Avengers: Doomsday commands overwhelming trader consensus at 94.9% implied probability thanks to explosive advance ticket sales exceeding $35 million, more than double the pace of recent MCU benchmarks like Deadpool & Wolverine, and tracking estimates pointing to a $260–300 million domestic opening. The film’s multiverse-scale ensemble, Robert Downey Jr. as Doctor Doom, and broad family appeal position it as the year’s premier event release, echoing the record-breaking momentum of prior Avengers crossovers. Dune: Part Three benefits from franchise-critical acclaim, strong pre-sales momentum toward a potential $100 million-plus debut, and exclusive IMAX access, yet faces steeper barriers against Marvel’s wider theatrical footprint and marketing reach. With both titles locked for December 18, final tracking updates and holiday positioning will test whether any late surge narrows the gap.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedWill Dune 3 or Avengers: Doomsday gross more on their opening weekend?
Will Dune 3 or Avengers: Doomsday gross more on their opening weekend?
Dune 3
5% chance
$53,378 Vol.
$53,378 Vol.
Dec 19, 2026
Dune 3
5% chance
$53,378 Vol.
$53,378 Vol.
Dec 19, 2026
Avengers: Doomsday and Dune 3 are scheduled for release on December 18, 2026. This market will resolve according to the film which grosses more domestically during their opening weekend in theaters. The "Daily Box Office Performance" figures found on the “Box Office” tab on these movies' The Numbers (https://www.the-numbers.com/) pages will be used to resolve this market once the values for the 3-day opening weekend (December 18 - December 20) are final (i.e., not studio estimates).
If both movies report the same gross for the 3-day opening weekend, this market will resolve in favor of the movie whose title comes first in alphabetical order.
Please note, this market will resolve according to the The Numbers figures provided under Weekend Box Office Performance for the 3-day weekend (which typically includes Thursday's previews), regardless of whether domestic refers to only the USA, or to USA and Canada, etc.
If there is ambiguity as to whether the resolution source's figures are final, this market will remain open until both https://www.boxofficemojo.com/ and https://www.the-numbers.com/ have confirmed their finalized figures.
If there is no final data available by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.
If the release date for one movie changes, this market will resolve to the movie which grosses more in its opening weekend once opening weekend figures for both movies are finalized.
If the release of either movie is delayed beyond February 28, 2027, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to 50-50.Avengers: Doomsday commands overwhelming trader consensus at 94.9% implied probability thanks to explosive advance ticket sales exceeding $35 million, more than double the pace of recent MCU benchmarks like Deadpool & Wolverine, and tracking estimates pointing to a $260–300 million domestic opening. The film’s multiverse-scale ensemble, Robert Downey Jr. as Doctor Doom, and broad family appeal position it as the year’s premier event release, echoing the record-breaking momentum of prior Avengers crossovers. Dune: Part Three benefits from franchise-critical acclaim, strong pre-sales momentum toward a potential $100 million-plus debut, and exclusive IMAX access, yet faces steeper barriers against Marvel’s wider theatrical footprint and marketing reach. With both titles locked for December 18, final tracking updates and holiday positioning will test whether any late surge narrows the gap.
Avengers: Doomsday and Dune 3 are scheduled for release on December 18, 2026. This market will resolve according to the film which grosses more domestically during their opening weekend in theaters. The "Daily Box Office Performance" figures found on the “Box Office” tab on these movies' The Numbers (https://www.the-numbers.com/) pages will be used to resolve this market once the values for the 3-day opening weekend (December 18 - December 20) are final (i.e., not studio estimates).
If both movies report the same gross for the 3-day opening weekend, this market will resolve in favor of the movie whose title comes first in alphabetical order.
Please note, this market will resolve according to the The Numbers figures provided under Weekend Box Office Performance for the 3-day weekend (which typically includes Thursday's previews), regardless of whether domestic refers to only the USA, or to USA and Canada, etc.
If there is ambiguity as to whether the resolution source's figures are final, this market will remain open until both https://www.boxofficemojo.com/ and https://www.the-numbers.com/ have confirmed their finalized figures.
If there is no final data available by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.
If the release date for one movie changes, this market will resolve to the movie which grosses more in its opening weekend once opening weekend figures for both movies are finalized.
If the release of either movie is delayed beyond February 28, 2027, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to 50-50.
If both movies report the same gross for the 3-day opening weekend, this market will resolve in favor of the movie whose title comes first in alphabetical order.
Please note, this market will resolve according to the The Numbers figures provided under Weekend Box Office Performance for the 3-day weekend (which typically includes Thursday's previews), regardless of whether domestic refers to only the USA, or to USA and Canada, etc.
If there is ambiguity as to whether the resolution source's figures are final, this market will remain open until both https://www.boxofficemojo.com/ and https://www.the-numbers.com/ have confirmed their finalized figures.
If there is no final data available by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.
If the release date for one movie changes, this market will resolve to the movie which grosses more in its opening weekend once opening weekend figures for both movies are finalized.
