSSTUS1&f=W. Note: this market’s resolution source publishes weekly values of U.S. Ending Stocks of Crude Oil in the Strategic Petroleum Reserve in thousands of barrels. Thus, this will be the level of specificity used to resolve this market.US crude oil inventories, particularly the Strategic Petroleum Reserve at 286.6 million barrels as of the August 28 EIA report, continue to draw amid ongoing policy releases aimed at easing fuel prices. Commercial crude stocks fell 4.5 million barrels to 424.5 million that week, with total US crude declining 7.57 million barrels to 711 million, reflecting tighter supply/demand balances near seasonal averages. Recent weekly SPR draws of 3–6 million barrels stem from prior emergency sales and production dynamics, while WTI prices around $84–87 signal persistent market tightness. The next EIA Petroleum Status Report on September 10 will provide key updates ahead of the September 25 resolution, with refinery runs, imports, and any additional drawdowns serving as primary swing factors for near-term inventory levels.

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the U.S. Energy Information Administration publishes a weekly figure for U.S. Ending Stocks of Crude Oil in the Strategic Petroleum Reserve less than or equal to the specified value after market creation for any week ending on or before September 25, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

This market will resolve as soon as the listed value is reached, or once data has been released for the final week ending on or before September 25, 2026, and the listed value has not been reached.

If data has not been released for the final week ending on September 25, 2026, by October 7, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve based on the data available at that time.

The primary resolution source for this market will be the U.S. Energy Information Administration, specifically the weekly data published for the U.S. Ending Stocks of Crude Oil in the Strategic Petroleum Reserve at https://www.eia.gov/dnav/pet/hist/LeafHandler.ashx?n=PET&s=WCSSTUS1&f=W.

Note: this market’s resolution source publishes weekly values of U.S. Ending Stocks of Crude Oil in the Strategic Petroleum Reserve in thousands of barrels. Thus, this will be the level of specificity used to resolve this market.This market will resolve to “Yes” if the U.S. Energy Information Administration publishes a weekly figure for U.S. Ending Stocks of Crude Oil in the Strategic Petroleum Reserve less than or equal to the specified value after market creation for any week ending on or before September 25, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. This market will resolve as soon as the listed value is reached, or once data has been released for the final week ending on or before September 25, 2026, and the listed value has not been reached. If data has not been released for the final week ending on September 25, 2026, by October 7, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve based on the data available at that time. The primary resolution source for this market will be the U.S. Energy Information Administration, specifically the weekly data published for the U.S. Ending Stocks of Crude Oil in the Strategic Petroleum Reserve at https://www.eia.gov/dnav/pet/hist/LeafHandler.ashx?n=PET&s=WCSSTUS1&f=W. Note: this market’s resolution source publishes weekly values of U.S. Ending Stocks of Crude Oil in the Strategic Petroleum Reserve in thousands of barrels. Thus, this will be the level of specificity used to resolve this market.
Volume
$37,341
End Date
Oct 7, 2026
Market Opened
Aug 26, 2026, 5:54 PM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...

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Frequently Asked Questions

"Will US crude oil reserves fall to __ by September 25?" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 5 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "280M" at 82%, followed by "270M" at 45%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 82¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 82% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

As of today, "Will US crude oil reserves fall to __ by September 25?" has generated $37.3K in total trading volume since the market launched on Aug 26, 2026. This level of trading activity reflects strong engagement from the Polymarket community and helps ensure that the current odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants. You can track live price movements and trade on any outcome directly on this page.

To trade on "Will US crude oil reserves fall to __ by September 25?," browse the 5 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "Will US crude oil reserves fall to __ by September 25?" is "280M" at 82%, meaning the market assigns a 82% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "270M" at 45%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "Will US crude oil reserves fall to __ by September 25?" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.