OpenAI’s recent GPT-6 Astra launch on September 3 has driven the 77.5% market-implied probability that it fields the top Code Arena WebDev model by month-end. The new large language model quickly claimed the #1 spot on arena.ai’s crowdsourced Elo leaderboard with a 1,797 score, 35 points ahead of Anthropic’s Claude Fable 5.1, by excelling at agentic frontend workflows that test multi-step reasoning, tool use, and iterative web development tasks. Trader consensus reflects this fresh benchmark dominance and OpenAI’s positioning of Astra for software engineering, while Anthropic’s 19.5% price acknowledges its prior consistency but notes the recent gap. Other labs trail with lower scores and fewer votes, though competitive releases from Alibaba and Moonshot keep minor upside in play before the September 30 resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedOpenAI 77.5%
Anthropic 20%
SpaceXAI <1%
ByteDance <1%
$120,230 Vol.
$120,230 Vol.
Sep 30, 2026
OpenAI
78%
Anthropic
20%
SpaceXAI
1%
ByteDance
1%
Alibaba
1%
Z.ai
<1%
Meta
<1%
<1%
Moonshot
<1%
MiniMax
<1%
Xiaomi
<1%
DeepSeek
<1%
Thinky
<1%
Tencent
<1%
Poolside
<1%
Mistral
<1%
OpenAI 77.5%
Anthropic 20%
SpaceXAI <1%
ByteDance <1%
$120,230 Vol.
$120,230 Vol.
Sep 30, 2026
OpenAI
$17,762 Vol.
78%
Anthropic
$50,260 Vol.
20%
SpaceXAI
$5,474 Vol.
1%
ByteDance
$1,123 Vol.
1%
Alibaba
$7,389 Vol.
1%
Z.ai
$4,740 Vol.
<1%
Meta
$2,922 Vol.
<1%
$4,324 Vol.
<1%
Moonshot
$19,211 Vol.
<1%
MiniMax
$1,119 Vol.
<1%
Xiaomi
$657 Vol.
<1%
DeepSeek
$2,690 Vol.
<1%
Thinky
$560 Vol.
<1%
Tencent
$571 Vol.
<1%
Poolside
$641 Vol.
<1%
Mistral
$789 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve according to the company that owns the model that has the highest rank based on the arena.ai Code Arena | WebDev Leaderboard when the table under "Code Arena | WebDev" filtered for "Models" is checked on September 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Code Arena | WebDev" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/code/webdev (Overall) filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by which model is listed higher on the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Code Arena | WebDev Leaderboard. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".OpenAI’s recent GPT-6 Astra launch on September 3 has driven the 77.5% market-implied probability that it fields the top Code Arena WebDev model by month-end. The new large language model quickly claimed the #1 spot on arena.ai’s crowdsourced Elo leaderboard with a 1,797 score, 35 points ahead of Anthropic’s Claude Fable 5.1, by excelling at agentic frontend workflows that test multi-step reasoning, tool use, and iterative web development tasks. Trader consensus reflects this fresh benchmark dominance and OpenAI’s positioning of Astra for software engineering, while Anthropic’s 19.5% price acknowledges its prior consistency but notes the recent gap. Other labs trail with lower scores and fewer votes, though competitive releases from Alibaba and Moonshot keep minor upside in play before the September 30 resolution.
This market will resolve according to the company that owns the model that has the highest rank based on the arena.ai Code Arena | WebDev Leaderboard when the table under "Code Arena | WebDev" filtered for "Models" is checked on September 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Code Arena | WebDev" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/code/webdev (Overall) filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by which model is listed higher on the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Code Arena | WebDev Leaderboard. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Code Arena | WebDev" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/code/webdev (Overall) filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by which model is listed higher on the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Code Arena | WebDev Leaderboard. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Market Opened: Jul 20, 2026, 7:23 PM ET
Volume
$120,230End Date
Oct 1, 2026Market Opened
Jul 20, 2026, 7:23 PM ETResolution Source
https://arena.ai/leaderboard/code/webdevResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the company that owns the model that has the highest rank based on the arena.ai Code Arena | WebDev Leaderboard when the table under "Code Arena | WebDev" filtered for "Models" is checked on September 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Code Arena | WebDev" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/code/webdev (Overall) filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by which model is listed higher on the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Code Arena | WebDev Leaderboard. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".OpenAI’s recent GPT-6 Astra launch on September 3 has driven the 77.5% market-implied probability that it fields the top Code Arena WebDev model by month-end. The new large language model quickly claimed the #1 spot on arena.ai’s crowdsourced Elo leaderboard with a 1,797 score, 35 points ahead of Anthropic’s Claude Fable 5.1, by excelling at agentic frontend workflows that test multi-step reasoning, tool use, and iterative web development tasks. Trader consensus reflects this fresh benchmark dominance and OpenAI’s positioning of Astra for software engineering, while Anthropic’s 19.5% price acknowledges its prior consistency but notes the recent gap. Other labs trail with lower scores and fewer votes, though competitive releases from Alibaba and Moonshot keep minor upside in play before the September 30 resolution.
This market will resolve according to the company that owns the model that has the highest rank based on the arena.ai Code Arena | WebDev Leaderboard when the table under "Code Arena | WebDev" filtered for "Models" is checked on September 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Code Arena | WebDev" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/code/webdev (Overall) filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by which model is listed higher on the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Code Arena | WebDev Leaderboard. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Code Arena | WebDev" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/code/webdev (Overall) filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by which model is listed higher on the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Code Arena | WebDev Leaderboard. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Volume
$120,230End Date
Oct 1, 2026Market Opened
Jul 20, 2026, 7:23 PM ETResolution Source
https://arena.ai/leaderboard/code/webdevResolver
0x69c47De9D...OpenAI’s recent GPT-6 Astra launch on September 3 has driven the 77.5% market-implied probability that it fields the top Code Arena WebDev model by month-end. The new large language model quickly claimed the #1 spot on arena.ai’s crowdsourced Elo leaderboard with a 1,797 score, 35 points ahead of Anthropic’s Claude Fable 5.1, by excelling at agentic frontend workflows that test multi-step reasoning, tool use, and iterative web development tasks. Trader consensus reflects this fresh benchmark dominance and OpenAI’s positioning of Astra for software engineering, while Anthropic’s 19.5% price acknowledges its prior consistency but notes the recent gap. Other labs trail with lower scores and fewer votes, though competitive releases from Alibaba and Moonshot keep minor upside in play before the September 30 resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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