If the release of either movie is delayed beyond February 28, 2027, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to 50-50.
Market Opened: Jan 5, 2026, 5:46 PM ET
Volume
$53,378End Date
Dec 20, 2026Market Opened
Jan 5, 2026, 5:46 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Avengers: Doomsday and Dune 3 are scheduled for release on December 18, 2026. This market will resolve according to the film which grosses more domestically during their opening weekend in theaters. The "Daily Box Office Performance" figures found on the “Box Office” tab on these movies' The Numbers (https://www.the-numbers.com/) pages will be used to resolve this market once the values for the 3-day opening weekend (December 18 - December 20) are final (i.e., not studio estimates).
If both movies report the same gross for the 3-day opening weekend, this market will resolve in favor of the movie whose title comes first in alphabetical order.
Please note, this market will resolve according to the The Numbers figures provided under Weekend Box Office Performance for the 3-day weekend (which typically includes Thursday's previews), regardless of whether domestic refers to only the USA, or to USA and Canada, etc.
If there is ambiguity as to whether the resolution source's figures are final, this market will remain open until both https://www.boxofficemojo.com/ and https://www.the-numbers.com/ have confirmed their finalized figures.
If there is no final data available by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.
If the release date for one movie changes, this market will resolve to the movie which grosses more in its opening weekend once opening weekend figures for both movies are finalized.
If the release of either movie is delayed beyond February 28, 2027, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to 50-50.Avengers: Doomsday commands overwhelming trader consensus at 94.9% implied probability thanks to explosive advance ticket sales exceeding $35 million, more than double the pace of recent MCU benchmarks like Deadpool & Wolverine, and tracking estimates pointing to a $260–300 million domestic opening. The film’s multiverse-scale ensemble, Robert Downey Jr. as Doctor Doom, and broad family appeal position it as the year’s premier event release, echoing the record-breaking momentum of prior Avengers crossovers. Dune: Part Three benefits from franchise-critical acclaim, strong pre-sales momentum toward a potential $100 million-plus debut, and exclusive IMAX access, yet faces steeper barriers against Marvel’s wider theatrical footprint and marketing reach. With both titles locked for December 18, final tracking updates and holiday positioning will test whether any late surge narrows the gap.
Avengers: Doomsday and Dune 3 are scheduled for release on December 18, 2026. This market will resolve according to the film which grosses more domestically during their opening weekend in theaters. The "Daily Box Office Performance" figures found on the “Box Office” tab on these movies' The Numbers (https://www.the-numbers.com/) pages will be used to resolve this market once the values for the 3-day opening weekend (December 18 - December 20) are final (i.e., not studio estimates).
If both movies report the same gross for the 3-day opening weekend, this market will resolve in favor of the movie whose title comes first in alphabetical order.
Please note, this market will resolve according to the The Numbers figures provided under Weekend Box Office Performance for the 3-day weekend (which typically includes Thursday's previews), regardless of whether domestic refers to only the USA, or to USA and Canada, etc.
If there is ambiguity as to whether the resolution source's figures are final, this market will remain open until both https://www.boxofficemojo.com/ and https://www.the-numbers.com/ have confirmed their finalized figures.
If there is no final data available by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.
If the release date for one movie changes, this market will resolve to the movie which grosses more in its opening weekend once opening weekend figures for both movies are finalized.
If the release of either movie is delayed beyond February 28, 2027, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to 50-50.
If both movies report the same gross for the 3-day opening weekend, this market will resolve in favor of the movie whose title comes first in alphabetical order.
Please note, this market will resolve according to the The Numbers figures provided under Weekend Box Office Performance for the 3-day weekend (which typically includes Thursday's previews), regardless of whether domestic refers to only the USA, or to USA and Canada, etc.
If there is ambiguity as to whether the resolution source's figures are final, this market will remain open until both https://www.boxofficemojo.com/ and https://www.the-numbers.com/ have confirmed their finalized figures.
If there is no final data available by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.
If the release date for one movie changes, this market will resolve to the movie which grosses more in its opening weekend once opening weekend figures for both movies are finalized.
If the release of either movie is delayed beyond February 28, 2027, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to 50-50.
Volume
$53,378End Date
Dec 20, 2026Market Opened
Jan 5, 2026, 5:46 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Avengers: Doomsday commands overwhelming trader consensus at 94.9% implied probability thanks to explosive advance ticket sales exceeding $35 million, more than double the pace of recent MCU benchmarks like Deadpool & Wolverine, and tracking estimates pointing to a $260–300 million domestic opening. The film’s multiverse-scale ensemble, Robert Downey Jr. as Doctor Doom, and broad family appeal position it as the year’s premier event release, echoing the record-breaking momentum of prior Avengers crossovers. Dune: Part Three benefits from franchise-critical acclaim, strong pre-sales momentum toward a potential $100 million-plus debut, and exclusive IMAX access, yet faces steeper barriers against Marvel’s wider theatrical footprint and marketing reach. With both titles locked for December 18, final tracking updates and holiday positioning will test whether any late surge narrows the gap.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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